粤东地区考古学文化与环境的互动

粤东地区全新世的考古学文化具有鲜明的地方特色,不同时间的古文化在文化面貌和生计方式上存在着明显差别。本文在分析粤东地区汉以前区域气候波动和海平面升降的基础上,探讨了该地区不同考古学文化聚落形态的特点以及人地之间相互作用的过程。     

商末黄河中游气候环境的变化与社会变迁

新石器时代到商代黄河流域的气候属于温暖湿润期;商代后期气候出现厂干旱化,导致了古公亶父迁岐,文王迁程迁丰,帝乙帝辛时不断向南方发展;而商末的旱灾和饥荒是周武王克商的直接导火索,导致商周之际的改朝换代。商末气候环境的变迁对其时社会政治的影响极大。     

A climate terrorism assemblage? Exploring the politics of climate change-terrorism-radicalisation relations

Despite a series of claims from Bernie Sanders (2015), Barack Obama (2015), and others arguing that climate change, radicalisation, and terrorism are connected by complex causal relationships, there is very little academic examination of the politics of these claims. Building on DeLanda’s (2006) account of assemblages and social complexity, this paper conceptualises climate change-terrorism-radicalisation relationships as a ‘climate terrorism assemblage’. A ‘climate terrorism assemblage’ is a complex, emergent ‘whole’ formed from a heterogeneous range of interacting geopolitical components (e.g. climatic factors, migration, think tanks and academic publications, and a discourse of ‘climate security’). Specifically, a climate terrorism assemblage is characterised by ‘strategic territorialisations’: context-specific, multi-scalar points at which political claims of causal links between climate change, terrorism, and radicalisation are crystallised. Strategic territorialisations are produced in two, interrelated contexts. First, using the case study of the Syrian Conflict, a climate terrorism assemblage reveals an intricate, contested politics of ‘drawing lines’ which link climate change, terrorism, and radicalisation. Secondly, the paper argues that, at the points at which causal links are constructed between climate change, terrorism and radicalisation, a climate terrorism assemblage territorialises around intersectional subject formations, in particular a young masculine subject vulnerable to potential radicalisation and terrorism. Overall, the paper concludes that a climate terrorism assemblage provides a productive analytic frame to investigate the contested power relations of climate change-radicalisation-terrorism connections.     

PRACTICING THE CULTURAL GREEN ECONOMY: WHERE NOW FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIAL SCIENCE?

Debates concerning the development of the green economy necessarily focus on “upstream” issues that underpin the re‐structuring of national and regional economies through the lenses of financial, institutional and regulatory change. However, the growing interest in the cultural green economy requires a re‐scaling of debates surrounding the links that occur in complex socio‐technical systems, notably between individual consumers, social units and the architectures of the developing green economy. This necessitates a research and policy agenda that is attentive to both the complexities of such interactions (between structures, processes and practices) and the imperative to foster change in practices within wider society. This article explores the ways in which environmental social scientists have examined and evidenced these issues, arguing that two major barriers still exist for creating adequate understandings and opportunities for change. First, the overt focus on the individual consumer as a unit of measurement and political attention has stifled debate concerning the ways in which environmentally related social practices have developed in association with wider economic contexts. In this way, environmental social scientists have often failed to make the connections between individuals, practices and the economic system. Second, in adopting a largely individualistic perspective, environmental social scientists have tended to focus their attention on incrementalist and narrowly defined views of what ecological citizenship might look like and constitute in the green economy. The article therefore argues that environmental social scientists need to constructively engage in a new inter‐disciplinary dialogue about the role, purpose and ethics of citizen participation in developing and sustaining the green economy in an age of climate change and potential resource scarcity.     

要重视土地改革对乡村社会的深远影响——读《土地制度变动与中国乡村社会变革》有感

最近10年来,随着解决三农问题成为中国共产党和政府工作的重中之重,追溯和研究三农历史的论著也层出不穷,最近读了当代中国研究所王瑞芳研究员以考察新中国成立初期土地改革运动为中心写成的《土地制度变动与中国乡村社会变革》(社会科学文献出版社2010年版),感到作者运用历史唯物主义的基本原理和方法,通过透视生产关系的变革来研     

Sustained drought,vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

With climate change projections indicating a likely future increase in extreme weather phenomena, it is an urgent matter to assess the effect of drought on civil conflict. However, studies of this relationship so far provide inconclusive findings. One reason for this inconsistency is that existing research has not sufficiently taken into account the local vulnerability and coping capacity that condition the effect of drought. In particular, the exposure to sustained droughts undermines alternative coping mechanisms of individuals. Moreover, reliance on rainfed agriculture for income and food provision renders individuals particularly vulnerable to droughts. Based on these observations, I suggest that areas experiencing sustained droughts or depending on rainfed agriculture are more likely to see civil conflict following drought as individuals in these regions are more likely to partake in rebellion in order to redress economic grievances or to obtain food and income. Using novel high-resolution data on civil conflict events in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2008, this paper evaluates the relationship between sustained drought, rainfed agriculture and civil conflict violence at the subnational level. In line with the argument, areas with rainfed croplands see an increased risk of civil conflict violence following drought. There is also some support for the proposition that areas experiencing sustained droughts have a higher risk of conflict. The results are robust to a wide range of model specifications.     

