论东汉党锢的缘起与党人失败原因

东汉末年的党锢之祸是中国历史上第一次大规模的党争,历来受到研究者的关注,然题中仍不乏剩义。本文主要考察党锢的缘起及党人集团失败的原因。笔者认为党人集团的失败绝非偶然,至少有三方面的原因值得总结。其一,把宦官作为败坏东汉政权唯一的罪魁祸首有失公允;其二,清流官员欲尽除宦官的计划得不到最高统治者的支持,且他们的过激言论招致皇帝的震怒;其三,党人集团中缺少雄才大略的领袖,在关键时刻优柔寡断,致使功败垂成。     

Prediction and its discontents: guidance for Australia from the debate over social science forecasting

The well-documented failure of many experts to predict many events of strategic importance—from 9/11 to the global financial crisis to the Arab Spring—has led to a fashionable belief amongst some academics and popular commentators that prediction is a ‘fool's errand’. Problems inherent in forecasting political events, such as cognitive biases, strategic interaction, complexity effects and various others, make this an attractive position. However, although a proper degree of humility is warranted about the ability to predict strategic events, this article argues that not making predictions at all is not an option. No genuinely workable policy advice could flow to Australian policy makers unless analysts are able, however roughly, to try to forecast the future. Moreover, with some hard, determined work, social scientists have recently produced work which promises to be able to foresee important events such as state failures and civil wars with reasonable accuracy. Experts should be encouraged to make, and should routinely be evaluated on, predictions about their area of expertise. Even failed predictions can be useful in pointing up gaps in knowledge and understanding which would otherwise have remained opaque.     

Experimental and Analytical Investigation on the Corner Failure in Masonry Buildings: Interaction between Rocking-Sliding and Horizontal Flexure

ABSTRACT

The failure mechanism of corners in masonry buildings has frequently been observed in seismic scenarios, but only a few works and no experimental investigations devoted to it are available in the literature. In this aritcle, the experimental behavior of a simple masonry corner is first analyzed, by simulating the seismic horizontal actions through a progressive tilting of the supporting base. Then, the conditions of the onset of two possible failure modes are analytically formulated: they are the rocking-sliding and the horizontal flexure mechanism. A three-dimensional macro-block model with frictional joints is used to analyze these mechanisms, while the crack patterns and the load factors are derived through the kinematic approach of the limit analysis. The evaluation of the in-plane frictional resistances involved by the rocking-sliding mechanism is performed by applying a reliable criterion previously proposed, while for the torsion strength involved in the horizontal flexure mechanism, simplified yield conditions are adopted and a possible criterion is also introduced to take into account the actual reduction of the contact surfaces. Last, the experimental findings are compared and critically interpreted in light of the analytical results and the influence of the main parameters on the prevailing mechanism is highlighted.     

Stigma and the doomed-to-fail school careers of young people from disadvantaged neighbourhoods

ABSTRACT

The paper contributes to ‘geographies of education’ (Holloway, S., and H. Jöns. 2012. “Geographies of Education and Learning.” Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 37 (4): 482–488), as it presents the typical school careers of students stigmatized in educational institutions because of their disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Drawing on qualitative research with male residents of one disadvantaged neighbourhood in ?ód? (Poland), I identify their typical careers as ‘doomed-to-fail school careers’. The paper has three aims. First, it highlights the significance of stigma-based spatially embedded school practices on the educational failure and low-paid employment of students from disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Second, it uncovers forms of school control over stigmatized students and the students’ resistance to these. Finally, I argue that Erving Goffman’s theory of stigma in human geography (Goffman, E. 1963. Stigma. Notes on Management of Spoiled Identity. Englewood Cliff, NJ: Prentice Hall) offers a unique language to describe and explain the spatially embedded educational experiences of marginalized students.     

Policy capacity in disruptive times

ABSTRACT

In considering the widely held view that we have experienced an era of qualitative decline in policy provision, this paper briefly reviews four questions that appear to underlie such a view. Have there been identifiable transitions in deliberative processes, political practices and policy capacity in recent decades (and if so, what were the catalysts)? Has the relationship between policy practitioners and expert providers of policy advice changed (and if so, how)? Have channels of communication between the political/policy community and the research community deteriorated (and if so, why)? Has the political appreciation of public concerns and the public understanding of policy imperatives diminished? We use these to frame the results of a workshop in which researchers, policy practitioners and service providers participated. Our objective is to identify systematically the origin of contemporary policy problems, foreshadowing four articles that illuminate instances of success and failure in disruptive times.