A third road to the past? Historical scholarship in the age of big data

Is a third passage to the past possible, beyond Elton's and Fogel's two roads of narrative history and scientific/quantitative history? One that would combine narrative history's focus on the event, on individuals and their actions, at a particular time and place, to scientific/quantitative history's emphasis on explicit behavioral models based on social-science theories? That is the question this article addresses. It illustrates a computer-assisted methodology for the study of narrative—quantitative narrative analysis (QNA)—that does just that. Based on the 5 Ws + H of narrative—Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How—QNA quantifies events without losing the event itself, without losing people behind numbers, diachronic time behind synchronic statistical coefficients. When used in conjunction with dynamic and interactive data visualization tools (and new natural language processing tools), QNA may provide a third unforeseen road to the past.     

The Mediation and Remediation of Disaster: Hurricanes Katrina and Felix in/and the New Media Environment

Hurricanes Katrina and Felix made landfall in 2005 and 2007 on the Gulf Coast of the US and the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua respectively. Despite many economic, political and cultural differences between these two sites, they share a number of interesting similarities. Their inhabitants are subject to similar modes of racialized Othering and internal colonialism, and both places have vital links with the transnational cultural consciousness that Gilroy referred to as the Black Atlantic. Katrina and Felix also occurred at a time when centralized forms of media are increasingly perceived to be in crisis. This crisis is creating new spaces for the development of alternative ways of knowing, watching and making media. This paper draws on recent literature on decolonization by Mignolo, Escobar, Quijano and others to explore the prospects for decolonizing energies within the new media environment and a context of devastation wrought by neoliberalism and disaster. This research examines disasters in/and the new media environment, and suggests that activists should understand the distinctions between mainstream (or corporate) and alternative media, between top‐down and grassroots media, and between “old” and “new” media, in relational and non‐categorical rather than absolute terms. These media realms should be engaged from an awareness of how they interact with and impact upon one another. This research also suggests that disasters must be understood as ongoing and open‐ended events embedded within historical, social, cultural, economic and political processes and systems. Media, policymaking and emergency management practices that are informed by an awareness of this complex embedding, and which are therefore able to take a long‐term view of the unfolding of disasters, will be best equipped to engage effectively, and in democratically responsive ways, with disasters and in particular with the needs of those populations most vulnerable to their impacts.     

Queering disasters: on the need to account for LGBTI experiences in natural disaster contexts

This article seeks a queering of research and policy in relation to natural disasters, their human impacts, management and response. The human impacts of natural disasters vary across different social groups. We contend that one group largely absent from scholarly and policy agendas is sexual and gender minorities, or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender/transsexual and intersex (LGBTI) populations. To demonstrate that these minorities have particular experiences that need to be addressed, we critically review five case studies that comprise the limited scholarly and policy research on LGBTI populations in disasters to date. Building on this, we offer some specific ways forward for queer disaster research that accounts for the vulnerabilities, needs and resilient capacities of LGBTI populations. In doing so, we recognise and urge researchers, policy-makers and aid agencies to acknowledge that LGBTI populations are not homogeneous and have different needs wrought by intersections of socio-economic resources, gender, race/ethnicity, age and regional or national location.     

Bushfires,Human Health Economics,and Pyrogeography

Bushfires (landscape fires) are a key Earth system process that affects humans and our societies and economies. In a recent article, we explored the coupling of humans to landscape fire through the lens of human health impacts of bushfire smoke. We noted that such an approach demands recognition of the indirect impacts and costs of bushfires that cannot be captured by simplistic proxies such as deaths directly attributable to a fire front. Evaluation of direct and indirect economic costs of bushfire disasters, and bushfire fire management remains a poorly developed research frontier that demands collaboration of expertise from a broad cross‐section of fields that often have limited experience of collaborating together. The need for such synthetic thinking about fire's place on Earth has spawned the discipline of pyrogeography.     

改革以前的中国共产党与自然科学基础理论研究

毛泽东是中国共产党科技思想发展的奠基者和探索者。他认为,科学技术是认识自然、改造自然、争取自由的思想武装;是推动生产力发展的革命力量;是经济和社会发展的重要动力;是社会主义本质的内在要求;是实行社会主义现代化的关键因素;是发挥社会主义制度优越性、赶超世界先进水平的重要保证。发展科学技术,要坚持跨越式发展和重视基础理论研究的统一;坚持自力更生和争取外援的统一;坚持社会革命和技术革命的统一;坚持培养人文精神和科学精神的统一;坚持党的领导和百花齐放、百家争鸣的统一;坚持发挥科学技术专家和普通工人群众的作用。毛泽东科技思想为邓小平科技思想的形成和发展奠定了理论基础。     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Russia's Energy Policy, 1992-2005

A team comprising a former Russian policymaker and American analysts of the current Russian energy policy examines the course of that policy and its limitations during the post-Soviet period. In the process, they critically analyze key problems in Russia's oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors that represent a potential drag on growth of the entire Russian economy and at the very least call into question the sustainability of further increases in exports to the West. The authors explore in considerable depth and detail both the factors underlying the recent increase in government intervention in the energy sector and the likely consequences for domestic production, consumption, resource security, and critical exports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

Russia's Energy Policy: A Divergent View

A noted American analyst of Russian, Central Asian, and Transcaucasian oil and gas industries and markets offers his own perspective on issues raised in the preceding paper on Russia's energy policy (Milov et al., 2006). While generally concurring that Russia indeed pursues an ad hoc (rather than systemic) energy policy, he expresses divergent views on the role of government-regulated versus market-based pricing in final and primary energy use, reasons for the intense flows of oil and gas to Europe, the role of pipelines in determining oil export allocations, and the contribution of regional monopolies and refining capacity to domestic oil product prices. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 20 references.     

Can Russia Break the "Resource Curse"?

A noted European economist argues that the Russian economy and its post-2000 growth have been heavily dependent on natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, and are bound to remain so for some time to come. Given that many economists have come to view rich natural resource endowments as a "curse" that undermines development, the question arises as to whether Russian economic development is doomed. The author argues that while the challenges posed by resource dependence are serious, they can be overcome, or at least substantially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies as the examples of Australia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries demonstrate. He analyzes what these economic policies are for Russia, and how to set up Russian economic and political conditions to facilitate their implementation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E6, O1, O52, P2, Q43. 4 figures, 2 tables, 50 references.     

China's "Dash for Gas": Challenges and Potential Impacts on Global Markets

Two UK-based researchers examine the significant recent growth in China's demand for natural gas, a fuel not long ago considered of marginal importance but now viewed as critical for the country's future economic growth. Based on a range of databases as well as industry and media reports, the authors demonstrate how rapid demand growth since 2005 has transformed China from a minor, self-sufficient gas producer to a major buyer on international gas markets. They also analyze projections for future demand growth (25 years), showing China's demand for gas will grow faster that anywhere else in the world, and explore the potential for development of China's substantial domestic gas reserves to mitigate import demand over the short to medium term. The study concludes with an assessment of China's potential impact on global gas markets over short, intermediate, and long time horizons.