The Modi lahar (wave) in the 2014 Indian national election: A critical realignment?

In India's 2014 general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured an outright majority of seats, the first time any party has done so since 1984. This has led to claims that this is a ‘critical’ or ‘realigning’ election. Yet, most Indian elections are initially described as ‘critical’ elections, which suggests that this concept needs to be further refined to be analytically useful in India's electorally volatile and regionalised political context. This commentary conceptualises critical elections in India as those that enable the winning party to build lasting regional social coalitions. Such coalitions need to be consolidated in subsequent elections for a realignment to take place. A mastery of regional politics was crucial to the BJP's 2014 win, which does mark this as a potentially realigning election. Yet, questions remain about its ability to consolidate the coalitions that delivered this result.

2014年的普选中,印度人民党获得了绝对多数的议席,破了1984以来各政党的记录。这被看作一次“关键性”的、改弦易辙的选举。不过,印度的选举一开始也多被说成“关键性”的选举。所以,这个概念尚需推敲,以便能够用来分析印度变幻不定的选情以及地区化的政情。本文将印度的“关键性”选举界定为获胜党得建立长久的地区社会联盟。这个联盟需要在日后的选举中加固,才谈得上改弦易辙。把握好地区政治对于人民党2014年选举的胜利至关重要,它使得这次选举成为潜在的改弦易辙。但它是否有能力加固联盟以释放改弦易辙的效果,则还是一个问题。     

The rise of the Indo-Pacific: understanding ideational change and continuity in India's foreign policy

In 2011, the concept of the Indo-Pacific began to appear in India's foreign policy discourse. This article argues that rather than signalling a dramatic shift in India's foreign policy, however, the way in which the Indo-Pacific has been interpreted by the Indian leadership suggests significant continuity as well as change, which is contrary to the goals of the concept's most fervent proponents in India. The article seeks to develop a framework for understanding ideational change and continuity in foreign policy by theorising the interplay between ideas, political and economic flux, and social expectations related to effective and legitimate state-building. It is argued that the Indo-Pacific concept has instigated a new emphasis on regional architecture-building to manage the ongoing regionalisation in the area between the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a result of heightened trade flows and production and investment linkages. Yet, the Indo-Pacific concept, like the new policy ideas on regional engagement that preceded it—the Look East policy and the ‘extended neighbourhood’—has been articulated in ways that are also compatible with long-standing ideas—such as non-alignment—about what constitutes appropriate international behaviour. This reflects the nature of the broader state project that has emerged since 1990, which, while encompassing a new focus on economic growth and competitiveness as being essential to effective state-building, continues to prioritise older ideas about what constitutes effective and legitimate state-building.     

Trump,the authoritarian populist revolt and the future of the rules-based order in Asia

In this short article, the authors analyse the implications of the election of Donald Trump for the future of the liberal rules-based order, with specific emphasis on its implications for the Asian region. Departing from the institutional fetishism that figures prominently in the literature, the authors argue that this liberal order needs to be conceptualised in terms of its social foundations. Particularly important to consider, in terms of understanding these social foundations, is the nature of social relations in the USA. The election of Trump reflects the deep crisis of the US state and the rise of a new ‘authoritarian populism’. The authors trace the roots of this authoritarian populism to patterns of global capitalist transformation, the crisis of the US state and the modes of crisis management that this has generated. They then explore the implications of Trump’s authoritarian populism for the region.