TUNING OF SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATES BY MEANS OF OBSERVED SITE INTENSITIES

Probabilistic seismic hazard is usually assessed by means of computer codes using seis-mogenic sources, parametric catalogues, seismicity rates and attenuation relationships. All these ingredients are conditioned by expert judgement that influences the final results. Even the attenuation relationships, though strictly based on experimental data, are considered a weak point due to the difficulty of modelling the interaction between seismic energy radiation and site response, and because earthquakes do not usually repeat themselves according to one theoretical model. Recently, methods making wide use of site intensity data have been developed in regions such as Italy, where the observed seismic history at selected sites is quite exhaustive. We analyzed these observations to assess seismic hazard at about 600 sites. We used a probabilistic counting technique, integrating the observations (when necessary), with computed shakings obtained from a logistic-type attenuation model. The results were then compared with the estimates provided by the recent seismic hazard map of Italy, compiled according to the traditional probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The match shows significant differences for some sites. A tentative explanation which seems to point to three alternatives is provided: (1) The mismatch between the two methodologies might appear because the stationary assumption has a poor fit with reality (at least in certain areas); (2) Some sites show a response that is systematically different from the average values predicted using attenuation relationships; (3) The definition of seismogenic zones leads to a bias in the seismicity rate estimate.     

Thermal waters of ‘tectonic origin’: the alkaline,Na‐HCO3 waters of the Rio Valdez geothermal area (Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego,Argentina)

The geothermal area of Rio Valdez is located in the central portion of the Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego (South Argentina), ten kilometers south of the southeastern sector of the Fagnano Lake. It consists of a series of thermal springs with low discharge rates (≤1 L/s) and temperatures in the range of 20–33°C distributed in an area of <1 km². The thermal springs are characterized by alkaline, Na‐HCO₃ waters with low salinity (0.53÷0.58 g/L), but relatively high fluoride contents (up to 19.4 mg/L). Their composition is the result of a slow circulation at depth, possibly through deep tectonic discontinuities connected with the Magallanes‐Fagnano Fault (MFF) system. According to geothermometric calculations, thermal waters reach temperatures in the range of 100–150°C and an almost complete chemical equilibrium with the alkali‐feldspars in the metavolcanic country rocks. The relatively high fluorine contents can be explained by the slow ascent and cooling of deep groundwaters followed by a progressive re‐equilibration with F‐bearing, hydrated Mg‐silicates, such as chlorite, which has been recognized as an abundant mineral in the metavolcanics of the Lemaire Formation and metapelites and metagraywackes of the Yahgán Formation. Finally, the isotopic composition of the investigated samples is consistent with the infiltration from local snow melting at altitudes in the range of 610–770 m asl. The comparison of our data with those collected in 1991 seems to suggest a possible progressive decline of the bulk thermal output in the near future. This possibility should be seriously considered before planning a potentially onerous exploitation of the resource. Presently, the only ways to exploit this geothermal resource by the population scattered in the area are the direct use of thermal waters and/or spa structures.     

QUICK SURVEY OF THE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF DAMAGE ENHANCEMENT OBSERVED IN SAN GIULIANO AFTER THE 2002 MOLISE,ITALY SEISMIC SEQUENCE

On October 31 and November 1, 2002, two earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 and 5.3 hit the area at the border between the Molise and Puglia regions in Southern Italy. The damage pattern in the epicentral area qualified the quake as an intensity VII MCS event, although providing a notable exception relevant to the small village of San Giuliano di Puglia. Since the first macroseismic survey, it appeared clear that in S. Giuliano the intensity was two degrees higher with respect to three neighbouring villages located within a radius of 3 km. Soon after the quake, our team started a campaign of microtremor HVSR measurements (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio), then we installed accelerometers and carried out damage and geological surveys. Finally, we performed a geoelectrical tomography and two profiles of Vs velocity with depth using the NASW technique (Noise Analysis of Surface Waves). The preliminary observations indicate that ground motion amplification is present in S. Giuliano within the frequency band that may affect building. A strong velocity contrast 20 m deep causes the predominant peak. More amplification could be due to more complicated, 2D effects. As regards the damage pattern, it divides S. Giuliano in three zones showing different characteristics and seismic behaviour. A building-by-building survey is still under way to better evaluate vulnerability variations in different zones of the village. However, the acquired data so far is sufficient to propose site amplification as a possible cause of the damage enhancement observed in S. Giuliano.     

