Reducing Errors in Rainfall Estimates through Rain Gauge Location

Facility location models are examined as a framework for generating rain gauge networks designed to reduce errors in mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimation. Errors in estimating MAP may be divided into two types: (i) capture error, not observing a storm which occurs in a gauged area, and (ii) extrapolation error, using a rain gauge measurement to represent a heterogeneous area. In this paper, five rain gauge location models are developed to minimize these errors. The models include adaptations of the maximal covering location problem, the p-median model, and three models derived from multicriteria cluster analysis. The models are tested using precipitation data from an experimental watershed maintained by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Arizona. Analysis of the results reveals, for the particular watershed, that (1) in sparse networks, location of rain gauges can play a larger role than number of rain gauges in reducing errors in MAP estimates; (2) models based on mean hydrologic data provide nearly as good networks as models based on spatially correlated data; and (3) models yielding the best networks for estimating precipitation for flood predictions are different from the models providing the best precipitation estimates for low flow forecasts.     

Book reviews

THE PHILIPPINES

FILOMENO AGUILAR. Clash of Spirits—the History of Power and Sugar Planter Hegemony on a Visayan Island. Ateneo de Manila University Press and University of Hawaii Press, 1998.

CHINA

BENJAMIN VANG. Deng: a Political Biography. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1997. 360 pp. Bibliography, index. US$59.95, hardcover; US$21.95, paper.

CHING KWAN LEE. Gender and the South China Miracle. Two Worlds of Factory Women. Berkeley, Los Angeles and London: University of California Press, 1998. xiii, 210 pp. Bibliography, index. £12.95, paper.

LINDA BENSON and INGVAR SVANBERG. China's Last Nomads: the History and Culture of China's Kazaks . New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1998. 270 pp. Index, photographs, maps, charts, bibliography. US$63.95, hardcover; US$ 24.95, paper.

JAPAN, KOREA

TESSA MORRIS‐SUZUKI. Re‐inventing Japan: time, Space, Nation. New York and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1998. US$21.95, paper.

DAVID MYERS and KOTAKU ISHIDO (eds). Japan at the Crossroads. Tokyo: Seibundo, 1998. xv, 253 pp. Bibliography. ¥3000, paper.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

LINDA CONNOR, PATSY ASCH and TIMOTHY ASCH.

Films: A Balinese Trance Séance (30 mins). Jero on Jero (16 mins). The Medium is the Masseuse (31 mins). Jero Tapakan (26 mins). Produced and distributed by the Ethnographic Film Unit, Department of Anthropology, RSPAS, ANU, Canberra. 16mm (VHS cassette). Colour. English subtitles. A$80.00.

CARL A. TROCKI (ed). Gangsters, Democracy, and the State in Southeast Asia. Ithaca: Cornell University Southeast Asia Program Publications, 1998. 94 pp. No price given, paper.     

Examining Critical Junctures in Macroeconomic Policy in Nondemocratic States: Algeria and Jordan in Comparative Perspective

The article uses the critical junctures framework in examining changes in macroeconomic policy in Algeria and Jordan during the late 1980s to determine if these policy changes constituted critical junctures. Both cases are significantly different from those studied previously using the framework, as neither state was a liberal democracy. The absence of democracy, and as a consequence of accountability, is a factor with which the critical junctures framework has not previously had to contend. This study will also enable us determine if the framework is sufficiently robust to be applied to the examination of macroeconomic policy changes in nondemocratic states. The findings show that in both countries political liberalization did not follow upon economic liberalization, giving lie to the often expressed assumption that economic liberalization and democratization go hand in hand. Instead, as the ruling elites in both countries sought to revive their economies, while maintaining their own positions in society, economic policy reforms required a gesture toward democratization but little else.