An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

Decomposing the crude divorce rate in five countries: Singapore,Taiwan, South Korea,the UK,and Australia

Over the past few decades, the level of divorce, measured by the crude divorce rate (CDR), has increased dramatically in both the East and the West, but has recently appeared to fall or level off in some countries. To investigate whether the recent decline or stabilisation of the CDRs reflects the real trends in divorce risk, a decomposition analysis was conducted on the changes in the CDRs over the past 20 years on two western and three East Asian countries, namely, the UK, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. The following is observed: the decline in the CDRs of the UK and Australia in the 1990s, and of Taiwan and Korea in the 2000s, was mainly due to shrinkage in the proportion of the married population rather than any reduction in divorce risk; only Australia experienced a genuine reduction in divorce risk between 2001 and 2011; and the continuous increase of Singapore’s divorce level between 1990 and 2010 may be is an unintentional effect of the government’s marriage promotion policies. The shift in the population age structure, and more importantly, the drastic decline in marriage, has seriously distorted the CDRs, making them unreliable indicators for monitoring divorce trends.     

基于管理与环境视角的中国旅游效率研究

从管理和环境的角度对区域旅游产业效率进行分析,测算全要素旅游管理效率和旅游环境影响率,判断究竟是内生变量还是外生环境影响了全要素旅游效率的高低,有助于旅游资源利用方式的优化和产业管理效率的提高。本文利用四阶段DEA模型对剔除环境因素影响的我国区域旅游效率进行实证分析,研究结果表明,2005～2009年我国旅游效率水平总体偏低,旅游业发展管理都是无效的;现阶段旅游效率的提升主要是依赖外生环境的改善,管理效率的提升明显不足;区域间全要素旅游效率、全要素旅游管理效率和旅游环境影响率之间存在明显的区域差异,东部地区全要素旅游效率明显高于中部与西部地区。从提高旅游业管理水平和改善旅游业外部环境方面提出不同区域提高旅游业效率的发展对策：北京、天津、江苏等应重点改善区域旅游管理能力;河北、辽宁、新疆等应从管理和环境两个层面推进;山西、内蒙古和黑龙江等应重点优化外部环境。     

基于手机APP的居民线上行为空间分布特征研究——以南京中心城区为例

智慧社会时代,线上服务逐渐成为大众日常生活的重要组成,深刻影响城市居民的生活、工作及出行方式。论文基于手机信令数据等多源数据,分析了不同年龄段居民在居住区空间基础上的手机APP使用特征,进而总结了休闲娱乐、网络购物及日常服务三类APP的使用强度分布特征。结果表明：(1)休闲娱乐、网络购物与生活服务等成为居民高频使用APP类型,不同年龄段对APP类型存在偏好差异;(2)三类APP高使用强度集聚区与城市中心分布基本吻合,主要分布在商业集聚区、大型居住中心以及大学、景点等周边小区,遵循技术扩散假说,不符合效率假说;(3)不同年龄段使用强度城市分布热点存在差异,另保障房类型居住区其使用三类APP使用强度偏低。     

台湾民众赴大陆旅游客源市场的变动特征研究——基于市场占有率、增长率和竞争态三个维度

本文以1988～2010年台湾民众赴大陆旅游人次的统计数据为基础,从市场占有率、市场增长率和市场竞争态三个维度,对该客源市场的变动特征展开分析。结果表明：该客源市场在大陆入境旅游中的市场占有率自1990后变动相对平缓,主要围绕均线ai=3．50％作小幅变动;其市场增长率变动表现为波动幅度连续强幅、波动高度持续高峰、波动深度正负并存、平均位势总体偏高;整个市场竞争态集聚在均线di为3．50％、极差为1．59％的垂直于x轴的狭小区域内大体作上下变动。     

Factors underlying inflation in Russia 2000–2015

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of continuing inflation in Russia in the period from 2000 to 2015. Although factors causing high inflation changed during this period, such factors as money supply, wages, gas and electricity prices, and ruble exchange rate have been essential factors when analyzing inflation in Russia. This paper focuses on gas and electricity prices that represent state-regulated prices in natural monopoly sectors and that have been factors of price increases specific to Russia. They have been raised by the state in order to narrow the gap between their domestic and international prices. It is suggested that there was a turnaround in 2008 when the role of each inflation factor changed significantly. Concerning the rebound of inflation rate since 2014, the overwhelming influence of depreciation of the ruble is indicated. Institutional factors such as the monopolistic structure of the economy that have kept the inflation rate high in Russia are also suggested.     

Modeling of hydrogen production by serpentinization in ultramafic‐hosted hydrothermal systems: application to the Rainbow field

The production of hydrogen by serpentinization in ultramafic‐hosted hydrothermal systems is simulated by coupling thermodynamic and dynamic modeling in the framework of a thermo‐hydraulic single‐pass model where a high‐temperature hydrothermal fluid moves preferentially through a main canal of high permeability. The alteration of ultramafic rocks is modeled with a first‐order kinetic formulation, wherein the serpentinization rate coefficient, K_r, takes the form: K_r = A exp(?α(T ? T₀)²). In this formulation, α determines the temperature range of the reaction and T₀ is the temperature at which the serpentinization rate reaches its maximum. This model is applied to the Rainbow hydrothermal system, which is situated on the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, and characterized by a high temperature, a high mass flux, and a very high hydrogen concentration. The results show that a first‐order kinetic law gives a useful representation of the kinetics of serpentinization. The estimated value for the parameter A in the temperature‐dependent formulation of the serpentinization rate coefficient lies in the range (1–5) × 10^?11 s^?1. This effective parameter is several orders of magnitude lower than the values obtained from small grain‐size experiments, but in agreement with other published modeling studies of natural systems. Numerical simulations show that the venting site is able to produce the observed high concentration of hydrogen during the whole continuous lifetime of the Rainbow site.     

Roman double-layered crucibles from Autun/France: a petrological and geochemical approach

Eighteen double-layered crucible fragments found in an archaeological excavation site of the Lycée militaire (Autun/France), which dates to the Gallo-Roman period, were analysed with a series of classical mineralogical techniques in order to obtain knowledge about the raw materials of the individual layers. This work focuses on the usage of the crucibles as well as technical aspects of their production. The crucible fragments were studied by using petrographical (optical microscopy), elemental (SEM-EDS, EMPA, XRF-WDS) and mineralogical (XRD) techniques.     

中日泡沫经济的几个话题

在我国经济发展过程中有很多地方与上世纪80年代的日本经济相似,这使得我们考虑中国经济会不会重蹈日本泡沫经济破灭的覆辙。通过对比分析,我们得出当前中国经济与日本泡沫经济还存在许多不同的地方。我国应该积极借鉴日本泡沫危机的经验教训,一方面努力治愈经济发展中存在的弊病;另一方面积极探索我国经济发展的路径与方向,保持我国经济稳定持续的发展。