Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

Plant processing strategies and their affect upon starch grain survival when rendering Peltandra virginica (L.) Kunth,Araceae edible

There is a long history of human interaction with plants of the Aroideae subfamily (Araceae). Despite these plants' chemical defenses against animal and vegetal predation, humans have targeted their starchy corms, tubers and rhizomes for dietary purposes. In the Eastern Woodlands of North America, early Europeans described the Native population as utilizing the highly acridic Peltandra virginica (arrow arum) for subsistence needs. In order to render this resource edible, however, the acridic principle first needs to be eliminated. Our study investigates the affect these processing activities have on the integrity of arrow arum starch grains. Findings from this study demonstrate that environmental variables specific to individual processing procedures may be more influential on starch grain survival than simply the temperatures reached during cooking.     

Neural Network Modeling of Constrained Spatial Interaction Flows: Design, Estimation, and Performance Issues

In this paper a novel modular product unit neural network architecture is presented to model singly constrained spatial interaction flows. The efficacy of the model approach is demonstrated for the origin constrained case of spatial interaction using Austrian interregional telecommunication traffic data. The model requires a global search procedure for parameter estimation, such as the Alopex procedure. A benchmark comparison against the standard origin constrained gravity model and the two–stage neural network approach, suggested by Openshaw (1998), illustrates the superiority of the proposed model in terms of the generalization performance measured by ARV and SRMSE.     

The Making of “World‐Class” Delhi: Relations Between Street Hawkers and the New Middle Class

Urban India is undergoing transformation as formal electoral politics increasingly favors the new middle class. Scholarship tends to compartmentalize the politics of the new middle class and the poor, and this article focuses on inter‐class relations. By focusing on relations between street hawkers and the new middle class in Delhi, I show that rather than engaging in zero‐sum conflicts over urban space, conflict is typically over the terms of its use. The analysis shows that these classes are interdependent; the poor depend on the new middle class for their livelihoods, and the lifestyles of new middle class are enabled by services provided by the poor. While the poor enable and participate in Delhi's transformation into a so‐called “world‐class” city, the reconciliation of competing visions of urbanization—one geared toward social reproduction and the other subsistence—is what is at stake in contemporary inter‐class relations.     

Dog Wars and Human Rights: Perceptions of Political Despotism at the End of the Ancien Regime

During the political crisis in the Salzburg archiepiscopacyat the end of the eighteenth century there was an increase inthe number of violent clashes between huntsmen and poachersin the forest areas. The huntsmen exacerbated the anger of therural communities by shooting dead any farm dogs they foundrunning free. The farmers, for their part, ignored the decreewhich had been in force since the sixteenth century that theyshould either chain their dogs up or restrict their freedomwith a Knüppel, a large piece of wood attached to the neckto hinder their chasing after game. These attacks by the huntsmenwere felt by the peasants to be an arbitrary abuse of politicalpower, and a threat to their farms. They were angered both thatthis limited the ability of the dogs to do their duty in guardingthe farms, and also by the way the dogs' natural guarding instinctswere being undermined. They thought of men and their animalsas different creatures, but they were forced to acknowledgethat the restriction of the dogs' freedom was also an attempton their own liberty. The Dog Wars crystallized a conflict aroundtraditional feudal symbols of subjugation. They show how theimages that the ruling and the ruled had of each other beganto crumble and give way to mutual mistrust. The Salzburg farmershad no need of revolutionary agitators to see that the archiepiscopalstate was moribund. They had their own yardsticks, first andforemost poaching, with which to measure the effective limitsset to their freedom by the state. They were not party to thecontemporary intellectual debates on human rights, but the violenceto their dogs was a clear sign to them of the revolutionaryspirit of the times. The notion of human rights did not enjoylinear growth, but itself progressed by way of conflict. Andthis notion should not be limited to the human condition only—itmust be extrapolated beyond the ideological fixations of thenineteenth and twentieth centuries. In the context of the historyof dogs—man's longest-standing companion, after all—‘human’rights take on a different hue, relativized and yet somehowmore clearly defined.