互联网的传播作用对旅游目的地演化的影响——基于婺源的个案研究

本文旨在探讨互联网这一信息传播媒介在旅游目的地演化中的作用机制。研究以婺源为案例地,经三方资料(田野调查、网络数据、样本访谈)互证后还原了婺源旅游业发展过程。研究发现,在婺源的旅游地生命周期演进中,互联网作为新兴媒介,沟通小圈子传播与大众传播,促进了旅游地从探查阶段向参与阶段演化;互联网的早期传播在提升目的地知名度的同时使游客到访量渐增,为政府介入旅游发展奠定了市场基础,推动了目的地快速发展;进入发展阶段后,互联网作为互动传播媒介的优势使政府宣传、名人效应、事件营销的传播被放大。研究突破了单纯将互联网作为营销工具看待的局限性观点,把互联网作为影响旅游目的地演化的因素纳入到目的地演化理论范畴,深化并补充了旅游地生命周期理论的相关内容。     

我国出境旅游发展水平的国际比较研究

出境旅游市场是我国当前三大旅游市场中增长最快的市场,对出境旅游发展水平与阶段的正确认识是理论研究与政策实践的基础。基于全球44个主要的国际旅游客源国家与地区的1980年至2004年出境旅游及相关数据,本文采用截面回归与面板数据模型进行的研究发现：随着人均GDP与人均国民总收入的增长,一国的出境旅游率将会呈现指数形态的上升,在现价美元16000元左右将会出现出境旅游的爆发性增长;但一国的出境旅游率存在大国效应,人口规模与出境旅游率呈负相关关系;研究结果还显示,只有经济发展到达一定阶段后,经济增长速度对出境旅游增长的影响才会明显表现出来。     

我国主题旅游集群的成长及其空间特征研究

主题旅游集群的形成发展,主要是受追求规模经济、游客差异性偏好和要素集聚积极推动的影响。研究分析我国主题旅游集群的成长、扩张及其空间效应,有助于主题旅游集群区决策部门加强系统规划,通过追求技术和表现形式的创新进步,通过政策环境的改善、空间结构的优化布局以及产业链延伸,从而打造极具竞争力的国际化主题旅游集群。     

Variation in the taphonomic effect of scavengers in semi‐arid Australia linked to rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation

Scavenging is one of the primary taphonomic processes shaping the final composition of fossil faunal assemblages. The taphonomic effect of scavengers is variable and must be understood in the context of the causes of that variation. In this study, we investigated relationships between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), variable rainfall and scavenging on 20–40 kg mammal carcasses in semi‐arid New South Wales over four years. Following periods of above‐average rainfall (coincident with the La Niña phase of the ENSO), there was an increased availability of non‐carrion food and scavenging activity was moderate. Following below‐average rainfall (coincident with the El Niño phase of the ENSO), foraging options diminished, leading to a greater importance of carrion in the diet of scavengers and a resultant increase in carcass disturbance, transport and destruction by scavengers. Feral pigs (Sus scrofa) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were the most taphonomically significant scavengers in the study. Australian ravens (Corvus coronoides) and wedge‐tailed eagles (Aquila audax) were active scavengers throughout the period of the study, but had little impact on bone survival. Lace monitors (Varanus varius) also fed mostly on soft tissue and were only present seasonally. We found that climate variability in the form of short‐term oscillation can result in significant variation in the impact of scavengers on carcasses and may be an important consideration when evaluating site formation scenarios and biases in fossil faunal assemblages. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

RISK FACTORS IN THE RAPIDLY RISING INCIDENCE OF DIVORCE IN KOREA

For just over a decade between 1990 and 2003, the crude divorce rate tripled from 1.1 to 3.5 in Korea. Using the combined data from two nationally representative surveys of women conducted in 1997 and 2002, this study examines the risk factors of divorce and attempts to provide insights into the rising divorce rate in Korea. The findings show that the period effects on the probability of divorce remain unexplained after taking into account several risk factors. This may suggest societal-level transformations in normative regimes regarding divorce, which seem to have accelerated after the economic recession in the late 1990s. Independent of period effects, women's employment in white-collar occupations and declining fertility increase the risk of divorce, whereas women's unpaid work in the family business and college education lower the risk of divorce. Divorce rates are highest in the middle stage of marital duration in Korea.     

