COMPARATIVE REGIONAL POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS: EX POST EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of ex post impact analysis of regional policies in the European Community. The analysis is both methodological and applied in nature. After a concise overview of existing impact assessment methods, a two-step approach by means of an exploratory frequency method and an explanatory rational expectations-based model is proposed in order to provide an empirical framework for cross-regional comparative evaluation of the performance of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The seope and applicability of the method is illustrated by means of a case study for Dutch regions.     

The Kapthurin Formation revisited

This contribution reports on the results obtained from the 1980–7 research in the Kapthurin Formation (Baringo, Kenya) which aimed at the refinement of the chronology, stratigraphy and environmental evidence in order to establish a framework for the interpretation of the prehistoric sites. In 1966 a Late Acheulean industry with prepared-core technique and blade component, dated betweenca 0.82/0.64 myr and 0.23 myr had been described in the area concerned. All the sites belong to the middle Kapthurin formation which is situated in the Bruhnes normal polarity chron and has a lower limit of 0.58 myr. The upper limit of 0.23 myr could not be confirmed. The fauna is consistent with the available dating evidence. The sites are situated in a flat savanna landscape which was built up by a braided river system under slightly more humid conditions than the present climate. On some of the sites artifacts were found in association with palaeosoils. Although the interpretation of such assemblages must consider the impact of natural turbation processes, the palaeosoils provide exceptional conditions for comparing sites from the same phase of landscape stabilization. The present archaeological evidence suggests a sequence of Late Acheulean and Post-Acheulean (Sangoan?, Middle Stone Age) assemblages rather than the presence of one single industry as described previously. The relation between these assemblages and the two mandibles ofHomo sp. (aff.erectus) BK67 and BK8518 (found in 1966 and 1982) emphasizes the need for more research in the area.     

Origin of palaeofluids in a normal fault setting in the Aegean region

The province of Burdur (SW Turkey) is seismically an active region. A structural, geochronological, petrographical, geochemical and fluid inclusion study of extension veins and fault‐related calcite precipitates has been undertaken to reconstruct the palaeofluid flow pattern in this normal fault setting in the Aegean region. A palaeostress analysis and U/Th dating of the precipitates reveals the neotectonic significance of the sampled calcites. Fluid inclusion microthermometry of calcites‐filling extension veins shows final melting temperatures (T_m ice) of 0°C. This indicates pure water, most likely of meteoric origin. The oxygen isotope values (?9.8‰ to ?6.5‰ VPDB) and the carbon isotopic composition (?10.4‰ to ?2.9‰ VPDB) of these calcites also show a near‐surface meteoric origin of the fluid responsible for precipitation. The microstructural characteristics of fault‐related calcites indicate that calcite precipitation was linked with fault activity. Final melting temperature of fault‐related calcites ranges between 0 and ?1.9°C. The oxygen isotope values show a broad range between ?15.0‰ and ?2.2‰ VPDB. Several of these calcites have a δ¹⁸O composition that is higher or lower than the oxygen isotopic composition of meteoric calcites in the area (i.e. between ?10‰ and ?6‰ VPDB). The δ¹³C composition largely falls within the range of the host limestones and reflects a rock‐buffered system. Microthermometry and stable isotopic study indicate a meteoric origin of the fluids with some degree of water–rock interaction or mixing with another fluid. Temperatures deduced from microthermometry and stable isotope analyses indicate precipitation temperatures around 50°C. These higher temperatures and the evidence for water–rock interaction indicate a flow path long enough to equilibrate with the host–rock limestone and to increase the temperature. The combined study of extension vein‐ and fault‐related calcite precipitates enables determining the origin of the fluids responsible for precipitation in a normal fault setting. Meteoric water infiltrated in the limestones to a depth of at least 1 km and underwent water–rock interaction or mixing with a residual fluid. This fluid was, moreover, tapped during fault activity. The extension veins, on the contrary, were passively filled with calcites precipitating from the downwards‐migrating meteoric water.     

Book reviews

Australian books

Lionel Wigmore: Struggle for the Snowy, Oxford University Press, Melbourne, 1968, pp. xx + 215, $8.75.

G. Singer, Margaret Austin, Fil Schofield: On How to Keep Your Gown Clean, Basic Books, Sydney, 1968, pp. 47, 95c.

M. Kahan and D. Aitkin: Drawing a Sample of the Australian Electorate, A.N.U., Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science, Occasional Papers no. 3, Canberra, 1968, pp. 46 + viii, n.p.

