The Crisis of the 1980s in Sub-Saharan Africa,Latin America and the Caribbean: Economic Impact,Social Change and Political Implications

The purpose of this paper, prepared as a background document for the UNRISD/University of the West Indies conference on Economic Crisis and Third World Countries, is to provide a framework for consideration of societal changes accompanying economic recession and restructuring in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade. It is the central argument of the paper that adaptation to crisis should not be considered a temporary phenomenon, interrupting a single, lineal process of modernization which can be expected to resume its course once current difficulties are overcome. On the contrary, both crisis and adjustment have profoundly modified the structure of incentives within which individuals and households must attempt to ensure their livelihood, encouraging new patterns of behaviour with long-term implications for the nature of the economy, society and political practice. After a brief review of the macroeconomic background of crisis in each region, this central hypothesis is explored through a very preliminary analysis of the changing life chances of various kinds of upper, middle and lower income groups — emphasizing not only the costs but also the opportunities which have been associated with economic restructuring. Some individual and collective reactions to change are then considered, before raising a series of questions concerning the implications of crisis and adjustment for the state and civil society.     

Regional Out-Migration Rates and Migration Histories: A Longitudinal Analysis

A longitudinal approach to migration behavior makes it possible to identify a sufficient condition for positive associations between rates of in-migration and rates of out-migration in the same regions. The longitudinal approach centers on the intervals of time that individuals spend in a region, and these intervals can be analyzed in terms of probability distributions or the equivalent hazard functions or survivor functions. Differences in the distributions of these intervals between subpopulations whose residence in a region begins with in-migration and subpopulations whose residence begins with other events are sufficient for temporal variations in rates of in-migration to produce variations in out-migration rates in subsequent periods of time. Tests for such differences are performed using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.     

Governance,the State and the Politics of Development

Current western aid and development policy aims to promote ‘good governance’ in the third world. Few would deny that competent, open and fair administration is both a worthy aim and a self-evident requirement of development. However, the current orthodoxy clearly illustrates the technicist fallacy, which is implicit in the following quotation from Pope, that the effective administration or ‘management’ of development is essentially a technical or practical matter. This article argues that development is fundamentally a political matter and that it is illusory to conceive of good governance as independent of the forms of politics and type of state which alone can generate, sustain and protect it. For Forms of Government, let fools contest; Whate'er is best administered, is best. (Pope, 1734: Bk 3, lines 303-4).     

Modeling Interaction in a System of Markets

This paper develops a nested family of market interaction models for the general case of spatial or aspatial goods. Market structure effects are identified in the form of intraregional and extraregional competition. The competing destinations and competing central place models are shown to be special cases of the general modeling framework. An empirical example, using survey data collected from Chicago-area Management and Public Relations (SIC 874) firms, illustrates how the family of models may be used to identify market structure.     

Shark attack!: A cultural approach

Many Australians would concur with the view of the novelist Tim Winton that we have an ‘almost supernatural fear and hatred’ of sharks. Especially in the wake of fatal attacks by great white sharks (on average once or twice per year), the extent of fascination and fear within the population at large is undeniable. This paper rejects the frequently encountered explanation that this is because we have an ‘instinctual’, ‘hard wired’ and ‘primal fear’ of wild animals that can kill people. Its focus instead is on the contemporary cultural interpretations of great whites and their behaviour which come to the fore when fatal attacks take place.