A DYNAMIC INTRSECTORAL,MODEL OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. The dynamic relationship between sectoral value added and regional economic growth is analyzed using a stochastic intersectoral model estimated by ordinary least squares and linear systems techniques. A state-space portion of the model identifies the time element of sedoral value added. Dynamic multipliers, tracing the temporal path of regional growth, are calculated for the state of Georgia over the period 1963–1986. This application shows that the impacts of sectoral shocks can follow cyclical as well as monotonic patterns and that the direction and magnitude of the impact may change over time.     

Madness and colonisation: The embodiment of power in Pangia

The article considers two examples of ‘madness’ which occurred during the colonial era in Pangia district, Southern Highlands Province, PNG. The first, immediately prior to pacification, concerned outbreaks of madness among young Wiru men which were similar to the ‘wildman’ behaviour described in the Highlands ethnography. The second style of madness was associated with the so-called ‘hysteria’ accompanying revival activity by Christian missions. The two styles are compared using a Foucauldian perspective, primarily for the ways in which colonial technologies of power were inscribed on the bodies of Pangia people. The article presents an anatomy of colonial power, and suggests an ethnohistory of the body is possible. It examines the ways in which this power was created through discourses and practices involving concepts of the ‘primitive’ and ‘heathen,’ resulting in a transformation of the Wiru subject.     

NETWORK LOADING VERSUS EQUILIBRIUM ESTIMATION OF THE STOCHASTIC ROUTE CHOICE MODEL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND LEAST SQUARES REVISITED*

Daganzo (1977, 1979), Daganzo and Sheffi (1977), Sheffi (1985), and Sheffi and Daganzo (1980) have used one assumption about traveler behavior in developing estimation techniques for the stochastic route-choice problem and another assumption in predicting flows on networks by using the same model. In estimation, they calculate the congested travel costs of the network links from observed flows on the network, and the network is loaded based on these costs. In prediction, they follow their stochastic user-equilibrium assumption by which travelers evaluate costs using the mean of the observed flows (or equilibrium flows). The travel-cost coefficient obtained from the loading method systematically overestimates the true travel-cost coefficient from which the observed flow data (which must be used in loading) is generated. The estimates of the same coefficient, obtained in this paper, by constraining the estimation results to conform to the equilibrium conditions are unbiased, and only marginally less efficient (have larger standard deviations). The average percentage error and inefficiency of the link flow predictions based on the loading method increases as the level of congestion on the network rises. In contrast, the average percentage error of link flow predictions based on the equilibrium estimation method declines and their efficiency remains very high as the level of congestion on the network rises.     

Cities and Privatization

Cities across America look for management strategies useful for accomplishing their responsibilities and programs. While some cities include privatization strategies in their management portfolios, others do not, and the underlying reasons are not readily apparent. This study seeks to gain some insight into this disparity through several questions: Why do some cities use more privatization than others? Are privatization levels higher in fiscally healthy or fiscally stressed cities? Where are the cities that use privatization located? This study attributes municipal privatization levels in medium-sized cities, in part, to degree of wealth, fiscal stress, and location. The findings suggest that privatization levels are higher in wealthy, fiscally healthy, suburban cities.     

New Technologies,Employment and Labour Markets in Developing Countries

This article is concerned with the impact of new technologies - especially, but not entirely, those that are related to microelectronics - on employment and labour markets in developing countries. Taking the form of a literature survey it looks at those impacts that have already occurred as well as effects that seem likely to occur in the future. Both sets of issues are addressed within an analytical framework that views the impact of technical change as the end result of a process which begins with the generation and proceeds via the diffusion of new technologies. The need for so broad an approach is shown to stem from the multiplicity of ways in which the generation and diffusion of new technologies influence each other and condition the ultimate impact of these technologies on employment and labour markets. Because many such mechanisms have not yet received much attention in the literature, there appears to be substantial scope for further research.