A Comparison of Spatially Varying Regression Coefficient Estimates Using Geographically Weighted and Spatial‐Filter‐Based Techniques

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a technique that explores spatial nonstationarity in data‐generating processes by allowing regression coefficients to vary spatially. It is a widely applied technique across domains because it is intuitive and conforms to the well‐understood framework of regression. An alternative method to GWR that has been suggested is spatial filtering, which it has been argued provides a superior alternative to GWR by producing spatially varying regression coefficients that are not correlated with each other and which display less spatial autocorrelation. It is, therefore, worthwhile to examine these claims by comparing the output from both methods. We do this by using simulated data that represent two sets of spatially varying processes and examining how well both techniques replicate the known local parameter values. The article finds no support that spatial filtering produces local parameter estimates with superior properties. The results indicate that the original spatial filtering specification is prone to overfitting and is generally inferior to GWR, while an alternative specification that minimizes the mean square error (MSE) of coefficient estimates produces results that are similar to GWR. However, since we generally do not know the true coefficients, the MSE minimizing specification is impractical for applied research.     

War widows and revenge in Restoration England

This article examines petitions submitted by royalist widows to the House of Lords during the first few months of the Restoration. The husbands of these women had been tried and executed for treason during the 1640s and 1650s for their perceived loyalty to the royalist cause, prompting their spouses to demand retribution against their judges and jurors. As the Convention Parliament deliberated over the Act of Indemnity during the summer of 1660, these aggrieved widows were presented with an opportunity to ensure that the men they held responsible for their husband’s deaths were brought to account. By assessing the petitioning strategies adopted by these women and the government’s responses to their demands, the article throws light on a group of war widows who have received little scholarly attention. It is argued that whilst these women were largely unsuccessful, their efforts represent a significant aspect of female activism during the seventeenth century.     

The religious geography of Marvell’s “An Horatian Ode”: popery,presbytery, and parti-coloured picts

ABSTRACT

Marvell’s “Ode” (1650) is an English poem about a British problem – a problem further problematized by religion. The “Ode” lauds Cromwell’s Irish and Scottish campaigns, but English responses to these “colonial” wars were in reality complicated by protestant infighting among presbyterians, independents, and sectarians. Writers like Milton and Nedham rallied English support for Cromwell’s Irish campaign by recycling Spenserian stereotypes of Irish catholic barbarity. But Milton and Nedham also undercut English protestant unity by flinging these same anti-catholic stereotypes at Scottish presbyterians in Belfast and Edinburgh. Departing from previous studies, this article argues that Marvell’s “Ode” eschews Milton and Nedham’s anti-Presbyterianism in ways calculated to elide, rather than divide, protestant communities. The article explores how the “Ode” presents Cromwell’s Irish and Scottish campaigns as exclusively anti-catholic (rather than anti-presbyterian) crusades, comparing Marvell’s presentation of Cromwell in the “Ode” with his identification of Cromwell as an anti-catholic crusader in “First Anniversary” (1655). Both poems anticipate in this respect Marvell’s later anti-catholic, but pro-nonconformist, approach to Ireland in Rehearsal transpros’d (1672–1673). The article is therefore concerned to root Marvell’s post-Restoration commitment to protestant tolerationism within the anti-catholic language of the “Ode”.     

The Multiple Testing Issue in Geographically Weighted Regression

This article describes the problem of multiple testing within a Geographically Weighted Regression framework and presents a possible solution to the problem which is based on a family‐wise error rate for dependent processes. We compare the solution presented here to other solutions such as the Bonferroni correction and the Byrne, Charlton, and Fotheringham proposal which is based on the Benjamini and Hochberg False Discovery Rate. We conclude that our proposed correction is superior to others and that generally some correction in the conventional t‐test is necessary to avoid false positives in GWR.     

From adversaries to allies: ethnic gerrymandering and ethnic party behaviour in local elections in Macedonia

Constitutional designers often construct political institutions to provide greater autonomy to ethnic minority groups. One tool available to constitutional designers is ‘ethnic gerrymandering’, where the boundaries of local government units are altered to provide greater representation to minority groups. This paper analyses the effects of changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities, which occur as a result of ethnic gerrymandering, on ethnic party behaviour. I compare ethnic party behaviour in local elections in the Republic of Macedonia from 2000 to 2013. I expand on a theory initially proposed by Sherrill Stroschein linking ethnic demography to ethnic party behaviour. I find that changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities influence whether rival ethnic parties engage in outbidding or whether ethnic communities unite behind a single ethnic party. My findings have important implications for those tasked with designing political institutions in ethnically divided societies.