A probabilistic framework for assessing spatio-temporal point patterns in the archaeological record

The assessment of spatial patterns in archaeology is hampered by a number of constraints, one of the most serious of which is the intrinsic temporal uncertainty associated with most of the archaeological record. Different types of chronological definition or different degrees of temporal knowledge will suggest different kinds of spatial pattern, ultimately obscuring and restricting our interpretation of the background process, especially in cases where we are seeking a diachronic perspective. This paper addresses these problems by adopting both a probabilistic approach and a more standardised framework for diachronic analysis. First, we define the notion of temporal uncertainty and explore its analytical consequences. Second, we consider two methods by which it might be formally quantified, emphasising (a) the advantages of probability-weighted spatial analysis and (b) the comparison of alternative spatio-temporal patterns via Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, we apply these methods to a case study that considers the distribution of Middle to Late Jomon (ca.5000–3000 BP) pithouses recorded in the Chiba New Town area of Japan.     

A real options approach to amenity valuation: The role of uncertainty and risk aversion

Many empirical studies in the fields of urban and environmental economics rely on the hedonic pricing framework. This paper draws attention to two important elements that are not covered by this theory: uncertainty and relocation costs. It develops a theoretical model where agents face uncertainty, but may accumulate savings as a form of self‐insurance. It shows that uncertainty pushes up relocation costs due to the option value of waiting, while self‐insurance helps to reduce this lock‐in problem. Moreover, the model suggests that the implicit price of environmental quality increases with uncertainty even if agents are risk‐neutral.     

Comparing expeditious procedures for the seismic vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context: reliability,feasibility, cost,and time consumption

ABSTRACT

The definition of strategies for the preservation and protection of cultural heritage is a topical issue, especially in view of the increasing relevance of the theme of seismic risk mitigation and reduction.

The prediction of the impact an earthquake could have on existing buildings requires the knowledge of their dynamic behaviour. The procedure to be adopted for this purpose is quite complex and onerous in terms of costs, time, and implementation, especially when the study concerns territorial areas rather than single buildings. The definition of methodologies aimed at respecting the principles of economic sustainability and preserving human life and architectural heritage is of paramount importance to assess seismic vulnerability using available resources. Rapid methods for the seismic vulnerability assessment, aimed at defining buildings vulnerability and intervention priority lists, must be implemented to guarantee the preservation of historical centers.

This article describes the application to some case studies of different methods aimed at creating fragility curves for the vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context. The comparison between a deterministic approach and a new probabilistic one is performed for all case studies, to define the most suitable methodology in terms of reliability and savings in cost and time.     

On “Natural” Uncertainty: The Philosophical Underpinnings of Uncertainty in Economics,with Special Reference to Knight and Strauss

Abstract

While current discourse has failed and will continue to fail to adequately integrate uncertainty into economic theory, this work explores how political philosophy can provide a better understanding of uncertainty. Specifically, political philosophy can answer most of the questions posed by Frank Knight's proposition of uncertainty in economic theory. In elaborating on Knight's reservations relating to Pragmatism, this work suggests that Knight's approach might well be revised to more adequately embrace the recent developments in American philosophy, especially those suggested by Leo Strauss. Significantly, it can be argued that Strauss provides a stronger foundation for the proposition of uncertainty in economic theory than Knight's application of Pragmatism around 1921. An understanding of uncertainty, which is based on Strauss, might be referred to as “natural” uncertainty, and this form of uncertainty may provide a point where political philosophy might begin to gain some traction within economic theory.     

Indeterminacy in-decisions – science, policy and politics in the BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy) crisis

Increasingly, non-human geographies have unfastened nature from its foundational moorings. In a parallel development, the benefits of adhering to precautionary and participatory forms of decision-making have become common place in environmental geography and in government policy. And yet, on closer inspection, there is a danger in these latter approaches that old certainties regarding non-human natures remain unquestioned. The result can be a tendency to gravitate towards bureaucratic and technical solutions to, or closures on, what are, first and foremost, political and open-ended problems. This paper uses an empirical engagement with BSE-related scientific and policy practices, along with insights from non-human geographies, science studies and poststructuralism to suggest that such certainties and resolutions are misplaced.     

