Refining Broad-Scale Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Archaeological Resources,Lough Foyle,Northern Ireland

Increasing evidence indicates that ongoing and future climate change impacts, such as enhanced coastal erosion driven by intensified storms and sea-level rise, will be destructive or problematic for coastal archaeological heritage. Approaches to this problem range from broad-scale GIS-based vulnerability assessments to site-scale monitoring and survey. In all cases, the approach chosen should be based on the best-available data on the local historic environment and pattern of coastal change. Therefore, this paper will demonstrate how such data can be successively acquired and enhanced using an integrated approach that builds on and refines a previously conducted broad-scale vulnerability assessment. This approach was adopted in the study region (Northern Ireland) owing to a lack of coherent and up-to-date information on shoreline change. This approach incorporated the GIS-based Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) to quantify and analyze local shoreline change. DSAS is a software extension for ESRI ArcGIS which allows calculation of rate-of-change statistics using past shorelines identified from georeferenced historic maps and vertical aerial imagery. Additionally, a field survey was conducted to assess the condition of recorded sites, and identify unrecorded ones. Results revealed a more complex pattern of shoreline change in the study area (Magilligan Foreland, Lough Foyle) than previously anticipated, with zones of significant erosion interspersed with areas of stability or advance. Fifty-one new sites ranging from the prehistoric period to the Second World War were also identified. The new information was used to develop a priority classification based on site significance, condition and risk level which improved significantly on the uniform classification of the original broad-scale assessment.     

Normative,agitated, and rebellious femininities among East and Central African refugee women

This article discusses femininities among East and Central African refugee women self-settled in Nairobi, Kenya. It argues that while normative approaches to refugee studies depict a homogeneous refugee femininity inherently synonymous with vulnerability and ‘victimhood,’ femininity among refugee women in Nairobi is heterogeneous, fluid, and complex. It is premised on individual refugee women's marital statuses in relation to economic situation. The article argues that femininity is a constraint in some instances and a resource in others, such that what exists among the refugee women is not a single femininity but a continuum of femininities. Specifically, the article conceptualizes femininity under three categories, namely: normative, agitated, and rebellious femininities.     

Børnemagt/children’s power in the Freetown of Christiania: citizenship,agency and vulnerability

This article contributes to the field of research on children and citizenship, by analysing retrospective narratives about experiences of Børnemagt (Children’s Power) in the Freetown of Christiania, Denmark, in the 1970s and 1980s, focusing on strategies for agency and rights, as well as on vulnerabilities. Power relations regarding age and space are used as analytical tools. Runaway children from harsh backgrounds found a refuge in Christiania and tried to take charge of their own lives after rejecting the care they had received from adults and societal institutions earlier in life. The freedom experienced in Christiania supported the young people in their elaboration of citizenship, at the same time as the attitude of ‘leaving the children to their own devices’ excluded them from a citizenship based on interdependency and interrelationality. Vulnerability, it is argued, is a constitutive element of citizenship that needs to be further elaborated within this field of research.     

Shoreline Change and Coastal Vulnerability Characterization with Landsat Imagery: A Case Study in the Outer Hebrides,Scotland

Abstract

Observation of cause–effect patterns of change in coastal environments provides insights into vulnerable areas and supports prediction and adaptation to flooding and erosion. Historic and periodic (6–8 year intervals) imagery from the Landsat archive is used to investigate transformations in the Atlantic coast of two Scottish islands over the period 1989–2011. Supervised classification of spectrally normalized images followed by change detection and spatial analysis reveals the patterns of change and the location of the most dynamic coastal areas. Quantitative measures of recent shifts and movement rates of relevant coastal lines, such as the lower limit of land-based vegetation, are assessed with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System. While very low rates are indicated for horizontal changes in the position of the lower limit of land-based vegetation (0.3?m?y^?1), specific areas have been subjected to high rates of coastal progradation as well as erosion (e.g. 2.5?m?y^?1 at Stilligarry). Information derived from satellite data supports the characterization of geomorphologically dynamic coasts at regional scales. With a rich and open access archive of imagery, a commitment to continuity, and compatibility with the Earth observation missions of other space programs, the Landsat mission offers useful and otherwise unavailable data for monitoring of coastal areas.     

A Predictive Map of Compression- Sensitivity of the Dutch Archaeological Soil Archive

Abstract

Weak soils like unconsolidated clay and peat may deform and compress considerably by loading, for example, by sand bodies for roads and railways. Archaeological sites within such easily compressible soil layers may therefore be heavily affected by different kinds of construction works. The vulnerability of archaeological sites to compression is largely dependent on soil properties like lithology, grain-size, and previous loading history. This may therefore differ considerably. Predicting the compression sensitivity is of great value for planners, since they can estimate in which areas in situ protection of archaeological sites may be feasible and where it would require (costly) technical measures or plan adaptations.

As part of the Cultural Heritage Agency’s research programme on construction and archaeology, we prepared predictive maps of the compression sensitivity of the subsurface sediments in the Netherlands for 1 m depth intervals from 0 to 20 m depth.

The maps were constructed using a full 3-D model of the subsurface of the Netherlands.

In combination with the Indicative Map of Archaeological Values (IKAW) that is already available, these maps can be used to better estimate the technical measures needed and costs involved for in situ protection of archaeological sites in the planning phase of construction projects.     

