未雨绸缪:张之洞备荒举措及其成效探研

晚清时期,自然灾害频繁发生,光绪年间尤为严重。身处如此时代,张之洞对于备荒问题始终极为重视,尤其是执掌一方后,每到一地均针对当地特点采取了有效的应对之策,最要者主要有建仓积谷、以备饥荒,开垦荒地、均减差徭,修堤防洪、兴利除害,禁种罂粟、推广桑棉,改善交通、发展通讯等。立足于中国历史发展长河,张之洞的备荒举措,既有承自传统的,又有与时俱进的。可以说,既重视前人,又在前人基础上有所发展。这种理论结合实践所提出的备荒主张极具价值,其实践效果也颇为明显,值得肯定。但张之洞备荒举措的实施效果也并非尽如人意,追根溯源,既与具体办事人员办事不力、主政官员更迭及政策未能及时跟进紧密相关,又与传统社会中地方百姓对新事物、新方法的抵触行为密切相连。     

A NEW SPATIAL MULTIPLE DISCRETE‐CONTINUOUS MODELING APPROACH TO LAND USE CHANGE ANALYSIS

This paper formulates a multiple discrete‐continuous probit (MDCP) land use model within a spatially explicit economic structural framework for land use change decisions. The spatial MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensity of urban development patterns over large geographic areas, while also explicitly acknowledging geographic proximity‐based spatial dependencies in these patterns. At a methodological level, the paper focuses on specifying and estimating a spatial MDCP model that allows the dependent variable to exist in multiple discrete states with an intensity associated with each discrete state. The formulation also accommodates spatial dependencies, as well as spatial heterogeneity and heteroskedasticity, in the dependent variable, and should be applicable in a wide variety of fields where social and spatial dependencies between decision agents (or observation units) lead to spillover effects in multiple discrete‐continuous choices (or states). A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) approach to recover parameters from a cross‐sectional spatial MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does well in recovering parameters. An empirical demonstration of the approach is undertaken using the city of Austin parcel level land use data.     

国民革命后期国民党党员志愿兵考论

党员志愿兵是国民党组建党人武装的阶段表现形式.国民党中央对党员志愿兵训练、干部委任的"中共控制"现象颇为警惕,担心中共以征募党员志愿兵的名义组织红军,这是党员志愿兵停止招募的主要原因.武装党人与武力党化的错位循环表明国民党始终没能找到驾驭武力而不为其反噬的有效办法.政党对军队的管辖、裁制主要通过军队中政党组织的制度化建立及对军人党员有较强约束力的常态化支部生活来实现,不取决于军人党员数量.     

高寒地区土地资源利用评价的GIS支持研究——以青海海北藏族自治州为例

土地资源是人类生存的基本资料和劳动对象,是人地关系系统中一个重要的物质信息载体,是评价人类生境的一个重要对象。土地利用是人类在现阶段生产力水平下,对区域土地资源的开发程度和利用情况。土地资源的现状评价,是反映人地关系协调程度的一个重要手段。本文采用目前广泛使用的GIS先进技术手段,对青海省海北藏族自治州土地资源的利用现状进行了评价。表明了GIS技术对该区域土地利用评价起到了缩小工作量,提高精确度的作用。并且从土地利用角度对海北州人地关系现状进行了描述。     

西周的"德"与孔子的"仁"——中国传统文化的泛血缘特征初探

周人克殷践奄后,创建了以周天子为天下大宗的,包括同姓和异姓诸侯在内的宗法等级秩序.这种宗法等级秩序在政治制度方面表现为宗盟政体的构建,在意识形态上则表现为泛血缘文化或曰拟血缘文化的创造,即周人以姬姓周天子的血缘为核心的对异姓贵族血缘认同的文化.这种泛血缘文化集中体现在周人所创造的"德"这一宗法伦理价值观念上.西周的"德"与孔子的"仁"二者之间具有沿革承传关系及共同的泛血缘文化特征.     

CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF STUCCOS FROM A MEXICAN COLONIAL BUILDING: EL MUSEO DEL CALENDARIO OF QUERETARO*

Restoration requires the use of appropriate characterization methods and suitable new material preparation processes permit the reproduction of the original material to be as similar as possible in order to be an appropriate application method. The combination of these factors will facilitate a good restoration process. Different stuccos were taken from El Museo del Calendario, a building located in Querétaro, Mexico which was built in the 16th century. All the stucco samples were studied using the characterization process which is proposed in this article. The characterization method consisted of the use of analytical techniques, such as X‐ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared and scanning electron microscopy. This characterization method made reproduction of the original material possible. The new material combined with new application techniques developed in situ will result in a high‐quality restoration process.