Nuclear disarmament versus peace in the twenty‐first century*

In his analysis of the continuing necessity for Britain to retain its nuclear capability, the author argues that the purpose of the British nuclear deterrent is what it has always been—‘to minimize the prospect of the United Kingdom being attacked by mass destruction weapons’. His discussion ranges from the ethical paradox surrounding the possession of nuclear weapons, the central problem of their predictability, the problem of new threat and, in his view, the Utopian non‐proliferation obligations. The possession of the deterrent may be unpleasant, he concludes, but it is necessary, its purpose lying‘not in its actual use but in its nature as the ultimate “stalemate weapon”.’     

THE EFFECTIVE DURATION OF EARTHQUAKE STRONG MOTION

The duration of strong ground shaking during earthquakes can play an important role in the response of foundation materials and structures, particularly when strength or stiffness degradation is encountered. A thorough seismic hazard assessment should therefore include an estimation of the expected duration of strong motion, which first requires criteria to define the part of an accelerogram considered to represent the duration of strong ground motion. Some 30 different definitions of strong motion duration are reviewed and classified into generic groups. Problems that arise with the use of these definitions for duration are highlighted. A new definition of duration is presented using a previously unexplored option which identifies the part of the record where the main energy is contained and constrains this strong shaking phase by absolute criteria. This new definition is shown to give consistently meaningful durations for strong earthquake accelerograms from an engineering viewpoint. The correlations between the new definition of duration and magnitude, soil conditions and distance are explored as a first step towards the development of predictive equations.     

THE RAW MATERIALS OF EARLY GLASS PRODUCTION

This paper discusses raw materials used in ancient glasses. Following a consideration of some archaeological reasons for studying glass, the discussion concentrates on the evidence provided by chemical analysis of the glass, and focuses on glass from later prehistoric Western Europe. Consideration of the major, minor and trace components of the glass leads to a conclusion that prehistoric glass artisans were able closely to control the addition of small quantities of colorants, opacifiers and clarifiers to the glass melt. Some possible ways of introducing such small quantities of these substances are suggested. A related implication is that glass production in prehistoric Europe was a mainly specialist industry, being part of a 'high-status'socio-economic sphere. When interpreting technical analyses a full consideration of the socio-economic niche occupied by the glass industry is urged.     

Continuity and change: prospects for civil—military relations in Turkey

Early indications suggest that the appointment of General Yaþar Büyükanýt as chief of the Turkish general staff (TGS) at the end of August 2006 marked a new era in civil‐military relations in the country. Yet it would be a mistake to see the military's more forthright attitude under Büyükanýt simply as a return to the past. Civil‐military relations in Turkey have always been characterized by a combination of continuity and change. Both the legal basis for and the TGS's own perceptions of the role and responsibilities of the military have remained unchanged for over 70 years. However, the extent and the manner in which the military has influenced politics have always varied. In recent years the TGS's ability to ensure that government policy remains within acceptable parameters has been primarily based on its public prestige rather than the prospect of a full‐blooded military coup. Although the TGS has always been the most respected institution in the country, the Turkish public's willingness to tolerate, or even to encourage, its assumption of a more active political role has traditionally varied according to changes in the prevailing domestic political circumstances: falling during times of stability and confidence and rising during times of uncertainty. In early 2007 both the country and the government of the moderately Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP) appeared to have lost momentum and direction. In such an environment, and in the continued absence of an eff ective political opposition, many Turks will once again look to the country's military to prevent the JDP from increasing its control over the apparatus of state, starting with the appointment of a new president in April 2007. To date the JDP has always backed down in the face of pressure from the TGS. However, whether it will continue to do so, and what the TGS can or will do if the JDP defies its warnings, currently all remain unclear.