Malcolm Mackerras: The 1968 Federal Redistribution, A.N.U. Press, Canberra, 1969, pp. 125, $3.50.

Arthur Dean: A Multitude of Counsellors: A History of the Bar of Victoria, Cheshire, Melbourne, 1968, pp. 332 + xiii, $10.50.

Rupert Goodman: Secondary Education in Queensland, 1860–1960, Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1968, pp. 396 + xi, $10.50.

Ravinder Kumar: Western India in the Nineteenth Century: a Study in the Social History of Maharashtra, Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1968, pp. 347 + xii, $6.90.

Peter Boyce: Malaysia and Singapore in International Diplomacy: Documents and Commentaries, Sydney University Press, Sydney, 1968, pp. 268, $6.50.

Alastair Lamb: Asian Frontiers: Studies in a Continuing Problem, F. W. Cheshire for the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Melbourne, 1968, $3.50.

J. D. B. Miller (ed.): India, Japan, Australia: Partners in Asia?, A.N.U. Press, Canberra, pp. 212, $6.50.

Non‐Australian books

Daniel Wit: Thailand: Another Vietnam?, Charles Scribner's Sons, New York, 1968, pp. 125, $A3.70.

Radivon Richta (ed.): Civilisation at the Crossroads: Social and Human Implications of the Scientific and Technological Revolution, Australian Left Review Publications, Sydney, 1967, pp. 275, $3.00.

Ruth M. Beard: An Outline of Piaget's Developmental Psychology, Routledge & Kegan Paul Students’ Library of Education, London, 1969, pp. 128 + xvi, $1.55.

Hans G. Furth, Piaget and Knowledge: Theoretical Foundations, Prentice‐Hall, Engle‐wood Cliffs, 1969, pp. 270 + xvii, $9.30.

J. W. Davis and K. M. Dolbeare: Little Groups of Neighbours: The Selective Service System, Markham, Chicago, 1968, pp. 268, $U.S.6.50.

E. J. Feuchtwanger: Disraeli, Democracy and the Tory Party, O.U.P., Melbourne, 1968, pp. 268 + xiv, $6.30.

Arnold J. Heidenheimer and Frank C. Langdon: Business Associations and the Financing of Political Parties: A comparative study of the evolution of practices in Germany, Norway and Japan, The Hague, Martinus Nijhoff, 1968, pp. 247 + xxiii.     

Oxygen and strontium isotopes as provenance indicators of fish at archaeological sites: the case study of Sagalassos,SW Turkey

In this paper, we investigate the potential use of oxygen and strontium isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O_p and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) measured in archaeological fish enamel as provenance indicators. δ¹⁸O_p and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr were measured in a suite of archaeological carp remains recovered from the Anatolian townsite of Sagalassos dated to the Early Byzantine period (AD 450–650) and compared to that of modern fish, river and lake waters from the Anatolian region. We used sequential leaches in weak acetic acid to remove diagenetic Sr from fossil tooth enamel, monitoring the effectiveness of this approach by measuring the Sr/Ca ratios of the leachates via an isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry method (ID-TIMS). δ¹⁸O_p values mostly excluded a riverine origin. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of one fish overlapped with the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signatures of two lakes in the Anatolian region, and at least one lake (Gölcük) could be removed as a candidate owing to a very distinctive ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signature not found in any of the fish remains. Most of the tooth samples analyzed could not be assigned a precise geographical origin since the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios measured in enamel did not match that of any of the local lakes selected as potential origin. This result suggests that carp may have originated from lakes that have not yet been sampled, although this conclusion is not supported by other archaeological evidence. Alternatively, the lack of correspondence between lakes and fish Sr isotope ratios highlights several possible sources of uncertainties including spatial heterogeneity in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio within a lake, the contribution of dietary strontium to the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of fish tooth enamel, and post-mortem alteration of the tooth Sr isotope signal during fossilization. In spite of the high precision of the strontium isotope analyses and the wide range of variation in the surface waters of the Anatolian lakes and rivers, this method may remain limited to distinguishing between lakes situated in regions of bedrock of very distinct age and geology until these sources of uncertainty are more fully investigated.