Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa.     

The Power and Limits of Cultural Myths in Portugal's Search for a Post-Imperial Role

The central role in Portuguese political culture of the identification of Portugal as a colonizing power legitimized a massive mobilization and violent response to the perceived existential threat of decolonization in the shape of prolonged wars in its main African colonies (1961–1974). If, however, this cultural myth of a Greater Portugal overseas was so powerful, how was decolonization eventually possible? The accumulated human and economic cost of facing three simultaneous, protracted anti-colonial insurgencies eroded this overseas creed and made Catholic and Marxist strands of anti-colonialism increasingly attractive to younger, more internationally connected, Portuguese elites. What also happened, however, this article will argue, was a refashioning of the powerful cultural myth of a special connection between Portugal and tropical Africa. A colonial myth was turned into a post-colonial myth legitimizing decolonization as a mutual and fraternal liberation from the same oppressive regime without a loss of strong ‘natural’ cultural bonds. More widely, the article aims to show that we cannot ignore the importance of cultural factors in international history. Our approach in this article is pluralist and this means that while arguing strongly for taking culture seriously and focusing on it, it does consider other, including more material, dimensions of power.     

The Levite's Concubine: New Light on a Dark Story

Previous commentators accept that an adulterous wife dared return to her father's house and a benign husband sought to retrieve her, or they stipulate a unique meaning for the phrase . By understanding in a sense attested elsewhere in the Bible, this essay both resolves the crux of implausibility and obviates the need for singular translation. A close literary reading also presents a new interpretation of the entire chapter, demonstrating that the theme of Judges 19 is neither hospitality nor the abasement of women but Israel's Sodom-like abnegation of commitment and compassion down to that last stronghold of security—the family unit. Contrary to other feminist readings, this feminist interpretation reveals the biblical author's empathy toward the concubine, his contempt for the guilty, and his imposition of punishment on the wrongdoers.     

Paleopathology of The Population of Krasnoyarsk,Central Siberia (Pokrovskiy and Voskresensko-Preobrazhenskiy Cemeteries of the 17th– Early 20th Centuries)

Published data on the paleopathology of Siberian populations are scarce. However, two samples of adult and non- adult skeletons taken from excavations at the Pokrovskiy (17th–18th centuries) and Voskresensko-Preobrazhenskiy (17th–early 20th century) cemeteries in Krasnoyarsk (123 and 204; 101 and 81, respectively) revealed cases of rickets, tuberculosis, and congenital syphilis in children, and vertebral tuberculosis and tertiary syphilis in adults. Trauma areas included ribs, hands, forearms, and tibiae. These two samples provide evidence on which to base an assessment of the health of the Krasnoyarsk population from 1628 to the early 1900s.     

Public Policy and the Idea of the Vietnamese State: The Cultural Political Economy of Domestic Water Supply

Using Rural Water Supply (RWS) policy practices as a case study, this article shows that the disjunction between implementation as formally conceived and informally practised is not a question of ineffective policy cycle dynamics, but rather an inherent feature of Vietnam’s Cultural Political Economy. Drawing on critical realist approaches to social and state theory, we argue that formal and informal RWS policy practices, as a set of two interconnected spheres, serve as key, separate but connected, mechanisms for reproducing the distribution of material resources (primarily through the informal sphere) and the hegemony of ideas (primarily through the formal sphere) in Vietnamese society. We conclude that the formal, administrative practices of RWS policy are primarily to be understood in their function of reproducing the idea of the state and state legitimacy. RWS administrative practices function to sustain the core social and political order in Vietnam as institutionalised in “the state”, rather than being primarily oriented to improving rural water supply. The findings raise questions for donor-supported programs that focus on formal administrative institutions and practices for improving the performance of the water sector.     

Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864

Abstract

We offer a new methodology for the construction of annual population stocks over the very long run. Our method does not require the assumption of a closed economy, and can be used in situations in which local annual gross flows are obtainable. Combining gross flows with intermittent census-type data, it is possible to arrive at local, regional and national population stock estimates at annual frequencies. We provide an application to early modern and nineteenth century Portugal, using a large sample of parish-level statistics up to the first modern census of 1864. All six major regions of the country are considered.     

ROAD INVESTMENTS,SPATIAL SPILLOVERS,AND DEFORESTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON*

ABSTRACT Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.