STATISTICAL SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING REINFORCED CONCRETE BUILDINGS IN TURKEY ON A REGIONAL SCALE

A statistical procedure, called discriminant analysis, is used to develop a model for the preliminary assessment of the seismic vulnerability of low- to medium-rise (2-7 storey) reinforced concrete buildings. The earthquake damage data compiled in Düzce province after the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake formed the damage database. Number of storeys, minimum normalised lateral stiffness index, minimum normalised lateral strength index, normalised redundancy score, soft storey index and overhang ratio are selected as the basic damage inducing variables. Two discriminant functions are derived in terms of these variables considering immediate occupancy and life safety performance levels. In the proposed preliminary seismic vulnerability assessment model, the discri-minant scores obtained from these two discriminant functions are combined in an optimal way and axe used to classify existing buildings as “safe”, “unsafe” and “requires further evaluation”. The optimality criterion imposed into the model is the minimisation of the misclassification rate of damage states causing collapse. The validity of the proposed model is checked by using the seismic damage data associated with recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey. The consistency between the observed damage distribution and the predictions of the proposed model supports the effectiveness of the proposed model.     

Transboundary river governance and climate vulnerability: Community perspectives in Nepal’s Koshi river basin

Frequent floods in the Koshi River have left the Nepalese vulnerable to erosion and recurring inundation—especially those living on the floodplains. The situation is worsening because water flow in the river is highly uncertain, affected by rainfall in the mountains and by climate change, and influenced by the Koshi barrage, which is governed by the Koshi River Agreement, a bilateral river agreement with India. This study addresses how Koshi River governance contributes to the vulnerability of riverine communities in Nepal by drawing upon ideas about vulnerability and vulnerability mapping. A household survey and interviews were conducted in 2015 for a comparative study of people living on two river islands located upstream and downstream of the barrage. Findings remain relevant because of persistent governance challenges and growing climate change effects, escalating islanders’ vulnerability to recurrent floods. The islanders’ vulnerability was produced locally and also shaped by historical, social, economic, political, geographical, and ecological processes occurring at multiple scales. That insight highlights the need to study the broader political economy of hazard production to understand vulnerability in the context of governance.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historic centers: description of a predictive method and application to the case study of scanno (Abruzzi,Italy)

ABSTRACT

In this article, a predictive model for the seismic vulnerability assessment of old Italian historic centers is presented through its direct application to a meaningful case study, the historic center of Scanno, in Abruzzi, Italy.

The proposed method is calibrated on the basis of the observations carried out on similar historic centers hit by the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake and is applied in order to provide likely damage scenarios by means of fragility curves. The method is based on the evaluation of a limited number of structural and typological parameters that can be obtained by simple and rapid inspections on buildings. In addition, it is conceived in order to provide useful information on the most effective anti-seismic strategies to be implemented on urban scale for pursuing a global mitigation of the seismic risk and for the application of suitable risk reduction policies.

The final aim of the article is to give an applicative vision of the method, by providing instructions on how to judge the features of the buildings that are influential on their seismic behavior, as well as by showing the potentiality of the method itself in providing likely damage scenarios, also with the support of GIS-based representations.     

The Use of a Large-Scale Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Approach for Masonry Façade Walls as an Effective Tool for Evaluating,Managing and Mitigating Seismic Risk in Historical Centers

ABSTRACT

The vulnerability assessment of the building stock in a given territorial area, such as a city or an entire country, is a key prerequisite for evaluating risk, not only because of the potential physical consequences resulting from the occurrence of an event, but also because it is one of the few aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, the rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings followed by the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to substantially reduce the levels of physical damage and economic impact of future events. Particularly regarding the seismic vulnerability assessment of historical centers, the amount of knowledge that has been accumulated over the past decades, together with the broad damage data obtained from post-earthquake damage surveys, provides a singular opportunity to develop and calibrate innovative large-scale seismic vulnerability assessment approaches, which can be used to outline and support risk mitigation and management strategies. This article addresses this issue by discussing the use of a large-scale seismic vulnerability assessment methodology for masonry façade walls as a tool for evaluating the potential benefit resulting from the application of different seismic retrofitting strategies, both considering their contribution to reduce post-event urban losses and accessibility.     

Seismic Risk Assessment of New Zealand Unreinforced Masonry Churches using Statistical Procedures

ABSTRACT

The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence provided extensive evidence of the significant seismic vulnerability of New Zealand unreinforced masonry (URM) churches. Given the high seismicity of the country, the exposure of human lives and the societal significance of ecclesiastic buildings, for both historical and religious reasons, the reduction in seismic vulnerability of this building type is of primary importance. By analyzing the seismic performance of a sample of 80 affected buildings, regression models correlating mean damage levels against ground-motion parameters were developed for observed collapse mechanisms, accounting for vulnerability modifiers whose influence was estimated via statistical procedures. Considering the homogeneity of New Zealand URM churches, the vulnerability models developed for the Canterbury region were extended to the whole country inventory, and a synthetic index was proposed to summarise damage related to several mechanisms. Territorial scale assessment of the seismic vulnerability of churches can assist emergency management efforts and facilitate the identification of priorities for more in-depth analysis of individual buildings. After proper calibration, the proposed approach can be applied to other countries with similar building heritage.