Identity,uncertainty and responsibility: privileging place in a risk society

That young people today reside within social worlds of unprecedented ‘risk’ is a persuasive position. While such discourses have become increasingly pervasive, there has been little interest in exploring contemporary shifts within specific socio-geographic contexts: place has been largely invisible. This paper considers Ulrich Beck's ‘risk society’ theses as a framework for exploring the experiences of 85 young residents of a regional Australian centre. These young people's stories revealed complex and often contradictory, tensions in relation to identity, uncertainty and responsibility. Socio-geographic location was found to be a significant feature in the negotiation and repercussion of these young people's lives.     

从出土碑刻看清中晚期韩江流域的行商风险

韩江自古以来就是闽西、粤东、赣南的商贸大动脉,韩江航运带动了上下游之间的商贸交流.明清时期,随着商品经济的发展,航运贸易为客商带来了丰厚的利润,但是在行商途中也面临诸多的风险,如官吏勒索、艇户讹诈、牙商侵渔等.为了谋利保命,客商们赴官申控、建立会馆公所、设立船局来规避风险,取得了一定的成效.     

不确定性规避对游客旅游目的地形象感知的影响研究:以张家界为例

现有研究成果表明,文化差异会影响游客对旅游目的地形象的感知,使形象感知形成差异化,因此有人认为文化差异必然导致形象感知差异。本文采用Hofstede的高/低不确定性规避文化维度,通过问卷划分高/低不确定性规避游客群体,并调查其对目的地的认知、情感和总体形象的感知。研究发现,高不确定性规避和低不确定性规避两个游客群体对张家界认知形象中的信息和交通方面的感知存在显著差异,在情感形象和总体形象的感知上并不存在明显差异。     

COMMUNICATING INVASION: UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL ANXIETIES AROUND MOBILE SPECIES

This article explores how discourses of threat concerning invasive alien species emerge and how ordinary citizens understand, receive and appropriate them. It explores the ambivalence of scientists and policy‐makers using emotive or highly charged terms and vocabulary, arguing that many make strategic yet cautious use of fear to raise awareness. Based both on in‐depth interviews of scientists and/or expert policy‐makers involved in communicating with the public about invasive species, as well as citizen focus groups, it further discusses how individuals reflect critically on the terms used in written documents. We argue that the various scientific uncertainties concerning the impacts of invasive species foster and feed other domains of social anxiety beyond the usual concern previous research has shown for xenophobic connotations. These include wider fears about environmental technology, science and expertise, changing environments, and threats to human health.     

REPRODUCING AND RESHAPING ETHNIC RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION IN STOCKHOLM: THE ROLE OF SELECTIVE MIGRATION MOVES

This paper deals with the issues of selective migration moves, and the production and reproduction of immigrantdense neighbourhoods in Stockholm, Sweden. It has been shown earlier that selective migration, that is, socioeconomic and ethnic differences between those leaving, entering and staying in so‐called deprived neighbourhoods, reproduces these neighbourhoods' characteristics of being poor and immigrant dense. Key concepts launched to inform such studies and derived from the US segregation discourse are “white fight” and “white avoidance”, meaning that native people (or white people in the US case) tend to leave neighbourhoods experiencing growing numbers of immigrants (black people) and which they also tend to avoid moving into such neighbourhoods. Using a complete set of geo‐coded longitudinal individual data for the 2005–2008 Stockholm County population, this paper contributes to our understanding of ethnic differences in the intra‐urban migration system. Three empirical questions are addressed: what individual characteristics distinguish (1) those who move into neighbourhoods experiencing rapidly increasing immigrant densities from those moving elsewhere in the urban region; (2) those who leave neighbourhoods experiencing rapidly increasing immigrant densities from those who stay put; (3) those who move in the direction of higher immigrant densities from those moving into lower densities? Results from multivariate statistical analyses provide support for the avoidance hypothesis but less support for the fight hypothesis. When controlling for a range of individual and neighbourhood attributes there is clear evidence that native‐born Swedes are less inclined than most immigrant categories to move into immigrant dense areas while ethnic origin does not seem to matter much when explaining who leaves such areas.