Nuclear doctrines and stable strategic relationships: the case of south Asia

This article offers a discussion of nuclear doctrines and their significance for war, peace and stability between nuclear‐armed states. The cases of India and Pakistan are analysed to show the challenges these states have faced in articulating and implementing a proper nuclear doctrine, and the implications of this for nuclear stability in the region. We argue that both the Indian and Pakistani doctrines and postures are problematic from a regional security perspective because they are either ambiguous about how to address crucial deterrence related issues, and/or demonstrate a severe mismatch between the security problems and goals they are designed to deal with, and the doctrines that conceptualize and operationalize the role of nuclear weapons in grand strategy. Consequently, as both India's and Pakistan's nuclear doctrines and postures evolve, the risks of a spiralling nuclear arms race in the subcontinent are likely to increase without a reassessment of doctrinal issues in New Delhi and Islamabad. A case is made for more clarity and less ambition from both sides in reconceptualizing their nuclear doctrines. We conclude, however, that owing to the contrasting barriers to doctrinal reorientation in each country, the likelihood of such changes being made—and the ease with which they can be made—is greater in India than in Pakistan.     

Meteorological Sub‐divisional Scale Rainfall Monitoring Using Kalpana‐1 VHRR Measurements

Geostationary satellites provide measurements over a wider geographical area with high temporal sampling, while microwave measurements are more accurate but sparse. For continuous monitoring of the Indian monsoon, geostationary platform would be ideal. In this study, INSAT (Indian National Satellite) Multi‐spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) has been used for the estimation of rainfall from Kalpana‐1 very high resolution radiometer (VHRR) measurements. IMSRA benefits from the relative advantages of infrared and microwave sensors and is operational at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In this paper, rainfall is estimated over India at meteorological sub‐divisional scale during the south‐west monsoon season of 2009 using Kalpana‐1 satellite measurements. This is the first experimental attempt to generate meteorological sub‐divisional scale rainfall maps using Kalpana‐1 satellite measurements. The rainfall maps for the south‐west monsoon season over the Indian land region are successfully utilised as a space input for the drought monitoring of the year 2009. The results have been compared with the IMD gauge‐based accumulated rainfall maps at monthly and seasonal time scales. The qualitative comparison suggests that rainfall maps generated using the present methodology is in good agreement with the IMD rainfall maps. The quantitative comparison of the sub‐divisional monthly accumulated rainfall shows a correlation of 0.77 and standard error of 71 mm over the non‐orographic regions, whereas a correlation of 0.60 and standard error of 117 mm is observed over the orographic regions. The present study shows that Kalpana‐1 satellite‐based rainfall estimates (IMSRA technique) can act as a complementary tool for the monsoon monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub‐divisions and can be used for various meteorological and hydrological applications.