UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.     

Ultramodern contraception

The measured success of family planning policy in the developing world rests on increases in the ‘modern’ methods of contraception. By extension, ‘traditional’ methods of contraception are equated with traditional mentalities and insufficient motivation to control fertility. But contraceptive use differentials in India suggest that in fact it is the most ‘modern’ women (those with a college education and living in urban areas) who are the most likely to use these traditional methods of birth control and to use them very efficiently as well. The paper locates this counter-intuitive preference among urban, educated women in what may be called ‘ultramodern’ attitudes to the body and to modern medicine and tries to situate such modernization in the contemporary developmental paradigm. Finally, the paper implies that population policy and contraceptive research may be unduly attributing contraceptive ineffectiveness to the users of traditional birth control today.     

Practical surveying in schools

Analysis of detailed geomorphological mapping enables a sequence of glacial events to be established. An ice sheet whose source was to the west of the area of study is shown, by the suites of fluvioglacial landforms produced, to have down‐wasted in situ; meltwaters escaped beneath or through the ice, moving uphill across certain areas. Finally, a sub‐aerial drainage system was established and outwash terraces were spread down valley.     

长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数（CAI）,并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明：①长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的“中心-边缘”分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。②长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。     

基于综合可达性的北京城市增长模拟与管控模式优化

社会经济活动的空间重构与交通设施配置息息相关,可达性成为优化城市空间结构,调控城市空间开发的重要手段。在以矢栅一体化的综合可达性测度并构建城市增长模型的基础上,对北京城市增长进行了成功模拟,透视了基于综合可达性导向发展模式的基本特征与主要问题,并提出了基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式优化方案。研究发现：①城市增长密集发生在建成区周围可达性优越的区域,随着与城市中心的距离增加,城市增长的概率降低,反映了北京单中心的城市发展模式;②受城市规划与交通设施规划失调影响,可达性提升程度越大的区域并不一定带来更高的城市增长开发概率,严重削弱了可达性对城市增长的引导作用;③基于综合可达性的城市增长调控模式的优化方案,要以交通设施规划为基础,并合理耦合空间规划,才能更为有效地引导城市空间良性增长并预防规划失效。基于综合可达性的城市增长模型建立与调控模式优化方案的提出,对于确立与提升交通引导城市增长的基础性地位,优化城市空间结构具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

进化之调律:斯宾塞与清末的种群竞争论述

斯宾塞学说构成清末种群进化和竞争论述的主要外在资源。斯宾塞以进化的哲学思维来缀合威廉·卡彭特、查尔斯·赖尔所代表的动物生理学和生物历史知识,回应马尔萨斯的人口论。19世纪50年代以来在中国译介和流行的正是卡彭特所代表的生理学著述片段或与其相似的种群差别认知。知识界对斯宾塞的翻译,意味着中国在戊戌时期发生了类似的理论缀合过程。清末知识人以种分贵贱、黄白同为贵种调整了斯宾塞的种群进化位阶表述,抵制欧洲人歧视东亚黄种之心。同时,他们却强化了贵贱种之间的等级关系,营造"退化""灭种"的焦虑意识和压迫感,警告需积极参与生存竞争来提升种群的心智和自律性,从而为政治变革酝酿社会气氛。     

人力资本结构、物质资本与经济增长

人力资本作为经济增长的一个重要因素,除了要考虑其总量与经济增长的关系外,还要考虑人力资本的结构对经济增长的影响。本文分析了我国不同层次的人力资本对经济增长的影响,并根据计量的结果和我国东、中、西部地区现有的人力资本结构情况,对各地区的人力资本培养战略和产业结构调整的方向给出了相应的政策、建议。     

The Growth Cone as Seen Through Cajal's Original Histological Preparations and Publications

Abstract

Multiple sclerosis (MS) was first presented in a clinical setting in 1838. In this paper the presentation and treatment of a transient hemiparesis in a drummer in 1789 is discussed. This may have been an early case of MS and presents evidence against the theory that MS is an infectious disease beginning in the 19th century.     

Railways as a Factor of Change in the Distribution of Population in Spain, 1900–1970

Abstract

The central focus of this work is to test a new methodology to measure the impact of the railway on the distribution of population, in this case in Spain. To achieve this, it was necessary to previously integrate data relating to population and railway lines into a geographical information system. The result was a spatial database that includes population data from homogeneous census series obtained for the municipal scale and the evolution of the railway network in service at corresponding points in time. This allowed the authors to apply spatial-temporal analysis. By so doing, this work constitutes an analysis of a new methodology, as they used exploratory spatial data analysis and geographically weighted regression to detect spatial patterns and estimate the influence of the railway and distance from the coast on population change. The results obtained show that the influence of the railway was very pronounced in some areas, while in others it was just one of the factors that could explain major changes in population distribution.     

Evolution of the Territorial Coverage of the Railway Network and its Influence on Population Growth: The Case of England and Wales, 1871–1931

Abstract

The introduction of the railway network brought with it an unprecedented improvement in accessibility. In this work, the authors analyze the evolution of the territorial coverage of the railway network and its influence on the uneven distribution of population. To carry out this research, they used comparable data on total population obtained from census records relating to civil parishes of England and Wales, taken at 10-year intervals from 1871. The hypothesis that they wished to test was that good access to a railway station was related to significant increases in population. This exercise provides a better understanding of regional variations in population growth and allows the authors to identify current differences between urban and rural areas that have resulted from their historical evolution.