Testing Methods of Record Linkage on Swedish Censuses

Abstract.

Research benefits a great deal when different kinds of registers can be combined. Record linkage is an important tool for connecting sources to create longitudinal databases of individual data. In this article, researchers test and evaluate different methods of record linkage used when linking two censuses. By comparing the results of the census linkage with other continuous Swedish parish registers, they find that applying constructed name variables and household links considerably increases the success rate without the risk of introducing bias. Missing links are mainly related to name problems, and appear most frequently among children and when the family structure has changed between the censuses. Faulty links are very few and must be regarded as only a marginal problem for analysis. The study underlines the importance of adapting the linkage process to the special characteristics of the sources.     

Shooting in the Dark: Recovering the Jewish Farmers of an American Zion

Abstract

The authors argue that the publication of any new historical data series requires a formal estimate of its margins of error. We show how overall margins of error may be calculated for the standard forms of historical data series from information on the reliability of its components. The presentation of such margins of error should be transparent, allowing readers both to judge the estimate and to test the implications of applying different standards. An illustration is provided for Hoffmann's industrial output series for Britain, 1780–1831. The calculations emphasize the value of this approach to the recent debate on measuring growth rates during the British Industrial Revolution and suggest its merits more generally.     

西方人口史研究新进展述评

20世纪中叶以来 ,西方在人口史研究方面取得了巨大进展 ,还采用了新的研究方法。这些成果不仅提供了对近代人口普查前的各国人口数量和结构等基本状况的描述 ,而且增进了历史学对一些重大问题的理论探讨 ,拓宽了历史学的视野和领域。     

The periodontal disease status of the historical population of Assos

The science of anthropology obtains data on health, disease and death from ancient populations. Research on the skeletal remains of human teeth and surrounding tissues provides useful information on the evolutionary perspective of dental and periodontal diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and severity of periodontal diseases in the skeletal remains of 33 Assos inhabitants of the 4th century BC. Three age groups were constituted for the studied population. Periodontal disease status was determined based on the textural and architectural variations of the interdental septum and the extent of bone loss. It was found that the prevalence of periodontal diseases increased with age. The severity of periodontal bone loss also increased with age and the mean alveolar bone loss between age groups was statistically significant (P = 0.004). This analysis of the dental health of ancient populations provides insights into the aetiology, patterns and distribution of periodontitis, which has a very complex disease pathogenesis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Logistic增长模型在游客流量预测中的应用——以贵州省绥阳县为例

旅游开发要以市场为导向,以资源为基础,以产品为核心,以效益为目标。游客流量的准确预测对旅游资源的开发具有很重要的指导作用。现在游客流量预测已经有了一个比较成熟的方法系统,但这些方法大多针对于开发得比较成熟且具有一定的游客数据积累的景区。本文以贵州绥阳县双河溶洞国家地质公园为例,尝试将种群增长的Logistic曲线与景区的环境容量相结合的方法,来预测其未来一定时段的游客流量,得到了较为满意的结果,对国内其它类似旅游景区开发具有借鉴意义。     

清代西辽河流域人口增长及其对环境的影响

西辽河流域是国家实施西部大开发战略的重点地区之一,属于典型的生态敏感区和生态脆弱区,研究流域人口变化及其对环境的影响是寻求区域人地关系和谐发展的必由之路。本文考察了清代260余年间西辽河流域蒙古族和汉族人口的变化,并指出正是由于清政府不能从长远的观点制定合理的开发政策,使人口增长过快,增强了人口对资源的压力,造成了植被的破坏、野生动物的锐减和土地退化与水土流失的出现。因此,政府在制定开发政策时,要从长远的观点出发,处理好产业发展与保护环境的关系。     

东北地区人地关系百年变迁研究——人口、城市与交通发展

本文对东北地区百年来人口、城市、交通发展与人地关系变迁规律进行了研究。首先根据东北地区人地关系发展的性质把东北百年划分为3个发展阶段,然后对东北地区各个历史阶段的人口、城市与交通发展的历史现状进行了分析,最后揭示了人口、城市、交通之间及其与环境之间相互作用的机制,指出四者之间相互影响、相互渗透,组合为一个整体向前发展,并且这种发展受经济因素与政治因素的共同影响,是外力和内力双重作用的结果,共同成为影响东北地区人地关系的重要因素。     

中国城市流动人口的空间结构

利用中国公安部1996年流动人口统计数据,采用空间统计分析方法和断裂点法,对中国城市流动人口的空间结构进行研究发现,中国城市流动人口主要集中在沿海地带,而且客观存在着三大城市流动人口圈:①京津连流动人口圈。为中国第三大的城市流动人口圈,具有性别比高、来自圈外的流动人口比重大、以亲缘、地缘为纽带聚居等特点。②沪宁杭流动人口圈。为中国第二大的城市流动人口圈,具有来自省内的流动人口比重高、暂住时间差距大等特点。③广深厦流动人口圈。为中国最大的城市流动人口圈,具有女性流动人口比重高、来自外省的流动人口比重大等特点。     

大城市外围地区流动人口结构及其城镇建设用地使用特征研究——以深圳市平湖镇为例

文章以深圳市平湖镇为例,通过实地考察和典型调查,对大城市外围地区流动人口的结构及其城镇建设用地使用特征进行研究。发现平湖的流动人口结构较为简单,大多数是来自我国西南落后地区青壮年农村剩余劳动力,并且以务工和经商为主。由于其从业特征的差异,务工和经商人员分别集中在城镇工业区和商业区内,人口分布密度较高,人均建设用地面积严重偏低。文章认为在大城市外围地区的城市规划中必须加强对流动人口的用地需求研究,以解决大规模的流动人口与相对紧缺的城镇用地之间的矛盾,并且进一步做了平湖流动人口用地需求分析,提出其规划调整建议。     

首府集中度和西部城市化模式探索

城市首位度是最早提出来对城市规模状况的指标描述,但随着经济的发展,处于第二位城市的人口数量的增加,首位度日益无法得力地描述城市体系的特征状况,更无法表述出地区人口在首府城市的集中程度,为此本文提出了城市首府集中度的概念,将首府集中度划分为不同的等级层次。对比中国与世界平均及中、俄间的首府度分布曲线,从而得出结论:中国大城市的发展潜力仍然很大,应进一步扩展和完善大城市。西部地区地广人稀,对比分析俄罗斯和西部的首府度状况,相应地提出西部开发模式。