1989: THE CHRONOPOLITICS OF REVOLUTION

A failed effort at “reform from above” or a dramatic reassertion of “people power”? Almost thirty-five years on, studies of the Revolutions of 1989 continue to be framed by these two polarities. However, this historiographical focus has meant that scholars have often overlooked the actual content and character of protest itself. This article argues that one way of reinjecting agency and ideas back into our historical understanding of 1989 is through examining the chronopolitics of revolution: that is to say, by addressing how the control and interpretation of time became a political battlefield, a site of contention and negotiation, between Communist regimes, on the one hand, and political activists and society, on the other. Investigating events in the German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia, the article contains two central claims: first, that an interrogation of the concept of “chronopolitics” can provide a new angle by which to grasp the revolutionary character of “1989” and the democratic transformations that resulted and, second, by way of inversion, that a study of the temporal experiences across 1989 and the early 1990s can in turn shed light on the analytical value of “chronopolitics” more generally.     

What Were We Thinking?

This article outlines the context in geography and statistics in the mid 1960s, at the height of geography's so-called "quantitative revolution," that led us into a long-term collaboration about spatial statistics, which has continued in surges and lulls for some 40 years. We focus upon problems in spatial autocorrelation, including the measurement of autocorrelation, distribution theory, and variable geographical lattices. This narrative may not describe how it was, but it does describe how we remember the events of the time.     

Reconstruction of diffusion at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland.

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

Epidemiological spaces: the use of multidimensional scaling to identify cholera diffusion processes in wake of the Philippines insurrection, 1899–1902

Between 1902 and 1904 an epidemic of cholera, fuelled initially by the operations of the Philippine-American War (1899–1902), swept through the Philippine Islands in two waves. In earlier papers, the authors showed that spatially contagious spread dominated the waves at the geographical levels of province, island and nation (Smallman-Raynor and Cliff 1998a, b). To explore the visualization and analysis of epidemic transmission in an alternative metric, the present paper uses multidimensional scaling (MDS) to translate the spread corridors followed by the waves from conventional geographical space into non-Euclidean cholera spaces. The re-mapping confirms the importance of contagious diffusion in the spread of the epidemic, but also picks out the moments in time in which spread driven through the population hierarchy switched in. In addition, the analysis illustrates the utility of constructing non-Euclidean spaces to identify disease diffusion processes.     

Reconstruction of diffusion processes at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

The spatial anatomy of an epidemic: influenza in London and the county boroughs of England and Wales, 1918–1919

From uncertain origins in the spring of 1918, an apparently new variant of influenza A virus spread around the world as three distinct diffusion waves, infecting half a billion and probably killing around 40 million people. This paper examines the spatial structure of influenza transmission during the ten–month course of the epidemic in England and Wales, June 1918–April 1919, using the weekly counts of influenza deaths in London and the county boroughs as collated by the General Register Office, London. In addition, a particular case study of the borough of Cambridge is presented. From mid–1916, Cambridge contained, as well as its undergraduate population, a large naval contingent billeted in both the colleges and the town. It therefore affords the opportunity of studying the effect of the epidemic in contiguous groups with widely differing demographic characteristics. Through the application of a range of statistical methods (average lags, correlations and regressions), it is shown that the three waves that comprised the pandemic had fundamentally different spatial and temporal characteristics. The first, moving through a population that was a virgin soil to the new virus strain, was explosive in its north to south progress across the country. The second wave was somewhat slower in its rate of diffusion and displayed a south to north drift. Finally, the third wave reverted more closely to the form of the first. The spread of all three waves, however, was underpinned by a clearly defined process of spatial contagion. The Cambridge study showed the special characteristics of this pandemic in terms of the ages of those attacked: high rates were experienced across the age spectrum, a feature also seen internationally.