城市功能对经济增长影响的空间计量分析——以珠三角城市群为例

文章运用2003-2017年珠三角9市的相关数据,构建空间杜宾模型和城市地理系统分形模型,分析了城市功能对经济增长的影响.研究表明:①城市功能专业化基础上的城市间功能互补,或者说注重城市间功能互补的城市功能专业化对本地经济增长有显著的促进作用,对其他城市也有显著的溢出效应;②只追求功能专业化对本地经济增长有促进作用,但...     

包容性旅游增长的概念内涵、实现机制和政策建议

近年来包容性增长理念在国内外得到日益广泛的认同。本文分析了包容性增长和包容性旅游增长的概念与内涵,提出了以旅游系统为框架的包容性旅游增长实现机制,并对该机制进行了系统外部和内部两个层面的详细解析。以此为基础,本文提出加强产业融合、扩大旅游需求、加强旅游扶贫、优化旅游利益分配机制、提高旅游公共服务水平是包容性旅游增长政策的基本立足点。结合我国实际,本文提出应通过拓宽产业融合广度和提高其深度之政策来推动实现我国旅游业外部包容性增长。针对旅游业内部包容性增长,本文提出了四个方面的政策建议：出台全国性的“国民休闲计划”,大力发展国民旅游;加大针对贫困地区的旅游扶贫力度,创新旅游扶贫方式;发展社区利益型旅游业,优化旅游利益分配机制;强化旅游公共服务体系建设,建立多层次的旅游公共服务系统。     

北京中低收入社区育儿人群的服务设施需求研究

服务设施需求分析是建设社区生活圈和完整社区的基础。已有研究关注服务设施供给的空间配置或评价,对服务设施需求的研究并不多见,尤其缺少对育儿人群等细分人群的研究。本文以此为切入点,讨论在二孩政策和年轻人少子化观念影响下,社区应当给予育儿人群什么样的服务设施支持。基于2017年北京公平与包容调查问卷数据,本文采用有序多分类模型分析中低收入社区居民对教育、医疗等10类设施的需求偏好。结果显示育儿人群对各类设施的需求和访问频率都超出其他人群,且相关需求存在性别差异;二孩家庭对服务设施的依赖性强于独生子女家庭,且因子女处于不同年龄段的家庭需求也有所差异。最后,本文提出了育儿人群所需服务设施的分类体系,以期为精细化社区服务设施规划提供参考。     

我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系研究——基于1978-2007年东、中、西部、东北地区面板数据

本文选取1978-2007年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验及误差修正模型对我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系进行了检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,城市化是经济增长的长短期原因,但经济增长是城市化的长短期原因均无法得到证实;东部地区的城市化与经济增长的长短期均互为因果关系;对于中、西部、东北地区而言,城市化是经济增长的长期原因,但不是其短期原因,长短期内经济增长都不是城市化的原因。     

旅游业与我国经济增长关系的实证分析

旅游业与国民经济增长之间的关系一直是有关学者研究的对象,这也导致了对旅游业地位的不同认识。本文利用历史数据对改革开放以来中国居民旅游消费支出与经济增长之间的关系作出判断,认为我国旅游业与经济增长之间并不存在稳定的因果关系。文章对产生这种现象的原因进行了分析,并提出了相关政策建议。     

Suburbanization and sprawl in post-socialist Belgrade and Sofia

The goal of this research is to examine the processes of suburbanization and sprawl in two post-socialist capital cities in Southeast Europe – Belgrade, Serbia and Sofia, Bulgaria. Our analysis begins with a survey of relevant historical developments in the two cities, which illustrates the impact of major political, economic and social drivers on urban development processes and form. We follow this with an empirical study aimed at identifying contemporary features of peri-urban processes occurring in the two cities. Specifically, we explore spatial patterns, general population trends and changes in urban densities. Our study confirms earlier observations by other researchers that processes of suburbanization are occurring in Belgrade and Sofia. Yet this research goes further and emphasizes the specific combination of conditions inherited from the era of state socialism and the features of South-east European urban culture. Thus regarding the form of urban expansion, we observe relatively weak trends of sprawl with strong local specifics. On this basis, we discuss our empirical results with the objective of identifying the specifics of studied processes in Belgrade and Sofia as a grounds for the articulation of an appropriate policy framework.     

