Linking Scottish vital event records using family groups

Abstract

The reconstitution of populations through linkage of historical records is a powerful approach to generate longitudinal historical microdata resources of interest to researchers in various fields. Here we consider automated linking of the vital events recorded in the civil registers of birth, death and marriage compiled in Scotland, to bring together the various records associated with the demographic events in the life course of each individual in the population. From the histories, the genealogical structure of the population can then be built up. Rather than apply standard linkage techniques to link the individuals on the available certificates, we explore an alternative approach, inspired by the family reconstitution techniques adopted by historical demographers, in which the births of siblings are first linked to form family groups, after which intergenerational links between families can be established. We report a small-scale evaluation of this approach, using two district-level data sets from Scotland in the late nineteenth century, for which sibling links have already been created by demographers. We show that quality measures of up to 83% can be achieved on these data sets (using F-Measure, a combination of precision and recall). In the future, we intend to compare the results with a standard linkage approach and to investigate how these various methods may be used in a project which aims to link the entire Scottish population from 1856 to 1973.     

Stochastic process and archaeological mechanism in spatial analysis

Statistical techniques for the study of spatial patterns (“spatial analysis”) are reviewed, and their foundations are examined so that archaeologists can more readily judge how appropriate they are for dealing with particular problems. The concept of “association” is seen as crucial to this question, and some archaeological interpretations of it are critically examined. The potential usefulness of various techniques is discussed. Details of the simpler techniques are given in an Appendix.     

Stone age predation on large African bovids

Crown height measurements are used to establish age distributions for several species of larger bovids represented in faunal samples from the Middle Stone Age (earlier Upper Pleistocene) deposits of the Klasies River Mouth Caves and the Later Stone Age (later Upper Pleistocene/Holocene) deposits of Nelson Bay Cave, South Africa. There are no obvious differences between the sites in the age distributions of the species they share, but there are significant differences in age distributions among species. Two basic patterns are apparent. In the first, characterizing the blue antelope (Hippotragus leucophaeus), roan antelope (Hippotragus equinus), Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer), and giant buffalo (Pelorovis antiquus), the archaeological samples contain numerous very young animals and relatively few prime-age adults. At least in the buffalo samples, there is also a fair representation of old adults. In the second pattern, characterizing the bastard hartebeest (Damaliscus dorcas or D. niro) and especially of the eland (Taurotragus oryx), prime adults are far more prominent relative to younger and older age groups. The first pattern is similar to the natural pattern of attritional mortality that probably characterizes all healthy, stable populations of free-ranging large ungulates, while the second is more reminiscent of the age structure of live herds. The first pattern may reflect hunting focused on individual animals, particularly those whose age made them most vulnerable, while the second may reflect the susceptibility of certain species to driving, so that whole groups could be killed in traps in which differences in age had no meaning.     

The person‐years construct: ageing and the prevalence of health related phenomena from skeletal samples

Age has the ability to confound prevalence data. Yet, the effects of length of exposure and age‐structure on such prevalence data are seldom directly measured in osteological studies. Here we describe a simple method that addresses both issues through the use of person‐years, and treatment of data in the case of rare events as Poisson counts. We advocate use of person‐years as a denominator when comparing skeletal data that involves the cumulative insults of ageing (e.g. fractures, dental caries, and other chronic diseases such as osteoarthritis). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enamel hypoplasia in Danish and Lithuanian Late Medieval/Early Modern samples: a possible reflection of child morbidity and mortality patterns

Numerous studies and various interpretations of the prevalence of linear enamel hypoplasias (LEH) based on populations living in different cultural and economic conditions are causing some confusion and raising doubts about whether or not such LEH are reliable indicators of life conditions. An analysis of LEH prevalence patterns was performed on the adults of three populations: Tirup—a Danish Medieval rural population of the 12–14th centuries (131 individuals), Subačiaus str. in Vilnius—a Lithuanian Late Medieval urban population of the 16–17th centuries (88 individuals), and the aristocracy—a Lithuanian pooled sample population from several churches of the 15–18th centuries (66 individuals). Statistical testing of the influence of population affinity, sex and age at death was also performed. Since the same investigator scored all the samples, possible inter‐observer error bias was minimized. In all the populations, LEH formation ages were similar. Statistically significant sex differences were found only in the aristocratic sample (with higher male frequency). It was found that the town population was characterized by the highest frequency of affected individuals, with the highest severity and highest number of stress episodes per individual. A reliable relationship with age at death was found only in the town sample: individuals with more numerous and more marked LEH had shorter life expectancies in adulthood. Different “most vulnerable years” for subsequent life expectancies were noted for different populations. A tentative explanation of these differences could be the pooled effect of differential morbidity and mortality. It seems that the rural population experienced the highest morbidity and nutrition deficiency as well as the highest child mortality whereas, in the urban sample, high morbidity was accompanied by a lower child mortality. Both lower morbidity and mortality seem to be characteristic for the aristocracy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shifts Along a Spectrum: A Longitudinal Study of the Western Eurasian Realized Climate Niche

ABSTRACT

Climate niches that modern humans and earlier hominin ancestors occupied have changed dramatically over time, but the extent of those changes has gone largely undocumented. This study investigates the manner in which the realised hominin climate niche has expanded, contracted, or stayed stationary across four time periods (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, and 1950–2000) in Western Eurasia. Using spatially gridded general circulation model data and site locations this study examines climate variables from archaeological sites and current Western Eurasian cities to describe both the regional Western Eurasian fundamental and realised climate niches. Changes between the three prehistoric periods and modern-day time period are analysed by calculating each realised niche breadth, overlap, position, and variance. Results indicate that as global temperatures cooled from the Last Interglacial to Last Glacial Maximum, populations expanded their climate niche breadth beyond that of earlier Neanderthal groups, shifting toward regions with less seasonal variation. Conversely, Mid-Holocene humans, who saw the proliferation of both agriculture and population, contracted their realised climate niche space. The contraction and expansion of realised climate niche space illustrates how hominins have evolved the capacity to shift their niche through changes to their subsistence strategy and adaptations to overall climatic conditions.