UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.     

Ultramodern contraception

The measured success of family planning policy in the developing world rests on increases in the ‘modern’ methods of contraception. By extension, ‘traditional’ methods of contraception are equated with traditional mentalities and insufficient motivation to control fertility. But contraceptive use differentials in India suggest that in fact it is the most ‘modern’ women (those with a college education and living in urban areas) who are the most likely to use these traditional methods of birth control and to use them very efficiently as well. The paper locates this counter-intuitive preference among urban, educated women in what may be called ‘ultramodern’ attitudes to the body and to modern medicine and tries to situate such modernization in the contemporary developmental paradigm. Finally, the paper implies that population policy and contraceptive research may be unduly attributing contraceptive ineffectiveness to the users of traditional birth control today.     

长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数（CAI）,并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明：①长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的“中心-边缘”分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。②长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。     

清代中期直隶灾后跨省赈粮调度的定量重建与特征分析

本文基于历史文献资料,提取清代中期(1723-1850)直隶灾后朝廷组织的跨省赈粮调度相关记载,对逐年赈粮数量进行定量重建。结合同期水旱灾害强度,对其反映的政府救灾力度的总体变化趋势及时空分布特征进行分析,并进一步讨论其影响因素。结果显示,赈粮调度在雍正朝还并非常规赈灾措施,至乾隆朝成为常态,数量上达到顶峰,至嘉道时期则显著衰落;在空间上更偏重于直隶中部的近畿一带,南部则相对易被忽视。当其兴盛之时,在直隶灾后赈济中发挥的作用不可替代,其演变过程在一定程度上既是清王朝兴衰历程的缩影,亦受到各方面因素(如皇帝意志、灾害强度、区位条件、仓储状况、荒政效率等)的综合作用。从中总结的历史经验教训,也可作为当前防灾实践的参考。     

进化之调律:斯宾塞与清末的种群竞争论述

斯宾塞学说构成清末种群进化和竞争论述的主要外在资源。斯宾塞以进化的哲学思维来缀合威廉·卡彭特、查尔斯·赖尔所代表的动物生理学和生物历史知识,回应马尔萨斯的人口论。19世纪50年代以来在中国译介和流行的正是卡彭特所代表的生理学著述片段或与其相似的种群差别认知。知识界对斯宾塞的翻译,意味着中国在戊戌时期发生了类似的理论缀合过程。清末知识人以种分贵贱、黄白同为贵种调整了斯宾塞的种群进化位阶表述,抵制欧洲人歧视东亚黄种之心。同时,他们却强化了贵贱种之间的等级关系,营造"退化""灭种"的焦虑意识和压迫感,警告需积极参与生存竞争来提升种群的心智和自律性,从而为政治变革酝酿社会气氛。     

土默特平原聚落分布形态演变及其驱动因素分析(1934—2019)

选取土默特平原1934、1982和2019年的聚落人口数据,运用GIS空间分析法,定性与定量结合分析研究区聚落分布形态演变及其驱动因素,结果表明,1934—2019年土默特平原以小聚落为主,大规模聚落数量和比例逐年增加,人口等级结构由“扁平”向“长高”金字塔形转变。聚落空间分布整体呈现集聚分布特征,大规模聚落集聚性不显著,其他规模的聚落分布模式由随机向集聚转变,研究区人口极化现象显著;聚落空间分布非均衡发展趋势明显,呈现由极核式向点轴式演变的迹象;聚落网络联系的空间近邻效应显著,人口规模较大的中心城区成为强联系节点。地形、河流、交通是研究区聚落分布形态演变的主要驱动因素,聚落低海拔、邻河流、邻干道、邻城镇的指向性强。该研究便于厘清土默特平原近百年聚落分布形态的演变脉络,为当地聚落的空间布局优化与调控提供一定参考价值。     

Railways as a Factor of Change in the Distribution of Population in Spain, 1900–1970

Abstract

The central focus of this work is to test a new methodology to measure the impact of the railway on the distribution of population, in this case in Spain. To achieve this, it was necessary to previously integrate data relating to population and railway lines into a geographical information system. The result was a spatial database that includes population data from homogeneous census series obtained for the municipal scale and the evolution of the railway network in service at corresponding points in time. This allowed the authors to apply spatial-temporal analysis. By so doing, this work constitutes an analysis of a new methodology, as they used exploratory spatial data analysis and geographically weighted regression to detect spatial patterns and estimate the influence of the railway and distance from the coast on population change. The results obtained show that the influence of the railway was very pronounced in some areas, while in others it was just one of the factors that could explain major changes in population distribution.     

Evolution of the Territorial Coverage of the Railway Network and its Influence on Population Growth: The Case of England and Wales, 1871–1931

Abstract

The introduction of the railway network brought with it an unprecedented improvement in accessibility. In this work, the authors analyze the evolution of the territorial coverage of the railway network and its influence on the uneven distribution of population. To carry out this research, they used comparable data on total population obtained from census records relating to civil parishes of England and Wales, taken at 10-year intervals from 1871. The hypothesis that they wished to test was that good access to a railway station was related to significant increases in population. This exercise provides a better understanding of regional variations in population growth and allows the authors to identify current differences between urban and rural areas that have resulted from their historical evolution.     

Testing Methods of Record Linkage on Swedish Censuses

Abstract.

Research benefits a great deal when different kinds of registers can be combined. Record linkage is an important tool for connecting sources to create longitudinal databases of individual data. In this article, researchers test and evaluate different methods of record linkage used when linking two censuses. By comparing the results of the census linkage with other continuous Swedish parish registers, they find that applying constructed name variables and household links considerably increases the success rate without the risk of introducing bias. Missing links are mainly related to name problems, and appear most frequently among children and when the family structure has changed between the censuses. Faulty links are very few and must be regarded as only a marginal problem for analysis. The study underlines the importance of adapting the linkage process to the special characteristics of the sources.     

Spatial–temporal distribution and geographic context of Neolithic cultural sites in the Hanjiang River Basin,Southern Shaanxi,China

Understanding how to live successfully within our environment is among the most pressing challenges facing contemporary society. This paper probes the problem based on comparative analysis and discusses the relationship between the spatial–temporal distribution of the Neolithic cultural sites and the geographic context in the Hanjiang River Basin in the south of Shaanxi Province, China. Archaeological studies have identified 175 Neolithic cultural sites in the study area, with a sequence of Laoguantai (¹⁴C age 8–7 ka BP), Yangshao (¹⁴C age 7–5 ka BP) and the late period of the Neolithic Age (¹⁴C age 5–4 ka BP). The total number of archaeological sites, the distribution area and the density all showed an early ascending and later descending trend, but the proportion of the number of archaeological sites in the study area to the corresponding value of the entire Shaanxi Province declined sharply. Spatially, these sites were concentrated on the terraces of the Hanjiang River and its main tributaries with an altitude of 400–800 m. Multiple data were integrated to clarify the critical effects of tectonic and geomorphologic conditions on the distribution of the Neolithic sites. Further comparisons revealed the correlation of Holocene climate change and environmental evolution with the Neolithic cultural succession in the study area that ameliorated conditions to generally promote the development of the primitive culture while degeneration coincided with the culture's transition or interruption. The discussion on the origin of the primitive culture and the temporal–spatial distribution corresponding to the regional culture differentiation sheds light on the complex and dynamic human–nature interaction system during the Neolithic Age, thus emphasising the wider field-based investigation and high-resolution reconstruction works of the palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironment in the future.