Public policy,local labor demand,and migration in Sweden, 1979-84

"A model of private local labor demand and interjurisdictional migration is presented and estimated using data from Swedish counties and municipalities for 1979-84. Our goal is to compare the effects on local labor markets of distinctive public-sector programs with those of traditional market variables. We find that local income taxes and tax-equalization grants have important effects on local labor markets; regional development policy measures and geographical-mobility subsidies do not. Thus, recent efforts scaling back some of these programs may not materially alter the regional economy's performance. Wages and other traditional market variables are also often found to influence significantly local labor markets."     

MUNICIPAL AMALGAMATION AND THE GROWTH OF THE LOCAL PUBLIC SECTOR IN SWEDEN*

ABSTRACT. The proposition that a decentralized structure of local governments can effectively constrain public sector growth is empirically investigated. Data on Swedish municipal sector size for the 1942–87 period are analyzed within the context of a median voter model. The results indicate that decentralization, measured by the number of units of local government serving a given population, constrains the influence of institutional factors (e.g., rent seeking, bureaucracy) on local budgets as long as these units exceed some minimal threshold size. The findings support the view that communities should be given the flexibility to determine their own ideal pattern of local governments.     

THE JOY OF GEOGRAPHY*

I may be the first past president of the cag to come to the podium with two addresses ready for delivery. One is rather lengthy and formal, representative of some of my work during the last decade or so. The second is shorter and lighter in tone, rather personal, but hopefully it will be taken in the spirit in which it is offered.
I have, of course, been thinking about this address for months. A number of people have suggested that I should discuss topics of common interest, including resources management, historical geography, national parks and public land, conservation, cultural ecology, and the Canadian Arctic. In urging me to address these topics colleagues provided various reasons, ranging from neglect of the subject in Canadian geography to its relevance to public policy. I am grateful for this advice, which has not, however, prevented me from procrastinating in finally deciding upon a topic.     

A Most Unmanly War: British Military Masculinity in Macedonia,Mesopotamia and Palestine, 1914–18

This article argues that the most severe crisis of masculinity among British and Dominion soldiers in the First World War did not take place on the Western Front. Instead, British and Dominion soldiers serving on the war's sideshows in Macedonia, Mesopotamia and Palestine believed most acutely that their manliness was in question. Unlike soldiers on the Western Front, they were not battling the main German Army, they were not fighting to liberate occupied France and Belgium, and their war was not to preserve the rights of small nations and the inviolability of international law. This article explores how military masculinity played out much differently on the war's peripheral fronts in two ways. First, it suggests that where a soldier fought mattered more to military masculinity than a soldier's method of enlistment or any other variable. British and Dominion soldiers were fully aware that the home front only considered France and Flanders as the real war, and they actively argued against this misconception to loved ones and in their memoirs. Second, this article demonstrates an additional crisis of masculinity on the war's peripheral fronts: the lack, or more often effacement, of non‐white colonial (Eastern Mediterranean and Arab) women. Not only was British and Dominion military masculinity under assault on the war's peripheral fronts, heteronormative sexual relations were also being transformed in a world where few, if any, racially acceptable women were available.     

Antonin Scalia and the Dilemma of Constitutional Originalism

Antonin Scalia has had a very significant and healthy impact on the way people talk about American constitutional law. Thanks largely to Justice Scalia’s forceful and eloquent voice, originalism is now so respectable that even those who seek to advance an aggressive and progressive “living constitution” frequently find it prudent to pose as expositors of the Constitution’s original meaning. Scalia’s substantial effect on the terms of debate in constitutional law, however, is not likely to be matched by a comparable influence on the future of the law itself. Apart from political realities that affect appointments to the Court, originalism faces obstacles that have deep historical roots. This essay explores those obstacles before considering two examples that suggest why Scalia’s originalism is unlikely to make a decisive contribution to the reformation in constitutional law that he sought.     

Assessing Quality of Spatial Models Using the Structural Similarity Index and Posterior Predictive Checks

Model assessment is one of the most important aspects of statistical analysis. In geographical analysis, models represent spatial processes, where variability in mapped output results from uncertainty in parameter estimates. Slight spatial misalignments can cause inflated error scores when comparing maps of observed and predicted variables using traditional error metrics at the level of individual spatial units. We conceptualize spatial model assessment as a continuous value map comparison problem and employ methods from image analysis to score model outputs. The structural similarity index, a measure that attempts to replicate the human visual system using a local region approach, is used as an exploratory map comparison statistic. The measure is implemented within a Bayesian spatial modeling framework as a discrepancy measure in a posterior predictive check of model fit. Results are reported for simulation studies representing a variety of spatial processes in a spatial and space–time context. A case study of rainfall mapping in Sri Lanka demonstrates the proposed methodology applied to assessment of Bayesian kriging interpolations. Both simulation studies as well as the case study demonstrate that the approach reveals hidden spatial structure not uncovered by traditional methods. The spatially sensitive assessment methodology provides a diagnostic tool to support spatial modeling and analysis. La evaluación de modelos es uno de los aspectos más importantes de análisis estadístico. En el análisis geográfico, los modelos representan procesos espaciales en los que la variabilidad en los outputs es el resultado de la incertidumbre en los parámetros estimados. Leves desajustes espaciales pueden inflar los valores de error en la comparación entre los mapas de las observaciones y los mapas de las predicciones de las variables si es que se usan medidas tradicionales de medición de error al nivel de unidades espaciales individuales. Los autores conceptualizan la evaluación de modelos espaciales como un problema de comparación mapas de valor continuo y emplea métodos de análisis de imágenes para cuantificar los resultados del modelo. Se utiliza el índice de similitud estructural (SSIM), una medida que intenta replicar el sistema visual humano utilizando un enfoque de región local, como técnica de exploratoria comparación estadística de mapas. El índice es implementado dentro de un marco de modelización espacial bayesiano como medida de discrepancia en la comprobación posterior de predicción del desempeño del modelo. Los resultados se presentan para varios casos de simulación que representan una serie de procesos espaciales en un contexto espacio‐temporal y espacial. Un estudio de caso de mapeo de lluvias en Sri Lanka sirve como demostración de la metodología propuesta y su aplicación a la evaluación de las interpolaciones tipo krigeage (kriging) bayesianas. Tanto los estudios de simulación, así como el estudio de caso demuestran que el enfoque propuesto revela la estructura espacial oculta no evidenciada por métodos tradicionales. La metodología de evaluación espacialmente sensible que se presenta en este artículo proporciona una herramienta de diagnóstico para apoyar la elaboración de modelos y análisis espacial. 模型评估是统计分析中最为重要的内容之一。在地理分析中用模型表达空间过程,参数估计的不确定性会导致地图输出结果的可变性。当采用传统误差指标度量,在个体空间单位水平上进行观测和预测变量的地图比较时,微小的空间错位就可能导致误差的倍增。为此,本文通过将空间模型评估指标概念化为一个连续值图比较问题,并利用图像分析方法来评定模型输出。一种尝试以局域方法仿制人类视觉系统的度量指标——结构相似指数(SSIM),被用作为探索性地图的比较统计量。在贝叶斯空间模型框架下实现其量算,并将其作为一个偏差度量应用于模型拟合的后预测校验。仿真研究的结果显示出空间及时空环境下多类空间过程。以斯里兰卡降雨过程图为案例,展示了上述方法对贝叶斯克里格插值的准确性评估。仿真研究与实证结果均证明本文提出的方法可揭示以往传统方法掩盖的空间结构特征,空间敏感性评价为本研究的空间建模和分析提供了一个诊断工具。