COINTEGRATION BETWEEN U.S. WHEAT MARKETS

ABSTRACT. Average monthly price data from twelve hinterland markets and the Houston port price for wheat are studied in a cointegration framework using the Engle-Granger "two-step" procedure and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. Out-of-sample forecasts from an error correction model are compared to those from a vector autoregression fit to levels and a univariate autoregression fit to first differences. This comparison suggests that modeling these (cointegrated) data as a levels vector autoregression, rather than as an error-correction process, results in significantly higher error bias, but lower error variance, at long horizons.     

On the Origins and Dissemination of Domesticated Sorghum and Pearl Millet across Africa and into India: a View from the Butana Group of the Far Eastern Sahel

Four decades have passed since Harlan and Stemler (1976) proposed the eastern Sahelian zone as the most likely center of Sorghum bicolor domestication. Recently, new data on seed impressions on Butana Group pottery, from the fourth millennium BC in the southern Atbai region of the far eastern Sahelian Belt in Africa, show evidence for cultivation activities of sorghum displaying some domestication traits. Pennisetum glaucum may have been undergoing domestication shortly thereafter in the western Sahel, as finds of fully domesticated pearl millet are present in southeastern Mali by the second half of the third millennium BC, and present in eastern Sudan by the early second millennium BC. The dispersal of the latter to India took less than 1000 years according to present data. Here, we review the middle Holocene Sudanese archaeological data for the first time, to situate the origins and spread of these two native summer rainfall cereals in what is proposed to be their eastern Sahelian Sudan gateway to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean trade.     

Joseph’s Dialogue with the Egyptians in Genesis 47,13-26: From Grammar to Social Dynamics

The relationship between Joseph and the Egyptians in Gen 47,13-26 is a disputed topic. Halliday’s Functional grammar offers a system that quantifies the dynamics of social interaction by tracking speech roles, topic changes, and modulation. It is the intention of this study to demonstrate that clarity can be brought to the dispute over the nature of the interaction between Joseph and the Egyptians in Gen 47,13-26 by applying the analytical tools of the Interpersonal Metafunction from the Systemic Functional Linguistics of M.A.K. Halliday. Specifically, the contours of the gradual capitulation of the Egyptians to Joseph’s supremacy can be substantiated from a number of discrete linguistic variables. (10,0008 words)     

Decentring international and institutional famine relief in late nineteenth-century China: in search of the local

This article uses rural gazetteer biographies to examine village and household-level famine relief during the great North China Famine of 1876–9 to deepen our understanding of past relief methods and dynamics at the most local level. Despite the appearance of major works recently on famine in modern China, particularly on the Great Leap Forward, knowledge of Chinese famine relief remains thin and scattered considering the enormity of the subject. Nineteenth-century China saw intensifying international relief activity as well as the emergence of a vibrant charity-relief sector based in China's major cities, leading to the rise of prominent relief institutions in the twentieth century, such as the Chinese Red Cross. But the increasingly intense disasters of China's modern period also saw a surprising persistence of local humanitarian traditions still barely covered by historians.     

Local diversity in settlement,demography and subsistence across the southern Indian Neolithic-Iron Age transition: site growth and abandonment at Sanganakallu-Kupgal

The Southern Indian Neolithic-Iron Age transition demonstrates considerable regional variability in settlement location, density, and size. While researchers have shown that the region around the Tungabhadra and Krishna River basins displays significant subsistence and demographic continuity, and intensification, from the Neolithic into the Iron Age ca. 1200 cal. BC, archaeological and chronometric records in the Sanganakallu region point to hilltop village expansion during the Late Neolithic and ‘Megalithic’ transition period (ca. 1400–1200 cal. BC) prior to apparent abandonment ca. 1200 cal. BC, with little evidence for the introduction of iron technology into the region. We suggest that the difference in these settlement histories is a result of differential access to stable water resources during a period of weakening and fluctuating monsoon across a generally arid landscape. Here, we describe well-dated, integrated chronological, archaeobotanical, archaeozoological and archaeological survey datasets from the Sanganakallu-Kupgal site complex that together demonstrate an intensification of settlement, subsistence and craft production on local hilltops prior to almost complete abandonment ca. 1200 cal. BC. Although the southern Deccan region as a whole may have witnessed demographic increase, as well as subsistence and cultural continuity, at this time, this broader pattern of continuity and resilience is punctuated by local examples of abandonment and mobility driven by an increasing practical and political concern with water.     

Religion,politics and socio-cultural change in twentieth-century ireland

The Catholic Church assumed vast power and influence in early twentieth century Ireland based on political, social and religious developments in the course of the nineteenth century. The first Irish governments under Costello and de Valera were deferential in relation to the power and place of the Catholic Church in Irish life. The 1950s represented the final phase of the dominance of the Catholic Church. Since then, a wide variety of influences from emigration to the mass media to issues related to family planning have undermined the social framework of Church dominance in Irish life. By highlighting the ideas and arguments of priests and prelates, this article summarizes the remarkable changes that have come to Ireland undermining the status and privilege of the Church in Irish politics and society.     

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope variations in tooth dentine serial sections from Wharram Percy

Here we report δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N measurements of serial sections of human deciduous and permanent tooth dentine from archaeological samples taken from the medieval village site of Wharram Percy, Yorkshire, UK. We found a pattern of enrichment, for both δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N, where the tooth crown was greater than the cervical part of the root, which in turn was greater than the apical portion of the root and the associated rib collagen values. This pattern reflects a decrease in the consumption of isotopically enriched breast milk and the introduction of less enriched weaning foods in the diet. The (mean±SD) difference between the deciduous second molar crowns and corresponding rib samples from the same individuals after 2 years of age was 1.2±0.4‰ for δ¹³C and 3.2±0.8‰ for δ¹⁵N. The δ¹⁵N values are as predicted, but as there were no C₄plants at Wharram Percy, this 1.2‰ enrichment in δ¹³C represents clear evidence of a carbon trophic level effect in collagen from breastfeeding infants. Carbon and nitrogen results also show that the infant diet among those who died in infancy did not differ from those who survived into childhood. This study demonstrates the promise of using dentine serial sections to study the temporal relationships of breastfeeding, weaning, and dietary patterns of single individuals.