基于旅游者网络关注度的旅游景区日游客量预测研究——以不同客户端百度指数为例

网络搜索引擎是旅游者获取旅游信息的最重要入口,百度指数通过反映关键词被搜索的次数表征旅游者的网络关注度。文章以三清山为例,首先利用协整理论及格兰杰因果检验分析了PC端和移动端百度指数与实际游客量之间的关系,进一步建立日游客量ARMA模型和分别加入PC 端和移动端百度指数的VAR模型,对游客量预测结果及预测能力进行比较分析,以期通过不同客户端、不同搜索关键词来填补游客量预测过程中旅游网络数据提取的单一性,得到更好的预测效果。发现移动端比PC端百度指数模型具有更好的预测效果,移动端比PC端百度指数对实际游客量的变动具有更好的解释能力。     

吴越细绳纹类青铜礼器成形技术研究

吴越青铜器发展到春秋中晚期,出现了一批极富地域文化特色的青铜器,器表饰有细绳纹和细薄而峻深的纹饰,或在纹饰间布满细芒刺突起的棘刺纹。本工作通过对吴越青铜器陶范铸造技术的探索和吴越细绳纹类青铜礼器的复原试验,以期揭示出这类细绳纹类青铜礼器的成形技术。实验过程是以绳索为模,在湿陶范内埋入绳索,当陶范入窑焙烧时,绳索焚烧后形成绳索状凹槽,浇注青铜液后则成为具有突起状绳纹装饰的青铜器。焚烧绳索形成纹饰,是一种在平面上形成三维纹饰的技艺,能在青铜器表面形成规整的绳纹,可能为东周时期吴越地区古代工匠铸造细绳纹类青铜礼器的一种方法。     

遗传基因技术与三峡考古实践

遗传基因技术是新兴起的前沿学科领域,将这一方法应用于三峡考古的实践在国内还是首次。本通过对重庆库区石地磅汉代墓地出土人类遗骨基因的采样、测试和分辨,得出了墓主人可能是南方土居民初步认识,这一认识与考古类型学分析结果可以互证。     

一种饱水木质文物含水率无损检测方法的研究

含水率是评估饱水木质文物糟朽程度最常用的物理参数之一。目前含水率检测常用方法有烘干法、电阻法、近红外光谱法等,但这些方法或属于破坏性分析,或检测范围不适用。为寻找一种适用于饱水木质文物含水率的无损检测方法,基于饱水木材组成理论模型,建立了含水率与湿态密度、灰分含量三者之间关系,进而提出一种检测含水率的便捷方法——溶液密度法。采用上述方法对天长、淮北等地出土饱水木质样品含水率进行测试,并与烘干法测得标准值进行验证。结果发现两者数据较为接近,相对误差在10%以内,证明了该方法的可靠性。进一步研究发现,样品越糟朽,使用该方法获取的数据与标准值之间相对误差越小。说明该方法更适用于糟朽饱水木材含水率的检测。     

Blind tests in microscopic residue analysis: comments on Wadley et al. (2004)

In this comment, we critique a recent paper by Wadley, Lombard and Williamson entitled ‘The first residue analysis blind tests: results and lessons learnt’ (Journal of Archaeological Science 31 (2004) 1491–1501) as a means of assessing the role and utility of such blind tests. We find that apart from not being the first residue analysis blind tests, the tests conducted by Wadley et al. exhibit problems at each stage of experimental design. Most of the issues identified can be attributed to loss of experimental control, including lack of documentation of residues prior to blind testing and contamination of their samples. We suggest possible means of avoiding these issues in future microscopic residue analysis blind tests.     

