Book reviews

Richard Higgott, The Evolving World Economy: Some Alternative Security Questions for Australia. Canberra Papers on Strategy and Defence No. 51. Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University 1989. 90 pp. $10.00.

Andrew Mack and Paul Keal (eds), Security and Arms Control in the North Pacific. Sydney, Allen and Unwin Australia, 1989. xiii + 324 pp. $39.95 (cloth), $27.50 (paper).

Francis Stuart, Towards Coming of Age. A Foreign Service Odyssey. Centre for the Study of Australian‐Asian Relations, Griffith University, 1989. vi + 264 pp. $12.00.

Bruce S. Bennett, New Zealand's Moral Foreign Policy 1935–39: The Promotion of Collective Security Through the League of Nations. Wellington, New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, 1988. vii + 134 pp. $NZ21.00.

E.E. Azar and Chung‐In Moon (eds), National Security in the Third World, The Management of Internal and External Threats. Aldershot, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1988. 308 pp. £25.00.

Robert P. Haffa Jr, Rational Methods, Prudent Choices: Planning US Forces. Washington D.C., National Defense University Press, 1988. xv + 165 pp. No price given.

William Bunge, Nuclear War Atlas. Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1989. 204 pp. $29.95.

David H. Price, Atlas of World Cultures. A Geographical Guide to Ethnographic Literature. Newbury Park, California, Sage Publications, 1989. 156 pp. $US35.00.

Richard Sakwa, Soviet Politics: An Introduction. London and New York, Routledge, 1989. xvi + 356 pp. $120.00.

Terence Thomas (ed.), The British, Their Religious Beliefs and Practices 1800–1986. London and New York, Routledge, 1988. vii + 247 pp. $82.95 (doth), $29.95 (paper).

Robert A. Scalapino, Seizaburo Sato, Jusuf Wanandi and Sung‐joo Han (eds). Asia and the Major Powers. Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy. Berkeley, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1988. vi + 386 pp. $US20.00.

Robert A. Scalapino, Seizaburo Sato, Jusuf Wanandi and Sung‐joo Han (eds). Asian Security Issues. Regional and Global. Berkeley, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1988. vi + 394 pp. $US20.00.

Robert A. Scalapino and Dalchoong Kim, Asian Communism, Continuity and Transition. Berkeley, Korea Research Monograph 15, Center for Korean Studies, Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, 1988. vi + 364 pp. $US20.00.

Ngok Lee, China's Defence Modernisation and Military Leadership. Canberra, Australian National University/Pergamon Press, 1989. xxi + 395 pp. No price given.

David G. Mart and Christine P. White (eds), Postwar Vietnam: Dilemmas in Socialist Developments. Ithaca, NY, Southeast Asia Program, Cornell University, 1988. 248 pp. $US12.00.

Philip Eldridge, NGOs in Indonesia: Popular Movement or Arm of Government? Working Paper 55, The Centre of Southeast Asian Studies, Monash University. 59 pp. $6.00.

Saw Swee‐Hock. The Population of Peninsular Malaysia. Singapore: Singapore University Press, 1988. xv + 342 pp. $US32.00 (doth), $US25.00 (paper).

Colin Legum, The Battlefronts of Southern Africa. New York, Africana Publishing Company, 1988. xxiv + 451 pp. No price given.

Morris H. Morley, Imperial State and Revolution: The United States and Cuba, 1952–1986. Melbourne; Cambridge University Press, 1987. ix + 571 pp. $51.00.     

Fitting Constrained Poisson Regression Models to Interurban Migration Flows

This paper demonstrates the effects of fitting singly and doubly constrained spatial interaction models using the Poisson regression approach. A large data set containing migration flows between labor market areas in Great Britain in 1970–71 is used. The results of fitting unconstrained, singly constrained, and doubly constrained models are compared with respect to goodness of fit and the interpretability of parameter estimates. The addition of other explanatory variables to the model is also explored.     

Modeling Migration Careers,Using Data from a British Survey

Development of more sophisticated techniques for modeling longitudinal data has implications for improving our understanding of migration. This paper uses longitudinal data from the British Social Change and Economic Life initiative to disentangle the effects of population heterogeneity, progress through the life cycle and secular change on observed migration differentials. The data consist of retrospective life histories from people sampled in several contrasting localities in Great Britain, in which residential moves can be linked to changes in occupation and household structure. We present a framework for analysis of data of this type using a generalized linear modeling approach, together with results concerning variations in the probability of migration with age, gender, and changes in household and occupational circumstances. Of particular note is the evidence of substantial duration-of-residence effects and an unexpected later-career increase in migration propensity.     

After Augustine,after Markus: the problem of the secular at the end of antiquity

This article revisits Robert Markus's account of the de-secularization of the Latin West between Augustine and Gregory the Great. It uses letters of advice for rulers written by early sixth-century clerics to contest his narrative of a ‘grand simplification’ of Christian thought. Multiple overlapping conceptions of the secular were still in play after the fall of Rome, articulated, not in the absence of, but in dialogue with robust political institutions. By uncoupling Christian ideas of secularity from the actual degree of religious pluralism or tolerance in a given society, historians can better capture the continued complexity of early medieval secularities.     

A Framework for Inserting Visually Supported Inferences into Geographical Analysis Workflow: Application to Road Safety Research

Road safety research is a data-rich field with large social impacts. Like in medical research, the ambition is to build knowledge around risk factors that can save lives. Unlike medical research, road safety research generates empirical findings from messy observational datasets. Records of road crashes contain numerous intersecting categorical variables, dominating patterns that are complicated by confounding and, when conditioning on data to make inferences net of this, observed effects that are subject to uncertainty due to diminishing sample sizes. We demonstrate how visual data analysis approaches can inject rigor into exploratory analysis of such datasets. A framework is presented whereby graphics are used to expose, model and evaluate spatial patterns in observational data, as well as protect against false discovery. Evidence for the framework is presented through an applied data analysis of national crash patterns recorded in STATS19, the main source of road crash information in Great Britain. Our framework moves beyond typical depictions of exploratory data analysis and transfers to complex data analysis decision spaces characteristic of modern geographical analysis.     

Representing Structural Change in U.S. Migration Patterns

This paper focuses on the identification of three sets of relationships exhibited by a time series of age-specific national migration rates and multiregional transition probability matrices: the relationship across time for the same age group, as defined by period (temporal) transformation coefficients or matrices; the relationships across age at a particular moment in time, as defined by age transformation coefficients or matrices; and the relationships across time and age, as defined by cohort transformation coefficients or matrices. Given any two of these relationships one can solve for the third. This feature of age-period-cohort relationships has a practical application in the development of improved methods for representing structural change in migration patterns over time and for indirectly estimating migration patterns using inadequate data.