Inclusive growth from an urban perspective: a challenge for the metropolis of the twenty-first century

This paper addresses the study of inclusive growth from an urban perspective. It proposes to focus the relationship between urban economic growth and income distribution in cities in which manufacturing production and external demand play a central role. Opposed to the literature that considers economic growth leads to an increase in inequality in income distribution, we present some operative economic tools from Marshallian Industrial Districts theory and from urban economic theory with which to develop an economic strategy for inclusive urban growth, making possible to achieve simultaneously economic growth and improvements in income distribution. An interesting example of a metropolis with a dynamic of economic and employment growth compatible with a reduction in income inequality is provided by Barcelona. This metropolis disposes a Survey of living conditions and habits of the population since 1986 that allows an analysis in terms of inclusive urban growth.     

Architectural rumors: unrealized megaprojects in Baku,Azerbaijan and their politico-economic uses

This article examines the agency of unrealized megaprojects in bolstering economic activity, legitimizing political regimes, and expanding designer’s portfolios. It argues that such proposals serve as a form of “Architectural Rumor,” providing politico-economic agency despite ultimate project infeasibility. Specifically, it looks at two case studies of proposed yet unrealized island megaprojects in the city of Baku, Azerbaijan: the 2009 Zira Island Master Plan and the 2010 Khazar Islands Plan. Spectacular urban design and architecture have long served as catalysts for development, investment attraction, and real estate speculation. As cities compete with one another to lure capital and boost their global status, many design proposals have become increasingly expensive, ostentatious, and technologically sophisticated. The high-risk financial nature of grand urban design proposals and their frequent associations with displacement or environmental destruction suggests that the megaproject model is becoming flawed. At the same time, there remain advantages for clients and politicians to proposing designs that are more spectacular than feasible. Using a mixed-methods approach, four key arenas in which unrealized proposals circulate are described. The various benefits and detriments of such an approach to architectural commodification are also discussed, foregrounding the broader societal costs.     

多尺度下中国人口老龄化风险集群的时空格局——Flexible空间扫描计量方法的应用

运用Flexible空间扫描计量方法,对比分析了省、市和县域尺度上的老龄化风险集群的时空格局。发现：老龄化成为全国人口结构转型的主旋律,少子化成为新常态,老龄化区域非均衡加剧,并存多种区域模式;三种尺度识别出的风险集群都集中分布于东南半壁;集群的风险程度与地域范围随时间不断扩大,但集群间的风险差异趋于缩小。总体而言,尺度越小,识别出的集群分布越分散,定位越精确,风险越高,差异越大。针对不同地区的人口-经济发展情况,提出保障生育,发展养老产业,基本公共服务均等化,就地、近城镇化等的老龄化风险应对策略。     

中国旅游投资增长质量的时序动态变化与地区差异

旅游投资增长质量对旅游业高速发展和产业转型升级至关重要。利用1999-2014年中国旅游投资省际面板数据,从产出效率与运行过程两方面,系统分析了旅游投资增长质量的时序动态变化与地区差异。结果表明：①考察期内旅游投资增长产出效率提升明显,并处于中高水平。但东中西区域差异明显,中西部旅游投资增长效率低于东部地区,具有一定阶梯性。②旅游投资增长时序波动性较明显,呈现出时冷时热的变化态势,体现出总体稳定性欠佳。东中西区域的稳定性也较差,但自2011年后有所改善。③旅游投资增长协调性不好,表现为旅游投资增长滞后于旅游发展需求。旅游产品（项目）开发与相关基础设施建设,还无法满足快速增长的旅游新需求。这为提升旅游投资质量提供了新的参考与依据。