The Crisis of the 1980s in Sub-Saharan Africa,Latin America and the Caribbean: Economic Impact,Social Change and Political Implications

The purpose of this paper, prepared as a background document for the UNRISD/University of the West Indies conference on Economic Crisis and Third World Countries, is to provide a framework for consideration of societal changes accompanying economic recession and restructuring in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade. It is the central argument of the paper that adaptation to crisis should not be considered a temporary phenomenon, interrupting a single, lineal process of modernization which can be expected to resume its course once current difficulties are overcome. On the contrary, both crisis and adjustment have profoundly modified the structure of incentives within which individuals and households must attempt to ensure their livelihood, encouraging new patterns of behaviour with long-term implications for the nature of the economy, society and political practice. After a brief review of the macroeconomic background of crisis in each region, this central hypothesis is explored through a very preliminary analysis of the changing life chances of various kinds of upper, middle and lower income groups — emphasizing not only the costs but also the opportunities which have been associated with economic restructuring. Some individual and collective reactions to change are then considered, before raising a series of questions concerning the implications of crisis and adjustment for the state and civil society.     

LEADERS,FOLLOWERS, AND ASYMMETRIC LOCAL TAX POLICY DIFFUSION

Complementing recent theoretical models of tax competition with endogenous leadership, we empirically model local policy diffusion as a dynamic asymmetric process. Using a setting where local option sales taxes rapidly transitioned from nonexistence to ubiquity, we construct a policy leadership index to classify jurisdictions as leaders or followers. Using models that control for vertical tax competition effects, we show how asymmetric leader–follower dynamics characterize horizontal tax competition over the three decades that follow. A placebo test further supports our main conclusions. This methodological approach could be adapted to other settings where policies exhibit both extensive and intensive margins.     

Determination of the parameters of the Guildhall amphitheatre ellipse in London

The paper presents an algorithm for computing the parameters of an ellipse that fits, in a least-squares sense, the surveyed remains of Roman amphitheatre arena walls. The algorithm is validated using ideal data and the near complete remains of the amphitheatre at Sarmizegetusa in Romania. The technique is then applied to the partial remains of the amphitheatre at the Guildhall in the City of London, in the UK, which cover only the Eastern end of the monument. The underlying mathematical model and method of solution is presented. The method was developed with a view to determining firstly whether or not an ellipse is a feasible model for the actual constructed curve geometry, and secondly, where the Western end of the Guildhall amphitheatre might be located. One single ellipse was found to fit the Guildhall remains, with measurement residuals at the level of 30 mm in the eastings and 26 mm in the northings. The ellipse had a semi-major axis of 28.345 m and a semi-minor axis of 22.775 m. The issues of alternative geometries and the practicalities of their use in construction are considered.