Multipolar governance and global imbalances

The deficiency of financial regulation and the presence of large macroeconomic global imbalances should be considered complementary interpretations of the global economic and financial crisis. The risk we face is that a new expansionary phase will bring back large and growing external imbalances, which will keep world growth on an unsustainable path. At the international level there is a classical ‘collective action’ problem to address since if export growth oriented strategies are pursued by all major countries they will generate a deflationary bias in world demand. This article explores how multilateral cooperation and international institutions can become reengaged with, and provides a meaningful device for addressing, these new issues and problems. It is necessary to restore shared rules of the game for international macroeconomic adjustment. This means endorsing a strengthened surveillance regime for the IMF in order to induce more compatible macroeconomic policies. In this regard, the IMF should have enforcement rule incentives and mechanisms, otherwise we are going to repeat past negative experiences where peer pressure did not produce significant results.     

ON THE ROLE OF ROAD NETWORKS IN REDUCING HUMAN LOSSES AFTER EARTHQUAKES

A road-network reliability analysis for a scenario seismic event is performed for a region of southern Italy characterised by a large number of small to medium municipalities quite close to each other and served by a dense network of roads. Among the many functions of the road network, whose links may fail after an earthquake due to the collapse of the bridges within them, the one selected for the present study is that of allowing rescue operations to be carried out at the sites of collapsed schools. For this to be possible, connection must be maintained between schools that survived, rescue centres and hospitals. Required elements for the study are the fragility curves of the bridges, the schools, the hospitals and the rescue centres. Output of the study is the expected value of the fraction of the total population in the area that is in need of assistance and cannot be hospitalised due to either failure of the network or other vulnerable components.     

ARCHAEOSEISMOLOGY IN ITALY: CASE STUDIES AND IMPLICATIONS ON LONG-TERM SEISMICITY

Four Italian cases from central Apennines and central-eastern Alps show how the use of archaeoseismology and paleoseismological investigations on deformed archaeological remains may improve the knowledge on long-term seismicity. In the Fucino Plain (central Apennines), the displacement of a Roman canal (built during the lst-2nd century AD) was caused by the movement of one of the active faults affecting the basin. The paleoseismological analysis and available archaeological data permitted to date the event at the 5th-6th century AD and to hypothesise that this earthquake was also responsible for significant damage to the Colosseum in Rome shortly before 508 AD. At the Egna site (Bolzano province, northern Italy), the displacement of a Roman building has been paleoseismologically investigated. It probably resulted from surface faulting, thus permitting to hypothesise the occurrence of strong earthquakes in an area for which seismicity does not show significant historical earthquakes. In the Sulmona Plain (central Apennines) the occurrence of a strong event around the middle of the 2nd century AD is testified by ah epigraph. Widespread evidence of building, collapses and abandonments characterise a number of archaeologically investigated sites and confirm the age of occurrence inferred from the epigraph. In the Trento area (northern Italy), evidence of earthquake-induced damage to medieval buildings suggests that the earthquake which affected northern Italy in 1117 may have been responsible for significant damage also in the Adige Valley. Gained experience indicates that in areas where historical research does not contribute significantly to the knowledge of the effects of strong earthquakes, the use of archaeological evidence of past earthquakes may be a valuable tool to obtain information on the historical seismicity related to moderate-large magnitude events.     

QUICK SURVEY OF THE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF DAMAGE ENHANCEMENT OBSERVED IN SAN GIULIANO AFTER THE 2002 MOLISE,ITALY SEISMIC SEQUENCE

On October 31 and November 1, 2002, two earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 and 5.3 hit the area at the border between the Molise and Puglia regions in Southern Italy. The damage pattern in the epicentral area qualified the quake as an intensity VII MCS event, although providing a notable exception relevant to the small village of San Giuliano di Puglia. Since the first macroseismic survey, it appeared clear that in S. Giuliano the intensity was two degrees higher with respect to three neighbouring villages located within a radius of 3 km. Soon after the quake, our team started a campaign of microtremor HVSR measurements (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio), then we installed accelerometers and carried out damage and geological surveys. Finally, we performed a geoelectrical tomography and two profiles of Vs velocity with depth using the NASW technique (Noise Analysis of Surface Waves). The preliminary observations indicate that ground motion amplification is present in S. Giuliano within the frequency band that may affect building. A strong velocity contrast 20 m deep causes the predominant peak. More amplification could be due to more complicated, 2D effects. As regards the damage pattern, it divides S. Giuliano in three zones showing different characteristics and seismic behaviour. A building-by-building survey is still under way to better evaluate vulnerability variations in different zones of the village. However, the acquired data so far is sufficient to propose site amplification as a possible cause of the damage enhancement observed in S. Giuliano.     

EXPERIMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL CYCLIC DAMAGE OF FRAMED R/C STRUCTURES

It is accepted that failure criteria for earthquake-resistant structures should be based on energy dissipation as well as on maximum ductility. Even though rational procedures to include low-cycle fatigue in the definition of the design spectra have been derived, major difficulties arise in the definition of the cyclic damageability of the structure. The work conducted so far was mainly based on cyclic tests conducted on simple structural elements, therefore, the extension to the complete structure is not an easy task. A final cyclic test was conducted at the ELSA reaction wall facility on a four-storey full-scale reinforced concrete frame designed according to Eurocode 8, at the end of a series of pseudodynamic tests. The results allow the performance during the pseudodynamic tests to be assessed and the cyclic damageability of a complete structure to be investigated. The effects of low-cycle fatigue on a high-ductility structure turned out to be more important than expected.     

A radiocarbon chronology for the aceramic shell-middens of coastal Oman

Our knowledge of the prehistory of coastal Oman has greatly increased during the last ten years. This article considers the radiocarbon chronology of the aceramic shell-middens scattered along the coast between Muscat, to the north, and Shuwayr, to the south. The appearance of these middens seems to correspond to the climatic deterioration that, according to more recent results, took place around the middle of the seventh millennium BP. The number of sites seems to have increased since the beginning of the actual arid phase, around 6000 BP.     

The acid test? Competing theses on the nationality – democracy nexus and the case of Switzerland†

ABSTRACT. This article deals with the connection between nationality and democracy and explores the role Switzerland plays in the scholarly debate on this question. It identifies three main theses – liberal‐nationalist, liberal‐multinationalist and liberal‐postnationalist – and shows that each of them uses the Swiss case to claim empirical support. It then analyses the connections between nationality and democracy in Switzerland and demonstrates that the country is neither multinational nor postnational, but is best characterised as a mononational state. These findings expose the fallacy of using Switzerland to claim support for either the multinational or the postnational thesis and call for a reconsideration of them. Additionally, they show that “civic nationalism” and “civic republicanism” can be conflated and that a predominantly civic nation is viable and sustainable and is not necessarily an ethnic nation in disguise. The Swiss case thus provides qualified empirical support for the liberal‐nationalist thesis.     

An Early Palaeolithic site near Saiwan (Sultanate of Oman)

The Author describes a lithic assemblage attributable to the Early Palaeolithic, discovered in the winter of 1984–85 near Saiwan in central-eastern Oman. The chert assemblage, characterized by large-sized artefacts with plain, sloping, striking platform, various types of hand-axes, side scrapers and cores, is probably to be attributed to a late phase of the Acheulian Culture.