The futures of ethnic groups in the Russian Federation

The changes, sometimes dramatic, in the size and structure of the ethnic groups of the Russian Federation (RF) raise questions about their possible futures. The paper presents simulations of how ethnic groups of the RF could develop in the future and discusses the demographic aspects of the predicted changes. The simulations cover a 25-year period, from 1 January 2011 to 1 January 2036 and were prepared for the 22 most numerous ethnic groups using a multistate cohort-component population dynamics model. To prepare the assumptions for the simulations, ethnicity-specific data (no longer collected) on fertility, mortality, and international migration were used. The results indicate that in the coming 20 years Russia will face numerous challenges related to the changes in the size, age structure, and ethnic composition of its population. The population of the RF will age and, except in the “Modernization” scenario, will shrink. Non-Slavic and Muslim populations will increase their share in the total population at the expense of Slavic and Orthodox ethnic groups and will age more slowly.     

The Shaking Frequency Effect in the Dynamics of a Model Sandy Layer

Experimental results showing the frequency-dependent behavior of both dry and saturated sandy layers subjected to a horizontal excitation on a shaking table are presented. The largest settlements of a dry layer correspond to two specific frequencies. In the case of a saturated layer, there is a single peak frequency corresponding to the largest depth of sinking of a measuring plate in liquefied subsoil. The first peak of settlements coincides with the single peak of sinking in liquefied soil. The eigenfrequencies of the layer were estimated. A modification of the compaction law was proposed for low shaking frequencies.     

Evolution of small valley mire in central Poland as a result of hydroclimatic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the results of analyses of Cladocera, pollen, plant macrofossil, lithological and radiocarbon data recovered from a mire located in the Rawka River valley in central Poland. These studies permit to recognise the development of hydrology phases in Kopanicha mire and give insight into Holocene fluvial dynamics of the system; radiocarbon dating partly allowed da-ting of the patterns of Holocene valley floor development of the Rawka River. The Kopanicha mire was formed during the Atlantic period. At that time, an oxbow lake formed, becoming a mire during the Subboreal and possibly Subatlantic periods. The high sensitivity of the oxbow lakes, fens, fauna, and flora remains to climate variations - especially to changes in water level connected with the ag-gradation-erosion cycle of rivers - allows the reconstruction of the palaeoecological changes that oc-curred in the mire. The frequency and timing of hydroclimatic oscillations at Kopanicha show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland. Changes in Cladocera frequency and plant assem-blages were mostly influenced by the Rawka River which controlled the hydrological regime of the mire. The main factors controlling the presence of Cladocera taxa were the water level and the pres-ence of favourable conditions in the mire (e.g. pH, vegetation). Most of the changes occurred in re-sponse to climate changes, but some of them were connected with local factors.     

The age of the subfossil trunk horizon in deposits of the Warta River valley (central Poland) based on <Superscript>14</Superscript>C dating

The present study focuses on investigations carried out in the Late Vistulian succession of the Warta River deposits (central Poland) in which a horizon of subfossil trees was excavated. Prelim-inary conclusions on time record and past environmental conditions of a forest existence determined from radiocarbon dating, pollen analyses and geological evidence appear promising with view of tree-ring chronologies.     

Some Remarks on a Tenth-Century Paraphrase of the “Epitome de Caesaribus”1

This article analyses several passages from a tenth-century paraphrase of the Epitome de Caesaribus, an anonymous and epitomized collection of imperial lives originally produced around the year 400. The analysis shows that among the many textual changes of linguistic, stylistic and ideological nature, errors did also occur during the rewriting process. The author explores some possible approaches to these passages.     

HOW TO REINVENT THE FUTURE?

This review essay discusses the historical Zeitdiagnosen in recent scholarly literature, focusing in particular on Jérôme Baschet's Défaire la tyrannie du présent: Temporalités émergentes et futurs inédits (2018). Baschet's book constitutes an original contribution to ongoing debates about our temporal condition in at least three aspects. First, although relying partly on earlier theoretical literature (principally the works of François Hartog), it more significantly draws on the author's long-term engagement with the Zapatista movement. Second, it does not confine itself merely to diagnosing our temporal situation (presentism) but proposes strategies for exiting it. And finally, Baschet's theory of temporality is one part of his far more extensive enterprise of “exiting capitalism,” a project aimed at reconceptualizing the existing foundations of Western civilization. Although previous authors have defined our contemporary regime of temporality by focusing on the present and the disappearance of the future, Baschet claims that it is more accurate to speak about a burgeoning of futures—of completely new modalities of the future that differ significantly from modernist notions of it.     

Innovation,Tourism and Destination Development: Dolnośląskie Case Study

Abstract

There is more to success in destination development than just natural or cultural heritage and assets. Increasing globalization and changes in the realm of tourism, both in supply and demand, helped to identify and recognize new development factors. Skilful application of various drivers and mobilization of stakeholders around well-defined development objectives may bring unique results in terms of creating a multidimensional, complex and innovative mega-product. Until now, public administration has been unable to identify timely innovative features and the high promotional and social potential in the Palaces and Gardens Valley project. Instead, the main drivers behind its success have, therefore, to be sought outside public policies, among new development factors utilized by private sector and non-governmental organizations. However, in the long run, recently intensifying close cooperation of public and private bodies is a condition of further development of the project in question.