Pliocene sand injectites from a submarine lobe fringe during hydrocarbon migration and salt diapirism: a seismic example from the Lower Congo Basin

Large‐scale conical and saucer‐shaped sand injectites have been identified in the Upper Miocene sediments of the Lower Congo Basin. These structures are evidenced on the 3D high‐resolution seismic data at about 600 ms TWT (two‐way traveltime) beneath the seabed. The conical and saucer‐shaped anomalies range from 20 to 80 m in height, 50 to 300 m in diameter, and 10 to 20 ms TWT in thickness. They are located within a sedimentary interval of about 100 m in thickness and are aligned over 20 km in dip direction (NE‐SW), above the NW margin of an underlying Upper Miocene submarine fan. We have interpreted the conical and saucer‐shaped anomalies as upward‐emplaced sand injectites sourced from the Upper Miocene fan because of their discordant character, the postsedimentary uplifting of the sediments overlying the cones and saucer‐shaped bodies, the alignment with the lateral fringe of the Upper Miocene submarine fan, and the geological context. Sand injection dates from the Miocene–Pliocene transition (approximately 5.3 Ma). The prerequisite overpressure to the sand injection process may be due to the buoyancy effect of hydrocarbons accumulated in the margins of the fan. Additionally, overpressure could have been enhanced by the lateral transfer of fluids operating in the inclined margins of the lobe. The short duration of sand injection and the presence of many sandstone intrusions suggested that the process of injection was triggered by an event, likely due to a nearby fault displacement related to diapiric movements. This is the first time that sand injectites of seismic scale have been described from the Lower Congo Basin. The localized nature of these injectites has led to a change in the migration path of fluids through the sedimentary cover. Consequently, the sand intrusions are both evidence and vectors of fluid migration within the basin fill.     

一般均衡视角的旅游产业福利效应研究——基于中国四个世界双遗产旅游地的面板数据分析

本文利用一般均衡理论,以图解分析法分析旅游产业快速发展对旅游目的地所产生的福利效应。研究显示,旅游产业快速发展对旅游目的地GDP增长率有显著的积极影响,推动了社会福利水平的提升,但对旅游目的地CPI、居民实际收入、工农业等相关产业发展、收入分配、社会治安、生态环境等有显著的消极影响,又在一定程度上降低了当地居民的社会福利,其最终影响取决于积极影响与消积影响的＂双向均衡＂。同时,以中国四个世界自然与文化双遗产旅游区为实证研究对象验证了这种＂双向均衡＂社会福利效应的存在性。研究为我国不同旅游目的地旅游产业的产业定位与可持续发展的政策制定提供了一定的借鉴。     

Migration and the location of MNE activities: Evidence from Italian provinces

We investigate the migration-inward foreign direct investment (FDI) nexus in narrow geographies. A novel two-stage empirical strategy allows us to investigate the role of migration as a determinant of multinational enterprises (MNEs) location choices and unpick heterogeneity in foreign investors' preferences towards the presence of migrants in the host location. This allows us to shed light on the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms linking migration and inward FDI. Relying on 1113 greenfield investments by 895 MNEs in Italian NUTS3 regions over 2003–2015, we find that immigrants from the country of origin of the investor exert a positive but highly heterogeneous effect on MNE location choices. Investors are more sensitive to the presence of migrants from their country of origin when they lack experience in the destination country (first-time investors) and when their investments concern market-access or business-services (downstream) activities. This is consistent with the view that migrants act as information brokers that bridge the fixed costs of international business activities.     

论学校德育工作实效性的缺失

学校德育工作的目的在于培养学生良好的道德品质,促进学生自身美德与善性的统一,以减少不良道德行为的形成和发展。改革开放使我国社会结构由内向封闭型走向外向开放型,各种思想观点、价值观念、思维方式等在影响社会的同时也在影响着学生,学校德育工作陷入了前所未有的困境。若要摆脱学校德育工作中所面临的困境,则必须探索产生这种困境的内在原因,只有这样,才能把握学校德育工作的方向,提高德育工作的质量和实效性。     

社区归属感对乡村旅游地居民社区参与的影响——以浙江安吉为例

乡村旅游地居民是社区参与的主体,社区参与是乡村旅游地可持续发展的重要前提,目前社区归属感对乡村旅游地居民社区参与的影响机制和路径研究较为薄弱。基于文献回顾,引入旅游获益中介变量,构建乡村旅游地居民的社区归属感——社区参与结构方程模型。以浙江安吉为例,通过实地问卷调查采集数据,探讨社区归属感对社区参与的影响机制及路径。研究表明：乡村旅游地居民社区归属感对旅游获益和社区参与均有显著正向影响,旅游获益是社区归属感影响社区参与的中介变量;社区归属感对社区参与既有直接效应又有间接效应,其直接效应（0．48）远远高于通过中介变量旅游获益对社区参与的间接效应（0．55×0．27）;旅游地居民对个人职业与旅游业的关系的重视程度要高于家庭成员职业与旅游业的关系。最后提出了促进乡村旅游发展的若干建议和研究不足。