COMPUTATION OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF GRAVITY MODEL PARAMETERS*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents the derivations of several new algorithms for the computation of maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of a very general form of the gravity model. The algorithms are then compared with previously available algorithms including GLIM and that given in Sen (1986). One of the new algorithms emerges as far superior in just about every way to its competitors. In particular, it is usually much more than an order of magnitude faster than the GLIM procedure and that given in Sen (1986). It is also not substantially affected by pitfalls such as multicollinearity and (unlike the GLIM procedure) is capable of comfortably handling large O-D matrices.     

GRAVITY MODEL APPLICATIONS IN HEALTH PLANNING: ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN HOSPITAL MARKET*

ABSTRACT. In this paper a gravity model is formulated to model a hospital patient flow system. Both spatial and nonspatial measures of separation are used to estimate the model. Travel time was found to provide improved fits over linear distance in modeling patient flow behavior. Transformations of travel time (square root and log) were found to improve model performance further. Model diagnostics suggested additional spatial separation measurw, separation measure parameters demonstrated stability over time. The model is used to forecast the effects of health care financing reform and hospital closure on patient flows in an urban hospital market. Universal health coverage was found to dramatically improve access to hospital services for lower income patient populations. Hospitals at risk for closure were forecast to receive increased patient flows. Medical school hospitals are expected to lose patients after implementation of health reform, with important implications for graduate medical education. Hospital closures were shown to have negative effects on access to services in poor neighborhoods, but relatively little effect on access in the system as a whole.     

宋钱版别研究珍贵史料——读叶适《淮西论铁钱五事状》

叶适（1150～1223）,字正则,学者称水心先生,浙江永嘉（今浙江温州）人,为南宋著名思想家、文学家、政论家,是与朱熹的道学派、陆九渊的心学派并列为南宋三大学派的永嘉学派的集大成者和主要代表。南宋淳熙五年（1178）,叶适以进士第二名及第,后历任吏部员外郎、吏部侍郎、江东安抚使兼沿江制置使等职,官至宝文阁学士、光禄大夫。     

序

在中国学术界,印度华侨华人研究几近空白。在沈丹森博士（Tansen Sen）的建议和帮助之下,本刊特别组织编辑了本期“印度华侨华人专题”。     

胡适的容忍论

胡适的自由思想中容忍具有极为重要的地位.胡适认为容忍既是一种自由的精神,又是一种民主的精神,是自由的根本.一个社会缺乏容忍,自由就不会有保障.社会只有容忍不同的思想存在,容忍有不同的声音,才能使人人都有思想的自由.胡适极力反对不容忍,主张容忍异己,容忍反对党.胡适还强调,一个社会缺少容忍精神,必定会产生唯我主义,走向极权专制.胡适终身奉行容忍,在朋友中倡导互相容忍,反对各种不容忍.     

北齐逢哲墓志出土地点辨正

出土于清末的逢哲墓志是以珍罕见称的北齐志石,向为学者们重视。本文从志文中提到的地理名称、逢哲里籍、逢氏家族成员活动地点以及墓志的形制特征等方面考证,认为该墓志出土于山东青州,并非沂水,从而解决了多年来该墓志出土地点不能确断的疑惑。     

Embedding the War on Terror: State and Civil Society Relations

The global war on terror was used by the Bush administration and its allies to defend a US dominated geopolitical configuration. To this end, counter‐terrorism measures (CTMs) were introduced which strengthened the alignment of development aid with diplomacy and defence. The broad, adverse effects of CTMs on civil liberties and human rights are well documented. Despite the advent of a new US administration and a ‘soft power’ approach to international relations, the legacy of the war on terror remains embedded in the laws, policies and attitudes of many states and regimes that continue to enclose the lives of citizens. This article describes the experiences of civil society organizations (CSOs) as ‘securitization’ processes unfolded. Studies over two years involving some forty countries provide an on‐the‐ground view to probe the gains and losses of securitization, both for governments in the US‐led ‘coalition of the willing’ and for civil society in terms of the pressures emerging from a development‐for‐security agenda. The authors identify some of the perverse zero‐sum effects on governments of CTM philosophy and the means employed. Findings also show asymmetry between northern and southern CSOs in terms of their negative‐sum subordination, found in the definition of security and in the vulnerability to new risks involved in undertaking development work.     

美丽缤纷的玉树彩帐

青藏高原的神秘和文化之美,无处不在.譬如帐篷这一高原藏民用以栖身的特殊居所,也是大有讲究,带着高原特有的神秘和浓浓的藏传佛教色彩.     

The Second Transmission of Buddhism in Tibet

In the late Tubo period,it was not uncommon for Tibetan kings (btsan-po) to die violently or unnaturally,as this period saw tense political conflicts between the Tubo rulers.After Dhar-ma was murdered in 842 CE,his senior wife,sNa-nams,helped her adopted son Yum-brtan obtain the btsan-po throne.     

Tibetan Buddhism in the Tubo Period

After Buddhism entered Tibet,its special form of Tibet,called as "Tibetan Buddhism".Prior to the advent of Buddhism,the native religion of Tibet was Bon.The Bon religion had similarities to the witchcraft practiced in the hinterland of China.In dealing with any sort of mystery and to avoid misfortune,the Bonists performed rituals involving prayer,the consultation of oracles,and exorcism.Bonists also relied on such rituals to cure illness while performing funeral rites.