Latent trajectory models for space‐time analysis: An application in deciphering spatial panel data

This article introduces latent trajectory models (LTMs), an approach often employed in social sciences to handle longitudinal data, to the arena of GIScience, particularly space‐time analysis. Using the space‐time data collected at county level for the whole United States through webpage search on the keyword “climate change,” we show that LTMs, when combined with eigenvector filtering of spatial dependence in data, are very useful in unveiling temporal trends hidden in such data: the webpage‐data derived popularity measure for climate change has been increasing from December 2011 to March 2013, but the increase rate has been slowing down. In addition, LTMs help reveal potential mechanisms behind observed space‐time trajectories through linking the webpage‐data derived popularity measure about climate change to a set of socio‐demographic covariates. Our analysis shows that controlling for population density, greater drought exposure, higher percent of people who are 16 years old or above, and higher household income are positively predictive of the trajectory slopes. Higher percentages of Republicans and number of hot days in summer are negatively related to the trajectory slopes. Implications of these results are examined, concluding with consideration of the potential utility of LTMs in space‐time analysis and more generally in GIScience.     

The fateful Indian recognition of West Germany, 1949

India’s recognition of West, but not East, Germany was the foundation of an inconsistent policy on Germany from India and many other non-aligned countries. It was the outcome of a lack of professionalism, indecisiveness, the pragmatic considerations of a junior Indian diplomat in Berlin, and the laconic approval of the anti-communist secretary-general of the Ministry of External Affairs, Girja Shankar Bajpai. Neither Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru nor his advisor V.K. Krishnan Menon were involved at all. Officials around Foreign Secretary K.P.S. Menon held that the GDR should also be recognised in due course, but did not exercise sufficient influence. India would stand by its decision for 23 years and thereby set an example for other non-aligned countries.     

Degrees of Engagement: Using Cultural Worldviews to Explain Variations in Public Preferences for Engagement in the Policy Process

Scholars have been studying the concept of public engagement and its role in the policy process for some time. Scholars have argued that understanding the interests and motivations of the public and engaging them in the decision‐making process can lead to better policy designs and, ultimately, better policy outcomes. However, studies of public engagement often assume that people have a desire to get involved in the policy process. This paper tests this key assumption using the case of nuclear facility siting in the United States to ask: what factors influence an individual's stated willingness to want to engage in the policy process? Using data from a national web survey fielded in 2013, we ask the public if and to what extent they would likely engage in the siting process if given the opportunity. Findings indicate that the likelihood of engagement varies rather substantially across individuals. We find that an individual's cultural belief system and existing level of political activity account for some of this variation. These findings suggest that public engagement programs may vary across groups and communities. In other words, the prospects of engagement are likely to appeal to some members of the population and not others.     

Local Communities, National Governments and Forensic and Archaeological Investigations of Human Rights Violations

Forensic and archaeological investigations of human rights violations are socially and politically sensitive. They are influenced by the principle of psychic unity and by ideas of cultural relativism. Investigations of clandestine graves are carried out by interdisciplinary teams working with local communities, national institutions and international agencies. Scholars focus on the detection of graves and the recovery of victims of crimes. Understanding how and when a grave was created takes a secondary position in these scenarios. The present study draws from these insights and argues that reconceptualising forensic and archaeological investigations in terms of concerns of local communities is a way to understand their changing relations with national governments and international organizations.     

The Strategic Choice of Location and Transport Mode in a Successive Monopoly Model

This work emphasizes the incentives for vertical integration in a spatial model. A downstream monopoly will both strategically increase its transport costs and locate inefficiently relative to its customers. This forces the upstream monopolist to lower its input price rather than permit sales to decline. The excess costs and the inefficient location lower total profit in the vertical stream generating an incentive for vertical integration.     

Successive Earthquake-Tsunami Analysis to Develop Collapse Fragilities

Over the last half century, scientists and engineers have developed methods to better understand and mitigate the damage caused by tsunamis. According to U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P646, buildings in many regions, including the U.S. Pacific Northwest, will experience substantial ground shaking from an offshore earthquake that precedes a tsunami and then experience the tsunami forces themselves. Thus, both hazards should be considered in computing the damage and collapse risk to buildings. This article summarizes a basic approach to numerically consider the successive seismic and tsunami risk to buildings in near-field tsunami regions such as the U.S. Pacific Northwest.     

Reviews

AUSTRALIA IN WORLD AFFAIRS 1961–1965. Gordon Greenwood and Norman Harper (eds.). Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire for the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1968. Pp. vii + 503. $8.75.

VIETNAM. AN AUSTRALIAN ANALYSIS. Alan Watt. Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire for the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1968. Pp. 156 + appendix, bibliography and index. $3.50.

LAOS—BUFFER STATE OR BATTLEGROUND. Hugh Toye. London, Oxford University Press, 1968. Pp. xvii + 245. $6.30.

PEACEKEEPING: INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGE AND CANADIAN RESPONSE. Alastair Taylor, David Cox and J. L. Granatstein. Toronto, Canadian Institute of International Affairs, 1968. Pp. 211. $4.50.

INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN CAMBODIA, LAOS AND VIETNAM, 1947–64. D. R. Desai. Berkeley, California University Press, 1968. Pp. 336. $10.00.

ASIAN FRONTIERS. STUDIES *IN A CONTINUING PROBLEM. Alastair Lamb. Melbourne, F. W. Cheshire, 1968, for the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Pp. x + 246. $3.50.

THE INDIANIZED STATES OF SOUTHEAST ASIA. G. Coedès. Translated by Susan Brown Cowing. Edited by Walter F. Vella. Canberra, Australian National University Press, 1968. Pp. xxi + 403. $12.00.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN MODERN JAPAN. Robert E. Ward (ed.). Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1968. Pp. xii + 637. $12.50.

MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE IN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY. DOCUMENTS AND COMMENTARIES. Peter Boyce. Sydney, Sydney University Press, 1968. Pp. xii + 268. $6.50.

NATO: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS. Harold von Riekhoff. Toronto, Canadian Institute of International Affairs, 1967. Pp. x + 170. $3.50.

SOUTH AFRICA. A STUDY IN CONFLICT. Pierre L. van den Berghe. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1967. Pp. xii + 371. (U.S.)$2.45.

STATE SUCCESSION IN MUNICIPAL LAW AND INTERNATIONAL LAW. D. P. O'Connell. London, Cambridge University Press, 1967. Vol. I, pp. i‐cxi, 1–592, £stg.7.7.0. Vol. II, pp. i‐cxi, 1–430, £stg.6.0.0.     

Legal heritage and urban slums

This paper studies the effect of legal origins (common law vs. civil law) on contemporary slum formation in developing countries. First, we provide a cross-country correlation analysis. Second, we provide a regression discontinuity analysis using household data from Cameroon. The results suggest that a common law heritage is associated with a lower probability of slum conditions. The legal philosophies transplanted through colonization appear to be associated with the pattern of contemporary urban housing stocks in developing countries.