HINTS ABOUT SITE AMPLIFICATION EFFECTS COMPARING MACROSEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATE WITH MICROTREMOR MEASUREMENTS: THE AGRI VALLEY (ITALY) EXAMPLE

We approach from a new standpoint the problem of estimating seismic hazard for some towns and villages located in Val d'Agri area (Southern Italy) that in the past have been affected by several seismic events. The estimates are carried out using a method that is based on the analysis of site seismic history extracted from macroseismic catalogues. To study the influence of site effects two different procedures have been performed: in the first, seismic hazard estimates have been deduced from epicentral data only, in the second, intensity data actually observed at the site are also considered. The difference between the two estimates can be correlated with local variations of seismic response due to local geological features which are responsible for possible cases of amplification. In order to validate the presence of such correlation, seismic hazard estimates have been compared to site amplification measurements obtained by using the HVSR (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio) technique. Our findings reveal a good correlation between seismic hazard enhancements and the presence of site amplification effects. The application of this kind of analysis to the Val d'Agri area has pointed out that the joint estimates of site seismic hazard enhancement and HVSR measurements could be a helpful tool to identify problems related to seismic microzonation.     

A FIBRE FINITE BEAM ELEMENT WITH SECTION SHEAR MODELLING FOR SEISMIC ANALYSIS OF RC STRUCTURES

The paper describes the formulation of a non-linear, two-dimensional beam finite element with bending, shear and axial force interaction for the static and dynamic analysis of reinforced concrete structures. The hysteretic behaviour of “squat” reinforced concrete members, in which the interaction between shear and flexural deformation and capacity is relevant for the overall structural performance, is emphasised. The element is of the distributed inelasticity type; section axial-flexural and shear behaviours are integrated numerically along the element length using a new equilibrium-based approach. At section level a “hybrid” formulation is proposed: the axial-flexural behaviour is obtained using the classic fibre discretisation and the plane sections remaining plane hypothesis, the shear response instead is identified with a non-linear truss model and described with a hysteretic stress-strain relationship. The latter contains a damage parameter, dependent on flexural ductility, that provides interaction between the two deformation mechanisms. The element has been implemented into a general-purpose finite element code, and is particularly suitable for seismic time history analyses of frame structures. Analytical results obtained with the model are compared with recent experimental data.     

RELIABILITY AND APPLICABILITY OF NAKAMURA'S TECHNIQUE USING MICROTREMORS: AN EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

Nakamura's technique has been widely discussed from the theoretical point of view. Very little information is available as far as the experimental, on-the-field standpoint is concerned. A series of experiments under controlled conditions were set up to assess the reliability and applicability range of this microtremor technique. Since this approach to microzonation is particularly appealing in urban environments, great care was devoted to evaluate the influence of factors such as anthropic noise, concrete or asphalt coverings and soil-structure interaction. Environmental factors (wind) and the influence of sensors were also considered. The results were compared with the seismic response from four earthquakes. The set of experiments shows that under proper measurement conditions Nakamura's technique provides stable and reliable results, but great care has to be devoted to avoid factors that may significantly and adversely affect the results.     

THE TECHNOLOGICAL AND TYPOLOGICAL BEHAVIOUR OF A NEANDERTHAL GROUP FROM EL SIDRÓN CAVE (ASTURIAS,SPAIN)

This paper presents the first detailed analysis of the lithic industry from El Sidrón Cave. Previously we have published other works concerning Anthropology and Palaeogenetics. The lithic assemblage contains 415 artefacts coming from both unofficial and official excavations and is largely flake‐based. The raw material derives from the immediate cave environment, and is mostly chert, with quartzite in a lesser proportion. To date, 67 artefacts have been refitted, including some tools and cores. The spatial distribution of the refitted lithic artefacts confirms, on the one hand, the unity of the assemblage and, on the other, its secondary context.     

Multiple Suburban Publics: Rethinking Community Opposition to Consolidation in Sydney

Since the late 1980s urban consolidation has become the dominant strategic planning paradigm across Australian cities; however, sites of densification are increasingly becoming sites of community resistance and conflict. In the context of the Sydney Metropolitan Strategy, this paper explores Ku‐ring‐gai in Sydney's northern suburbs as a site of community resistance centred on opposition to urban consolidation. Moving beyond more traditional constructions of community resistance as a form of NIMBYism, we present here a typology of community resistance groups and explore the complex relationships between these groups, which are used to challenge development. In addition we draw on understanding of urban publics to explore the ways in which these groups attempt to engage and act on behalf of a diverse set of publics operating across scales.