Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe

In a paper on the effects of the global financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a European Union economist reacts to a companion paper (Åslund, 2001) published in the same issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics on the influence of exchange rate policies on the region's recovery. The author argues that post-crisis corrections in current account deficits in CEE countries do not in themselves signal a return to steady economic growth. Disagreeing with Åslund over the role of loose monetary policy in fostering the region's economic problems, he outlines a number of competitiveness problems that remain to be addressed in the 10 new EU member states of CEE, along with improvements in framework conditions supporting future macroeconomic growth.     

上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

次贷危机中的日本金融经济动向

本文通过分析日本金融市场短期利率、长期利率、股票指数、日元汇率指标的变动,来评估次贷危机对日本金融市场和金融体系产生的影响。文章认为次贷危机使日本丧失了一个难得的金融政策正常化以及走向长期经济增长的机会,日本金融指标变动与美欧的同步化使得日本难以独善其身,而高企的日元汇率随时有反转的可能。     

Degradation of Archaeological Wood Under Freezing and Thawing Conditions—Effects of Permafrost and Climate Change

The degradation of archaeological wood at freezing and thawing temperatures is studied at the site of Qajaa in West Greenland through a combination of environmental monitoring, measurement of oxygen consumption and microscopy of wood samples. Permanently frozen wood is still very well preserved after 2–4000 years, while wood samples that thaw every summer show attack by soft rot and an average density loss of 0.1 g cm^–3 (corresponding to 25% of the dry mass) over the past 27 years. Future increases in temperature may increase the decay rate significantly (Q₁₀ = 4.2 at 0–10°C) but the effects on site depend on local hydrology.     

湿热加速老化法降低古籍修复用纸伸缩性的研究

纸张在浸湿和干燥过程中的伸缩性是影响古籍修复用纸使用性能的重要指标。为了改善新制修复用纸的伸缩率,实验采用湿热加速老化法处理6种修复用纸样品,测定和分析老化过程对纸样伸缩性的影响。结果表明湿热老化可以显著降低纸样的伸缩性,尤其是能明显降低修复用纸的横向伸缩率和干缩率,短时间的湿热老化就能将新制修复用纸的伸缩率降至接近老纸的水平。     

人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡的双重审视

本文针对中美贸易摩擦不断升级这一现状,提出在国际贸易中,由于各方更加关心以本国货币结算的贸易额度以及实物形式的贸易总量,因此只有在剔除了通货膨胀的条件下,以本国货币结算的贸易总额才能在一定程度上代表对外贸易的实物量的整体理论框架。并利用2006～2011年相关数据从中美两国各自视角对人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡的关系进行实证分析,揭示了两者动态关联性中更深层次的客观现实。研究结果表明：人民币汇率变动对中美贸易影响的程度和方向并不明确,人民币汇率不是中美贸易失衡的主要原因等结论。并提出政府应根据不同商品类别制订区别性政策,积极推进所有权统计体系的建立,加强亚洲国家间货币合作等政策建议。     

On the intrinsic accuracy and precision of luminescence dating techniques for fired ceramics

Luminescence dating techniques have been used extensively for archaeological and geological samples. Such techniques are based on thermally or optically stimulated signals. This paper presents simulations of several luminescence techniques for equivalent dose (ED) estimation for ceramic materials containing quartz. The simulations are carried out using a recently published comprehensive kinetic model for quartz, consisting of 11 electron and hole traps and centers. The complete sequence of the experimental protocols for several thermoluminescence (TL) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) techniques are simulated using the same set of kinetic parameters. The specific simulated protocols are: additive dose TL protocol, predose technique (both additive and multiple activation versions), phototransfer protocol, single aliquot regenerative optically stimulated luminescence (SAR-OSL) protocol, and SAR thermoluminescence protocol (SAR-TL). One hundred random variants of the natural samples were generated by keeping the transition probabilities between energy levels fixed, while allowing simultaneous random variations of the concentrations of the 11 energy levels. The relative intrinsic accuracy and precision of the protocols are simulated by calculating the equivalent dose (ED) within the model, for a given natural burial dose of the sample. The intrinsic accuracy of these techniques is estimated by simulating natural irradiation of the samples with a known burial dose, followed by simulation of the luminescence method used to recover the estimated dose ED. The percent difference between the burial dose and the ED value represents the simulated accuracy of the luminescence technique. The relative intrinsic precision of these techniques is estimated by fitting Gaussian probability functions to the ED values obtained with the 100 model variants. It is found that the various techniques can reproduce natural paleodoses in the range 10 mGy–10 Gy with a typical intrinsic accuracy of +1 to 10%. Techniques based on single aliquot protocols were found in general to be more precise than techniques requiring the use of multiple aliquots. In addition, techniques based on interpolation of experimental data were found to be consistently both more precise and accurate than those based on extrapolation of experimental data.     

语用中的民俗

语用中的民俗作为一种语言化现象,包括的范围很广,如副语言习俗、数习俗、言语风尚以及语法、修辞、语音、字诸方面的习俗惯制要素等。本主要通过汉语的例子管中窥豹,对谐音、和谐与对称、言语禁忌、语言崇拜、语言伦理等五种语用民俗作了一些探讨。目的在于揭示语言的化性质、化价值、化功能和语言化的相对性特点。     

先秦诸子语言使用的层次问题

阅读先秦诸子,发现其对语言的态度不尽相同。分析其不同,发现其关注点不同而使用的语言也有不同的层次。明白语言使用的层次性,至少对训诂、阐释、语文教学等有意义。