Hierarchical Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis of Childhood Cancer Trends

In this article, generalized additive mixed models are constructed for the analysis of geographical and temporal variability of cancer ratios. In this class of models, spatially correlated random effects and temporal components are adopted. Spatio‐temporal models that use intrinsic conditionally autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and B‐spline smoothing over the temporal dimension are considered. We study the patterns of incidence ratios over time and identify areas with consistently high ratio estimates as areas for further investigation. A hierarchical Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is employed for the analysis of the childhood cancer diagnoses in the province of Alberta, Canada during 1995–2004. We also evaluate the sensitivity of such analyses to prior assumptions in the Poisson context. En este artículo los autores construyen modelos aditivos generalizados mixtos (generalized additive mixed models) con el fin de analizar la variabilidad geográfica y temporal en las tasas de incidencia de cáncer. Este tipo de modelos emplean efectos aleatorios correlacionados espacialmente y componentes temporales. Los modelos espacio‐temporales emplean un suavizado condicional intrínseco autorregresivo (conditionally autoregressive smoothing) a través de la dimensión espacial y un suavizado de tipo B‐spline sobre la dimensión temporal. Los autores examinan los patrones de las tasas de incidencia a través del tiempo e identifican las áreas con valores consistentemente altos con el fin de sugerir áreas de investigación para el futuro. El estudio utiliza un enfoque jerárquico bayesiano (hierarchical bayesian) que usa una cadena de Markov Monte Carlo para evaluar los diagnósticos de cáncer infantil en la provincia de Alberta, Canadá durante el periodo 1995–2004. Asimismo, también se evalúa la sensibilidad de este tipo de análisis con respecto a los supuestos a‐priori, en el contexto de los modelos tipo Poisson. 本文提出了广义可加和混合模型进行癌症比率的地理和时间变化分析。在这类模型中引入了空间相关的随机效应和时间组分。时空模型在空间维度上采用本征自回归条件平滑,而在时间维度上则使用了B样条平滑。本文研究了疾病发生率模式,并识别出一直具有高比率估计的地区作为进一步调查区。在1995–2004年加拿大亚伯达省儿童癌症的诊断中,采用了基于马尔科夫链‐蒙特卡罗模型的分层贝叶斯方法,并且在泊松先验假设条件下评估了该类分析的敏感性。     

A Study of Transsexuality in Iran

Although transsexuality and change of sex might be considered a matter of personal choice, they have some socio-cultural causes and consequences. This article aims to examine these through the illustration of transsexuality in Iran. To this end, firstly, sexual transition and the legal system in Iran will be explained. Secondly, the methodology will follow. This study uses the survey method with two separate samples: 1) transsexuality policy makers and 2) forty individual cases of transsexuals. The findings reveal that while the Iranian legal system does not ban transsexuality and sexual transition, transsexuals suffering from gender identity disorder do encounter some social and cultural problems both in their private lives and publicly. The paper concludes with a summary of research findings, and sets out recommendations and study limitations.     

Knowledge-Based Performance Assessment of Existing RC Buildings

One of the most challenging aspects of the seismic assessment of existing buildings is the characterization of structural modeling uncertainties. Recent codes, such as Eurocode 8, seem to synthesize the effect of structural modeling uncertainties in the so-called confidence factors that are applied to mean material property estimates. The confidence factors are classified and tabulated as a function of discrete knowledge levels acquired based on the results of specific in-situ tests and inspections. In this approach, the effect of the application of the confidence factors on structural assessment is not explicitly stated. This work presents probabilistic performance-based proposals for seismic assessments of RC buildings based on the knowledge levels. These proposals take advantage of the Bayesian framework for updating the probability distributions for structural modeling parameters based on the results of tests and inspections. As structural modeling parameters, both the mechanical material properties and also the structural detailing parameters are considered. These proposals can be categorized based both on the amount of structural analysis effort required and on the type of structural analysis performed. An efficient Bayesian method is presented which relies on simplified assumptions and employs a small sample of structural model realizations and ground motion records in order to provide an estimate of structural reliability. As an alternative proposal suitable for code implementation, the simplified approach implemented in the SAC-FEMA guidelines is adapted to existing structures by employing the efficient Bayesian method. This method takes into account the effect of both ground motion uncertainty and the structural modeling uncertainties on the global performance of the structure, in a closed-form analytical safety-checking format. These alternative proposals are demonstrated for the case study structure which is an existing RC frame. In particular, it is shown how the parameters for the safety-checking format can be estimated and tabulated as a function of knowledge level, outcome of tests, and the type of structural analysis adopted.     

Women’s education,time use and marriage in Iran

In many parts of the world, higher education has increased female chances of paid work and reduced the economic benefits of marriage. In Iran, however, female labour force participation has remained in low rates despite considerable improvements in female education. In the absence of direct economic benefits of education for women, this paper uses data from the 2009 Time Use Survey, representing urban areas of Iran, to explore another pathway of the impact of education on transition to marriage. It is postulated that female education can lead to later marriage by changing women’s role priorities, at least in two ways. While enrolment in education is time-consuming and incompatible with requirements of marital life, higher education can increase the chances and desire for engagement in alternatives to the roles related to marriage. The findings provide partial support for both explanations. These findings not only deepen our understanding about differentials in the time use and the potential pathway of the impact of female education on marriage, but also provide important information for policy makers who are concerned with marital and fertility behaviours of the large cohort of young educated women in Iran.     

The Village in Contemporary Persian Poetry

This paper explores the ever-shifting symbiosis between the village motif, social justice and populist politics in Iran over the past three decades. The village has remained a recurring motif in Persian literature, employed by a variety of writers and state institutions for a range of means. As a symbol, it has been a conduit into which any ideology can be poured; the village allegory can be manipulated to both condemn and support the official policies of the state. A comparison of Iran’s pre- and post-revolutionary literature sheds light on the ways the state literati perpetuated an idealized picture of the village as an authentic, sacred space, increasingly associated with religious nationalism during the 1980s. The paper examines the key socio-political influences on the evolution of the pastoral motif, the work of state-sponsored official poets, and the impact of the village on the cultural doctrine of the Islamic Republic.