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Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.  相似文献   
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National and international regulatory standards require industrial risk assessment, taking into account natural hazards including earthquakes, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). Seismic fragility analysis of industrial components may be carried out similarly as what has been done for buildings, even though some peculiar aspects require the development of specific tools. In the present paper a contribution to the definition of a rational procedure for seismic vulnerability assessment of standardised industrial constructions in a probabilistic framework is given. The method covers a range of components of the same structural type. Seismic reliability formulation for structures is used. Both seismic capacity and demand are considered probabilistic with the latter assessed by dynamic analyses. The application example refers to shell elephant foot buckling of unanchored sliding tanks. A regression-based method is applied to relate fragility curves to parameters varying in the domain of variables for structural design.  相似文献   
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