微生物诱导碳酸钙修复汉白玉石梁裂缝试验研究

石质文物劣化后产生裂缝等病害,需要恰当的修复方法。本研究应用微生物诱导碳酸钙沉积技术修复汉白玉石梁裂缝,模拟石质文物裂缝修复。研究对象为带V型槽的非贯通和贯通裂缝的汉白玉石梁(尺寸为40 mm×40 mm×160 mm),修复方法为先注浆后自由下渗。通过对比石梁修复前后破坏荷载和强度的变化以及CT扫描技术可视化非贯通裂缝修复过程来评价修复效果。结果显示:修复后石梁裂缝表面致密光滑,颜色与母材相近,整体美观性好;非贯通裂缝修复后破坏荷载均有所增加,贯通裂缝修复后的抗折强度能恢复到原有强度的35.12%,均值为3.684 MPa,最高能达到5.234 MPa;CT扫描结果定性和定量均表明胶凝体密度随修复进行而增加,接触面修复质量弱于其他位置。     

Is It Hop? Identifying Hop Fibres in a European Historical Context

Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) is an ancient perennial crop plant, native to the Northern Hemisphere. The archaeological evidence dates back to at least the sixth century ad in Europe. Hop has been used for beer brewing, in sleeping draughts, as bedding and for antibacterial purposes. Less known is that hop fibres have also been used for textiles and paper. However, it is difficult to distinguish hop from other bast fibres. Here, we present a set of fibre features, which, when found together in an archaeological/historical material within a European context, provide a strong indication that the fibres are hop.     

Santa Maria di Collemaggio Church (L’Aquila,Italy): Historical Reconstruction by Non-Destructive Testing Techniques

The main goal of this work was the non-destructive testing (NDT) of an ancient fresco (15th century) preserved in the Santa Maria di Collemaggio Church (L’Aquila, Italy) and damaged after the 2009 earthquake. Active infrared thermography (IRT), near-infrared (NIR) reflectography and ultraviolet imaging (UV) were used. In addition, the state of the fresco prior to the earthquake was analyzed by electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI), digital speckle correlation (DSC), raking light, tap, and chemical NDT techniques. The use of these techniques was important for the monitoring of new damages and for a comparison between the results over the years. Square heating thermography (SHT) data were processed using principal component thermography (PCT) and pulsed phase thermography (PPT) algorithms, in order to improve the defects’ signature and to reduce the impact of non-uniform heating and emissivity variations due to the painting’s pigments. A multi-analysis approach, segmentation operators and a specific data correlation method emphasize the overall study of the fresco. Furthermore, the facade and the high altar area were inspected by passive thermography and ground-penetrating radar (GPR), respectively. In the present case, the combined use of NDT techniques was useful to fill in the gaps in the construction history of the building.     

我国旅游业发展与经济增长的关系研究——基于不同省份的个体数据和面板数据分析

本文利用个体数据和面板数据的VAR模型和格兰奇因果检验,分析我国各个省份和不同经济区域的旅游业发展与经济增长的关系。基本结论是：从面板数据分析来看,总体上二者之间存在一种长期均衡和双向因果关系,但旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献要小于经济增长对旅游业发展的贡献;我国不同经济区域之间二者的因果关系表现出较强的地理差异性,东部发达地区“经济增长对旅游业发展的影响”远大于“旅游业发展对经济增长的影响”,中部地区次之,西部地区因果关系正好相反,东北地区为“经济增长影响旅游业发展”的单向因果关系;从单个省份的格兰奇因果关系看,仅13个省市的LGDP和LTOUR之间存在长期均衡关系,大部分省份存在双向因果关系,但在影响强度上有较大差异。     

Detecting modes in low-dimensional archaeological data

An approach to testing for modes in low-dimensional data, Silverman’s test, novel in an archaeological setting, is described and illustrated. ‘Patterns’ in archaeological data can be suggested by the presence of modes. Reassurance is needed that modes suggested by graphical analysis are genuine before attempting substantive archaeological interpretation. The test either provides such reassurance, or else guards against over-interpretation, particularly with small samples. Data on loomweight dimensions, lead isotope ratios, and ceramic compositions are used to illustrate use of the test, dealing with issues concerning outliers and small samples as they arise. The focus is on univariate mode detection.