UNRAVELLING THE POPULATION TURNAROUND IN RURAL CANADA

This paper attempts to unravel the rural population turnaround in Canada through a disaggregation and analysis of rural growth rates by (1) two decades, 1961–71 and 1971–81, (2) the farm and non-farm components of rural population, (3) provincially based regions, and (4) area types based on proximity to urban centres. Following a discussion of the various definitional and boundary-matching issues arising from the use of the Census of Canada, results are presented in tabular and map form. Although rural growth rates did in all likelihood exceed urban rates in the 1970s, the extent of this turnaround is undoubtedly exaggerated in the census data, primarily because of definitional and reclassification effects. Moreover, setting aside data-related anomalies, there is strong evidence that much of this rural population growth was in fact ‘spillover’ from urban centres. Cet essai traite du virage pris par la population rurale au Canada au moyen d'une décomposition et d'une analyse des taux de croissance rurale où interviennent(1) les deux décennies 1961–71 et 197 1–81, (2) les com-posantes agricoles et non-agricoles de la population rurale, (3) les régions définies sur une base provinciale, et (4) les types de zones établies à partir de la proximité par rapport aux centres urbains. Les problèmes de définition et de démarcation d'aires comparables soulevés par I'utilisation des données du Recensement du Canada sont abordés en premier lieu. Puis, les résultats sont présentés sous forme de cartes et de tableaux. Bien que les taux de croissance rurale aient, selon toute vraisemblance, dépassé les taux urbains dans les années 70, I'ampleur de ce virage réulte sans doute d'exagérations dans les données du recensement, prin-cipalement attribuables aux effets de délimitation et de reclassification. De plus, mises à part les anomalies relatives aux données, il y ade bonnes raisons de croire que cette croissance de la population rurale provient en grande partie du décongestionnement des centres urbains.     

Collapse,Sustainability, and the Environment: How Authors Choose to Fail or Succeed

Collapse is a perennial topic among historical scholars, and a favorite source of lessons for our future. Collapse literature often reflects contemporary fears and aspirations. The four books discussed here mirror today's concern with anthropogenic environmental degradation and climate change, and for better or worse, influence a reading public far beyond the academy. Two books focus on an individual collapse—the Classic Maya—and two aspire to a broader treatment. They are unequally successful in their outcomes.     

OBTAINING PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF DISPLACEMENT ON A LANDSLIDE DURING FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

The assessment of earthquake triggered landslide hazard may be undertaken using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques. Probabilistic methods have been developed because much of the data can be considered as random variables where parameters such as the angle of internal friction and moisture content do not have a single fixed value but may assume any number of values across a range. This random variability can be modelled by a probability density function (PDF) which describes the relative likeli-hood that a random variable will assume a particular value. Instead of using just the average or expected value of an input parameter, the complete range of possible values can be used to estimate a range of possible outcomes. Thus the probability of a slope being unstable can be obtained rather than a single indicator of stability. Such proba-bilistic analyses allow for the incorporation of the likely variability of each parameter and therefore allow a more intimate assessment of slope stability to be derived. Utilising empirical relationships for calculating earthquake ground motions and associated slope displacement, an investigation was undertaken to identify the contribution that modern simulation techniques could make to the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides. To achieve this, geotechnical and earthquake data obtained from a deep-seated landslide triggered during the M _w 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake was used. By incorporating the variability of the geotechnical parameters and the uncertainty in earthquake location the model derived the probabilities associated with increasing amounts of slope displacement during future probable earthquakes. Analysis was undertaken for four of the principal fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area. These estimates were then combined with the occurrence probabilities of the earthquakes to provide temporal estimates of dis-placement for a 30 year period. Results indicated that a M _w 7.0 earthquake located on the Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas fault was most hazardous with a 11% chance of minor slope displacement (≥0.10 m) and a 6% chance of moderate slope displacement (≥0.30 m) within the next 30 years.     

Public Gifts and Political Identities: Sir Richard Acland, Common Wealth, and the Moral Politics of Land Ownership in the 1940s

Richard Acland's political career with the Common Wealth Partyhas formed an important reference point in debates on the characterof popular politics during the 1940s, as well as a larger narrativeof the influence of radicalism in British public life. WhilstAcland's subsequent career as a moral educationalist and peacecampaigner has been largely ignored, his postwar fame dependedheavily on his celebrated transfer of substantial landed estatesto the National Trust at a key point in his public life. Wesuggest that this famous ‘gift’ was the result ofcomplex calculations in which Acland sought to maximize thepolitical capital from this private asset. The authorized familyversion of this transaction was also the product of a personalstruggle within the family. It is possible to interpert Acland'scampaigns as a belated attempt by a provincial landowner toreverse the declining influence of the gentry by the promotionof a fresh moral politics which was beset by the contradictionsof Acland's leadership as well as by organizational failures     

Southern Irish Protestants: an example of de‐ethnicisation?

ABSTRACT. The study of minorities is central to research in ethnicity and nationalism. But there are cases where the precise nature of the minority is not easy to determine. One view of Southern Irish Protestants is that in the decades after independence they transformed themselves (or were transformed) from British nationals to Irish nationals or, alternatively, from a British ethnic to an Irish religious minority. This paper argues that treating the (past) British dimension of Irish Protestant identity as ethnic or national misconceives it and overlooks the historically deep Irish context of Protestant identity. One consequence of this is the neglect of the specifically Irish roots of residual tensions in Catholic–Protestant relationships. The themes of the paper are exemplified with case material drawn from research on Protestants and Catholics in rural West Cork.     

FROM THE ECONOMIC TO THE POLITICAL: REGIONAL PLANNING IN WEST GERMANY

The resolution of regional disparities within the Federal Republic of Germany entails a complex redistributive process. Regional assistance policies initiated as wartime relief measures have, over time, incorporated classical incentive programs and revenue-sharing. Revenue transfers among the three levels of government are dynamic, arising from changes in the socioeconomic and political environment. Much of the spatial effect of regional policies is overshadowed by more extensive sectoral benefits.
La détermination des inégalités régionales au sein de la République fédérale allemande fait appel à un procédé complexe de redistribution. Des politiques d'aide régionale, introduites comme des mesures de secours en temps de guerre, sont devenues avec le temps des programmes classiques d'incitation et de partage des reVenus. Les transferts de revenu entre les trois niveaux de gouvernement constituent un mécanisme dynamique répondant aux changements dans le milieu socioéconomique et politique. L'influence spatiale résultant des politiques régionales est en grande partie éclipsée par l'expansion des avantages sectoriels.