陈宣帝太建北伐述论

陈氏太建北伐,系东晋南朝北伐史上的绝响之作。陈宣帝太建北伐的政治策略,是联周击齐;战争进程是先取江淮,而后强争黄淮交战于周。就南北对峙军事要地与江左国土安全关系论,太建北伐是内含战略防御与战略进攻的双重底蕴的。但陈氏起于南朝末造,经济武备均不及北朝,陈宣帝不能审此而失之烛远,穷兵远略将不可避免最终的失败。太建北伐始胜于周齐交争之隙,终败于北周统一北方之际,要在“合纵图齐”政略选择的失误;太建北伐最终归于失败,要在不仅折兵阃外再失淮泗,而影响亦及于南北统一的历史进程。     

从和平外交到革命外交——20世纪50年代中后期我国外交战略大转变国际原因探析

20世纪50年代中后期,我国外交战略经历了一个从“和平外交”到“革命外交”的大转变。促使这种大转变发生的原因是复杂的、多元的,其中国际因素占有重要地位。本文对此进行分析、归纳与研究,以就教于方家。     

Changes in Japanese strategy in 1939–1940 and the internationalization of the Sino–Japanese War

In the early stage of the Sino–Japanese War, Japan was trying hard to limit the conflict to within a scope where it could be resolved bilaterally between only the two nations involved. However, her actual behavior was in stark contrast to her wishful desire to be at peace with the United States, pushing the latter step by step instead in the direction of aiding China and thwarting Japan. Caught in a dilemma created as the United States abrogated the American–Japanese Treaty of Commerce and Navigation, and faced with the changes in the European situation, Japan’s policy makers were eventually pushed by their obsession with the “New East Asian Order” and by their yearning for the “Extended New East Asian Order” which was to include Southeast Asia, deciding to steer the Sino–Japanese War in the direction of “international resolution,” which was just an alternate route to the same goal sought by China. Subsequently, not only did Japan refuse to withdraw from China, she actually took one step further in an expansion southwards, trying to kill several birds with one stone. The war thus spilled over from China to encompass a much greater area. In this process, Japan’s diplomatic corps was often several steps ahead of the military, reflecting the carefully considered background in Japanese policymaking.     

Variability and sampling strategy of cave wall concretion: Case study of the moonmilk found in Leye Cave (Dordogne)

Cave Art is a fragile testimony of past human societies and the development of modern behaviours. In limestone caves, moonmilk commonly endanger the artworks. It is a calcite deposit with a large variability of chemical composition and morphological structures and it hosts numerous microbial communities. The possibility to characterize this deposit in the field would aid in a better understanding of cave behaviour and allow the setting up of proper conservation measures. The present study analyses the variability of a moonmilk strip of metric size in Leye Cave in the Vézère Valley (Dordogne, France). The cave was not ornate and was selected as a laboratory cave in which in‐situ observations and micro‐sampling could be carried out, before they were performed in cavities hosting parietal artworks. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations of 24 samples allowed, for the first time, an investigation of the variability of moonmilk deposits over the same wall of a few metres dimension. The observations highlighted the low variability of the moonmilk at the microscopic scale when regarding the chemical composition and morphological structures, despite significant macroscopic diversity, thus providing insights into how to optimize the sampling strategy of moonmilk in ornate caves.     

Jewish Refugees in Cyprus and British Imperial Sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean, 1933–1949

This paper focuses on the use of the British Colony of Cyprus as a clearing ground for Jewish refugees on route to Palestine before, during, and after the Second World War. While acknowledging the historiographical consensus underscoring Cyprus’ renewed strategic importance in the context of British post-Second World War imperial retreat in the East, the article argues that Jewish transmigration revealed new potential uses for the island which in turn contributed to confirm British sovereignty in that possession. Drawing on British and Cypriot sources, the article further shows the transformative impact of Jewish transmigration for Cyprus politics as it induced British authorities, who had established an authoritarian regime in the island in the 1930s, to invoke Cypriot reactions in order to stem the flow of refugees to the island. This paved the way for future policies meant to redefine the relations between rulers and ruled. As the management of refugees coming to Cyprus during the period under scrutiny relied on ever more refined instruments of classification, the paper finally highlights the contribution of Empire to the crafting of official categories to designate people on the move—‘refugees’, ‘illegal immigrants’—which still inform European migration policies.     

以西安为中心的关中城市群的结构优化及其方略

城市群是城市化发展的新形态,也是区域经济发展中的"发展极"。以西安为中心的关中城市群已经形成了西部经济"发展极"的初始条件,成为了西部经济发展的核心地带。以西安为中心的关中城市群的基本现状是:城市群总规模较小,中等城市数量少,小城镇发展滞后。从目前提高竞争力和带动西部经济发展的目标来看,面临着完善空间结构、功能结构和时序结构的任务。在空间结构优化方面,要强化西安中心城市的作用,培育二级中心城市,完善小城镇建设体系,以西安为中心构筑四大城镇群。在功能结构完善方面,要强化城市群区的联系,进行城市群中各个城市功能和性质的重新定位;从时序结构的完善来看,要以增强中心城市的吸引力和辐射力为目标,从近期、远期和远景三个方面安排时序结构。     

论近代中国后发棉纺织小企业的纵向一体化战略——以常州广益布厂为例

错过了＂黄金时代＂的部分后发棉纺织小企业通过纵向一体化战略成功发展成为中型企业集团。常州广益布厂,以棉织生产为战略突破口,抓住机器印染业方兴的趋势,先前向一体化印染生产,再后向一体化纺纱生产,最终发展成为大成纺织印染集团。这一战略给大成带来了节省交易成本、稳定交易关系、防御竞争对手的优效作用。这一成功案例为后发小企业的发展提供了借鉴。     

试论中国水下文化遗产的法制建设与国际合作

我国水下文化遗产保护受到关注的时间较晚,虽然近年发展速度较快,但距离形成一种更为理想的水下文化遗产保护体制和机制的要求还相差很大。本文初步对我国水下文化遗产的法律建设进行了介绍和分析,并介绍了联合国《保护水下文化遗产公约》试图由水下文化遗产的国际合作的视角,探讨如何利用国际规则促进我国水下文化遗产事业的发展。     

Prediction and its discontents: guidance for Australia from the debate over social science forecasting

The well-documented failure of many experts to predict many events of strategic importance—from 9/11 to the global financial crisis to the Arab Spring—has led to a fashionable belief amongst some academics and popular commentators that prediction is a ‘fool's errand’. Problems inherent in forecasting political events, such as cognitive biases, strategic interaction, complexity effects and various others, make this an attractive position. However, although a proper degree of humility is warranted about the ability to predict strategic events, this article argues that not making predictions at all is not an option. No genuinely workable policy advice could flow to Australian policy makers unless analysts are able, however roughly, to try to forecast the future. Moreover, with some hard, determined work, social scientists have recently produced work which promises to be able to foresee important events such as state failures and civil wars with reasonable accuracy. Experts should be encouraged to make, and should routinely be evaluated on, predictions about their area of expertise. Even failed predictions can be useful in pointing up gaps in knowledge and understanding which would otherwise have remained opaque.     

《全宋诗》补遗12首

《全宋诗》总成一代诗歌之文献,其疏漏在所难免。清代谢启昆的《粤西金石略》曾为《全宋诗》编著者所采用,然而翻检《粤西金石略》,发现仍有遗珠。今比对《全宋诗》所录及诸家所补之篇什,补其所遗宋诗12首,以期对宋诗研究有些许裨益。