基于旅游生产线的景区容量算法

现行的风景区空间日容量的计算方法往往大大高估了景区容量。本文以游客在景区中的移动行为为出发点,将景区旅游线路类比为旅游生产线,其中游客为工件、景点为工序。利用旅游生产线的平行移动特征,推导出在景区日开放时间内能够完成景区游玩的游客批数。然后,以景区线路中的瓶颈景点容量为批量,该批量与批数相乘即得到了景区容量。旅游生产线理论填补了景区容量计算理论支撑的空白,并使景区容量计算真正的科学化、合理化。     

北京城市空间认知的影响因素分析

城市空间认知影响因素分析与认知空间格局研究具有同等的重要性。论文基于北京城市空间认知调查问卷数据,引入居民属性等16个变量,利用二值Logistic回归方法,提炼出23个认知地点整体以及交通节点、商场、休闲地三种类型地点的认知影响因素。发现:第一,不同类型地点的认知率影响因素存在异同,其中,存在职住变更是最为显著的共性因子。第二,各类地点中的显著影响因子对认知率的作用大小有明显差异,年龄46-55岁变量是23地点认知率的最重要影响因素,交通节点和商场认知率最重要的影响因素为就业内城四区,而就业地与休闲地距离小于等于6km变量对休闲地认知率的影响最大。第三,各类模型中的影响因素类型不同且影响程度有很大差异,故具有不同属性信息组合的居民认知率不同。     

Measuring use-related fracture velocity in lithic armatures to identify spears,javelins, darts,and arrows

This study employs a brittle fracture-mechanics-based approach to explore the relationship between lithic fracture velocity and precursory loading rate in fine-grained lithic armatures. The data demonstrate that only high-speed dart and arrow armatures are subject to dynamic loading events, whereas spear and javelin armatures are limited to rapid (and quasi-static) loading. The data presented were derived from controlled experiments employing spears, javelins, spearthrower darts, and arrows. Armatures associated with both bow and spearthrower technologies are reliably identified and distinguished from those of low-speed technologies such as spears and javelins. Javelin armatures may also sustain higher velocity fractures than spear armatures, thus permitting the further differentiation of these technologies. The methodology offers a quantitative, non-subjective means to identify the delivery technology associated with a lithic armature.     

辛亥革命元勋王天培将军遗文

辛亥革命元勋贵州籍将领王天培,一生追随孙中山先生革命,笃信三民主义,由于性情直率,胸怀坦荡,遭到蒋介石、何应钦等人嫉妒,以＂莫须有＂罪名陷害,英年早逝。从他撰写的一些对联、讲话、题词、诗歌、信函等遗文里,不难看出王天培聪颖的才华,直率的性格,忠诚的思想,坦荡的胸怀,以及坚定的信念和高尚的气节,不愧是贵州人民的好儿女。     

A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

Two AHA Sessions: The Revolutionary Mr. Kuhn and the Evolutionary Mr. Bertalanffy

Abstract

Quantitative methods of content analysis have become established in most subfields of political science, but remain relatively unutilized in studies of political theory, despite the exclusive focus of that subfield on textual sources. This article develops a variation of content analysis—termed usage analysis—and employs it to resolve a standing debate in scholarship on Cicero's political theory regarding the synonymy of the major Latin terms for the state (civitas and res publica). The resulting distinction between these concepts then informs an exposition of Cicero's ideal state not as the Roman Republic itself or the mixed constitution alone, but as a universal, everlasting political society supported by justice, a mixed constitution, and active citizenship.     

Estimating Historical Total Fertility Rates for Australia and Its States

Abstract.

Australian Bureau of Statistics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) statistics are available from 1921 for Australia, and for census years between 1947 and 1966 for the states, and then on an annual basis from 1971. Using historical, statistical publications, annual TFRs for Australia and the states dating back to federation in 1901 were calculated directly in years where data are available and estimated indirectly via the standardized fertility ratio in other years. For some periods where direct TFR estimation was applied, age-specific births used in the numerators of fertility rates must be estimated from partial data. Combined with Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the authors’ estimated TFRs contribute an uninterrupted time series of national and state TFRs for Australia from 1901 to 2011.     

The Author Responds

Abstract

Administrative practices, political initiatives, and budgetary concerns are eroding the ability of most universities to fulfill their mission as engines of meritocratic upward mobility. Colleges fulfilled this mission because they signaled that a student had acquired—or had always possessed—superior skills. Elite universities admit students who we know can succeed: Upward mobility occurred because other schools took chances on students whose backgrounds suggested that they might or might not succeed. Pushes to improve undergraduate retention and completion rates at these other universities result in a lowering of standards that threatens their signaling role, and with it, their ability to open doors for their students.     

游客抽样调查中"拒答"现象的原因分析及应对措施——以崆峒山游客抽样调查为例

本文对游客抽样调查中的拒答现象和拒绝率进行了阐述和分析,探讨了拒答现象产生的原因和应对措施。指出：游客抽样调查中的拒答现象是值得重视又容易忽视的,是旅游流、旅游心理、旅游目的地类型和其他社会因素综合作用的结果,而非单纯地由游客心理决定。所以要降低拒绝率,需要从消除游客心理障碍和提高游客主动参与性入手,促使游客主动配合调查,减少拒绝现象,提高调查的成功率和准确率。     

The Influence of Soil Moisture,Temperature and Oxygen on the Oxic Decay of Organic Archaeological Deposits

The sensitivity of organic‐rich archaeological layers at Bryggen in Bergen, Norway, to changes in soil temperatures, water contents and oxygen concentrations is investigated. This is done by linking measurements of oxic decay at varying temperatures and water contents with on‐site monitoring data using a one‐pool decomposition model. The results show that the model can be used to elucidate the current in situ decay and to evaluate where and when the decay takes place. Future investigations need to include long‐term incubation experiments and decay studies at zero or very low oxygen contents in order to improve the robustness of predictions.