黄宗智“过密化”理论中的事实判定、逻辑分析与模式建构问题——以《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》为中心

黄宗智的“过密化”理论自其《长江三角洲小农家庭与乡村发展》于20世纪90年代初出版之后一直在国内外史学界影响广泛,它认为明清以来的人口增长导致了长江三角洲植棉等经济行业的单位工作日劳动报酬的递减。鉴于史学界至今未有人从该书内部详细分析这一理论的实际论证过程,本文以此为切入点,指出它存在：一,植棉经济发韧于明代等诸多事实判定疏误或不当之处;二,抽样数据的数量严重不足等统计数据问题;三,植棉等经济行业的单位工作日劳动报酬因其单位产出价格的巨幅变动而无法简单比较等逻辑分析方面的问题。据此,本文认为该书没能有效证明过密化理论符合明清时期长江三角洲的历史发展事实。     

Biopower, genetics and livestock breeding: (re)constituting animal populations and heterogeneous biosocial collectivities

Genetic techniques have become increasingly prevalent in livestock breeding, associated with new types of knowledge-practice and changes in the institutional and geographical relationships related to animal husbandry. This paper examines the value of Foucault's concept of 'biopower' to theorising livestock breeding and the implications of the rise of genetic knowledge-practices in agriculture, developing the concept to apply to nonhuman animals and to situations where humans and nonhuman animals are co-constituted through particular knowledge-practices and corporeal meetings. It focuses on the idea of 'population' as a central component of biopower, and relates this to conceptualisations of biosocial collectivity. Reacting to the inherent humanism of Foucault's outlining of biopower, the paper argues for its relevance in relation to nonhuman populations, and for heterogeneous conceptualisations of biosocial collectivity. Drawing on research with UK beef cattle and sheep breed societies, the paper explores how, in practice, populations are constructed in relation to the production of particular sorts of truths concerning, and particular modes of intervention in, the lives of nonhuman animals. It explores how heterogeneous biosocial collectivities are constituted around these interventions. The emergence of genetic techniques is shown to transform the processes constituting populations and heterogeneous biosocial collectivities, and this is discussed in terms of a new inflection of agricultural biopower associated with novel interventions in the lives of livestock animals.     

十六国北朝侨州郡县与侨流人口研究引论

十六国北朝特别是十六国,频繁而大规模的内部人口流动,是由胡族统治者实施的,并以强制迁移性质为主,强制迁移的目的,是以之为兵、用之耕耘。这样的移民状况加上其他复杂因素,决定了长期、普遍、广泛设置于东晋南朝的侨州郡县,在十六国北朝境内,总体上说,是不长期、不普遍、不广泛的。十六国北朝特别是十六国的多数侨州郡县,既无土地也无人民。如十六国的侨置,多与"虚设"无异;至于北朝的侨置,则不外以下几种情形:因招抚或安置流民而置,为安置特殊性质的移民而设,备职方而立,务广虚名,以及承东晋南朝之侨置而不废者。十六国北朝侨州郡县与侨流人口的考证与研究,既要具备与东晋南朝进行比照的观点,其研究难度也较之东晋南朝为更大。     

2000—2009年广东省入境游客时空分布格局及其变化研究

依据2000—2009年广东省入境旅游的相关数据,从时间序列和空间尺度两个方面对广东省入境游客的年际变化、时间分布、空间集聚性和空间格局演变进行分析。结果表明:(1)除个别地级市外,广东省大部分地级市入境游客到访率年际变化稳定,年际集中指数较小,时间分布均匀;(2)入境游客空间分布地区差异,呈明显的集中型格局,主要集中于珠三角地区,且有进一步向其集中的态势;(3)入境游客空间分布市域差异,呈现从以广州、深圳为双中心,向四周辐散的"中心双核辐射式结构"到以深圳、广州、珠海、东莞以及惠州为多中心,向四周辐散的"中心多核辐射式结构"过度趋势,空间集聚性指数下降,入境游客空间分布趋于分散均匀,市域差异有缩小的趋势。     