REGIONAL TRAJECTORIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN CANADIAN MANUFACTURING

Techniques of production were measured for 18 manufacturing industries across 6 regions of Canada between 1961 and 1988. In any given year, production technology, measured by a pair of capital and labour input coefficients, varies markedly over space. The relative positions of regions in a two-dimensional technology-space appears consistent across industries. With industry-mix effects removed, multivariate analysis of variance confirms that regional differences in production techniques are significant. Further investigation reveals that spatial variations in techniques of production persist over time. These findings support the claims of evolutionary theorists, demonstrating that in Canadian manufacturing industries regions tend to move along distinct trajectories of technological change.
On a mesuré les techniques de production dans 18 industries manufacturières de 6 régions du Canada au cours de la période 1961-88. La technologie de production, mesurée par deux coefficients des entrées du capital et du travail, diffère considérablement d'une région à l'autre à une année donnée. Les positions relatives des régions par rapport aux deux dimensions espace-technologie se maintiennent dans toutes les industries. Si on écarte les effets de la composition industrielle, l'analyse de variance à plusieurs variables démontre qu'il existe d'importantes différences régionales en techniques de production. L'analyse complémentaire révèle que les variations spatiales des techniques de production persistent à travers le temps. Ces résultats confirment la position des théoriciens évolutionnistes à l'effet que dans les industries manufacturières canadiennes, les régions ont tendance à suivre des trajectoires distinctes de changements technologiques.     

RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PLAINS

This paper examines 20th-century environmental change in the subhumid southwestern Canadian Plains, specifically in relation to the dominant agricultural landscape and to the climate of the past millennium as reconstructed from proxy data. Anthropogenic landscape change in the last century has been dominated by the conversion of grasslands to ranchland and cropland. This has heightened landscape vulnerability to climatic fluctuations, especially drought. Instrumental climate records, extending back to the 1880s, highlight the variability of precipitation in this region. Proxy environmental records, derived from lake cores and tree-ring analysis, extend this picture into the last millennium and show that drought has been a recurring theme of the Prairie climate. Tree-ring records suggest that some droughts in the last millennium may have exceeded in severity any in the instrumental record. The sustainability of Prairie agriculture depends on adaptation to the amplitudes of climatic change and variability evident in these proxy records. Dans cet article nous examinons les changements environnementaux qui sont survenus pendant le 20^ème siècle dans les plaines canadiennes sèches du sud-ouest, spécifiquement par rapport au paysage agricole dominant et au climat du dernier millénaire qui a été déterminéà partir de données de procuration. La transformation des prairies en ranchland et cropland est le changement du paysage le plus important dont l'homme est responsable, pour le dernier siècle. À cause de ce changement, le paysage est plus vulnérable aux fluctuations climatiques - à la sécheresse en particulier. Les enregistrements instrumentaux de climat, qui reculent jusqu'aux années 1880, mettent en évidence la variabilité des précipitations dans cette région. Les enregistrements environnementaux de procuration, dérivés d'échantillons pris dans les lacs et de la dendroanalyse, étendent cette image dans le dernier millénaire et prouvent que le thème de la sécheresse est apparu souvent dans les analyses du climat du prairie. Les enregistrements de boucles d'arbre suggèrent que, dans le dernier millénaire il y avait des sécheresses qui étaient peut-être si sévères que les instruments n'ont pas pu les enregistrer. Si l'agriculture veut survivre comme entreprise dans les prairies, il faudra qu'elle s'adapte aux amplitudes de changement et de variabilité du climat qui ont été constatées dans les données de procuration.     

Who marries whom?: Ethnicity and marriage pairing patterns in Indonesia

This paper examines regional, ethnic-specific patterns and individual-level correlates in same ethnic marriages (endogamy) and ethnic intermarriages in Indonesia. With data from over 47 million couples in prevailing marriages from the full enumeration of the 2010 Census, we outline the provincial variations in endogamy against development indicators and an ethnic fractionalisation index. We compare the prevalence of endogamy for major ethnic groups, and use network plots to examine pairing patterns in ethnic intermarriage. We use multivariate analysis to summarise the relationships between the likelihood of endogamy and migration status, ethnic group size, age group, and education for individuals in two selected provinces: North Sumatra and Jakarta. There is evidence to support negative associations between endogamy rates and provincial development indicators. Endogamy rates vary across major ethnic groups, and as expected, are higher in relatively large ethnic groups. In Jakarta and North Sumatra, individuals in urban areas, with younger age, and higher level of education have lower likelihood of endogamy. We found a positive relationship between ethnic size and endogamy, but conflicting results on the association between lifetime migration and endogamy in both provinces. By studying ethnic pairing patterns, this research provides a unique window to understand the dynamics of development, social change, and social stratification in an ethnically diverse emerging democracy.     

基于离散程度的博物馆馆藏环境温湿度中长期评估方法

温湿度是评估博物馆馆藏环境的重要指标。在越来越多的博物馆对温湿度进行监测记录的情况下,需要基于"稳定适宜"的准则,探索一种科学的评估方法,为馆藏环境温湿度的调控治理提供依据。该方法以中长期的博物馆监控数据为基础,通过计算温湿度监控数据的离散度和离散系数,并结合箱线图分析数据的分布情况,对其"稳定适宜"程度进行综合量化评估。结合四川博物院2014年的温湿度监控数据的实例,验证了该方法的有效性。研究结果表明,采用基于离散程度的中长期温湿度数据评估方法,能够为下一步的馆藏环境调控治理提供依据,有助于针对性的改善博物馆文物保存环境。