A Bayesian approach to rapid seismic vulnerability assessment at urban scale

The seismic vulnerability of city centers is commonly assessed by extending the study methods applied to single buildings to urban aggregations. This approach is not always applicable at territorial scale, as it is uneconomical in terms of time and costs. An innovative method provides reasonable large-scale a priori estimation of parameters not directly evaluable from the exterior of buildings by elaborating values which can be measured from the outside. Those parameters are treated as continuous variables, by assigning them a suitable probability density function. The Bayesian approach is adopted, which allows the update of initial hypotheses by using new data gathered during on-site surveys. In this regard, a rapid survey form for the on-site data collection is proposed. An example of its application to a façade of a building structural unit in Santo Stefano di Sessanio in L’Aquila province (Italy) is proposed, showing promising preliminary results for buildings belonging to Italian historical centers.     

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of RC Frame Structures Retrofitted with Controlled Concrete Rocking Column and Damping Technique

Acceleration response of simple yielding structure is proportional to its own weight, but it is limited by yield strength. Thus, using rocking columns that reduces global yield strength, a limited acceleration is achieved. However, the displacement becomes large due to lower strength and higher inelasticity, but it can be controlled by adding damping. Performing fragility analyses, the seismic response of R/C frame structures with rocking columns and viscous dampers is investigated. Near field MCEER ground motions are considered. The analyses show that the story accelerations are reduced by using rocking columns, while the story displacements are controlled by using viscous dampers.     

Party organisational change in Italy (1991–2006)

This article analyses, adopting the well-known approach of Katz and Mair, the issue of organizational change within Italian political parties since 1990. In addition to an account of trends in membership, local units, finances, staff, and of changes in party statutes, the article aims at testing the widespread view in the literature that organizational resources–hence power–are becoming more and more concentrated in the hands of party and/or parliamentary leaders, and correspondingly that the territorial presence of parties is declining. The analysis of the change over time of Katz and Mair's party organisational ‘faces’ leads to the confirmation, to a large extent, of the overall hypothesis of a decline of the party at ground level, and a concentration of party resources in the central office, and above all in the party in public office.     

The CIA’s paramilitary operations during the cold war: an assessment

Using a representative sample of CIA paramilitary operations during the Cold War, this essay identifies continuities and discontinuities among administrations and analyses the responses of the US press and Congress to paramilitary operations. It wrestles with the meaning of success and failure. Success is defined, first, in a narrow sense – did the operations achieve the objectives set by the president of the United States? Then, it is defined more broadly: did the CIA’s paramilitary operations serve the national interests of the United States?     

Using Discrete Event Simulation Models to Evaluate Resilience of an Emergency Department

Hospitals are critical infrastructures which are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, man-made disasters and mass causalities events. During the emergency, the hospital might also incur in structural and non-structural damage, have limited communication and resources, so they might not be able to treat the large number of incoming patients. For this reason, the majority of medium- and large-size hospitals have an emergency plan that expands their services quickly beyond normal operating conditions to meet an increased demand for medical care, but it is impossible for them to test it before an emergency occurs. The objective of this article is to develop a simplified model that could describe the ability of the Hospital Emergency Department to provide service to all patients after a natural disaster or any other emergency. The waiting time is the main response parameter used to measure hospital resilience to disasters. The analytical model has been built using the following steps. First, a discrete event simulation model of the Emergency Department in a hospital located in Italy is developed taking into account the hospital resources, the emergency rooms, the circulation patterns and the patient codes. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations show that the waiting time for yellow codes, when the emergency plan is applied, are reduced by 96%, while for green codes by 75%. Then, using the results obtained from the simulations, a general metamodel has been developed, which provides the waiting times of patients as function of the seismic input and the number of the available emergency rooms. The proposed metamodel is general and it can be applied to any type of hospital.     

How faculty recruitment shaped economic culture: the case of Italy 1900–1942

This article belongs to the area of university policy, viewed as an important example of the relationship between culture and power. As a case study, it utilizes the competitive exams for university chairs which took place in Italy for economic disciplines between 1900 and 1942. Interpreting the rules, the criteria and the outcomes of faculty recruitment, the article reconstructs an overall picture of the actors, themes and orientations, as well as the channels used to spread ideas. In this way, it clarifies important aspects of the influence exercised by the political sector over economic culture prior to and during fascism, in particular, in the formation of a consensus for government intervention in the Italian economy.