20世纪上半叶河南烟草生产及其运销格局初探

20世纪上半叶,烟草是河南经济作物的一大特色。期间,河南烟草生产迅速发展,形成了烟草种植区域化、专业化的生产模式,并成为全国三大烤烟产区之一,一定程度上改变了河南农业单一的种植结构;同时,河南烟草生产的商品化程度不断提高,不仅满足了国内外卷烟加工工业的市场需求,而且还扩展了河南农村市场的发展空间;在此基础上,烟草集散市场的网络体系初步形成,烟草运销格局也因铁路运输方式的出现而发生重大变化。近代河南烟草的产销不仅提高了农民的生活水平,增强了农民的市场意识,且刺激了河南金融业的发展,并推动了豫中城镇的近代化进程,对河南乃至华北农村的近代社会转型产生了较为深远的影响。     

20世纪50年代上海新公私合营企业的工资改革

1956年,全行业公私合营后不久,鉴于建立统一的政治体制及与计划经济体制相适应的新工资制度的需要,国家开始在新公私合营企业中实行工资改革。上海新合营企业的工资改革与全国各地一样正式开始于1956年9月,但由于情况复杂,历经准备试点及全面推开等阶段,直到1957年10月才基本结束。其中工资改革的集中统一领导,工资水平与工资增长指标,新工资等级,变相工资、计件工资、保留工资等问题成为工资改革中最重要的内容。新合营企业工资改革的完成,标志着与计划经济体制相适应的统一的企业工资制度开始全面确立,在收入分配环节上,基本完成了对新合营企业从产权到治理结构、再到分配制度的崭新的企业制度安排。     

Restructuring of Beijing's Social Space

Four China-, U.S.-, and UK-based senior specialists on the urban geography of Beijing team up to present the results of their investigation of the change in the city's social landscape on the basis of restricted subdistrict-level data covering the period from 1982 to 2000. Adopting a factor ecology approach, the authors seek to identify the extent to which factors that shape urban social landscapes in Western countries have played a role in Beijing during a period of economic transition (e.g., from administrative toward market allocation of housing). Similarly, they investigate the relative strength of processes of social differentiation vis-à-vis mixing accruing from the restructuring of Beijing's physical space (e.g., housing cost differentiation and accelerated in-migration that lead to the emergence of concentrated areas inhabited by migrants and/or minorities, and of relatively low density suburbs) revealed by the 2000 Census. The paper includes a section on developments since 2000, citing data (through 2006) on population, scarcity of affordable housing, traffic congestion, and industrial and residential relocation, relating in part to the forthcoming Olympic Games in 2008. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: I31, O15, O18, P20. 6 figures, 7 tables, 93 references.     

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or ‘Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant’

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.     

Health prospects of older persons in Thailand: the role of education

ABSTRACT

Thailand’s population is aging rapidly and the number of older adults suffering from health limitations is expected to increase. Making use of several rounds of the Survey of Older Persons, we look at the education-specific prevalences of three health indicators over time and find a positive education gradient for difficulties with ADLs and poor self-rated health, but not for functional limitations. Combining these age-, sex- and education-specific prevalences for each indicator with population projections up to 2050, we see a lower projected number of persons with difficulties with ADLs or bad health as compared to an approach when we only account for differences by age and sex. Still, irrespective of the approach taken, we project a significant increase in the number of persons 50+ that have at least one ADL difficulty, at least one functional limitation or suffer from poor health. Our results provide estimates for future care needs and illustrate the possibly preventive effect of education.     

UN Population Division's Methodology in Preparing Base Population for Projections: Case study for India

Preparation of the base population plays a substantial role in the accuracy of projections. This paper reviews analytical strategies involved in the preparation of the UN World Population Prospects to reconcile existing discrepancies between data sources and derive robust estimates of population counts, distribution, and demographic changes. The case study of India is used to illustrate the challenges and benefits of using a cohort-component population projection approach in reconstructing its population between 1950 and 2010, including the preparation of bias-free population counts and distributions by age and sex; estimation of consistent fertility and mortality trends; and integration of all demographic components for obtaining a reliable base population for projections.