Modelling Potential Socio-economic Determinants of Building Fires in South East Queensland

This paper investigates the relationships between areas of building fire incidence, levels of socio-economic disadvantage and the underlying socio-economic characteristics in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, Australia. Disaggregated fire incident data was acquired from the Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS) and then aggregated to the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defined index of socio-economic disadvantage (called ‘SEIFA’) has been used as the basis to identify relationships between socio-economic disadvantage and building fires. A regression model was then developed to predict the incidence of building fires using a range of socio-economic variables. Five significant predictors were identified that include: i) percentage of unemployed, ii) proportion of Indigenous population, iii) families living in separate dwellings, iv) one parent, and v) parent families with children less than fifteen years of age. Results also show that the distribution of building fires varies markedly across the SEQ region, with some of the Brisbane inner suburbs, areas of high socio-economic disadvantage, and parts of inland SEQ associated with relatively high fire rates.     

The legal grading of sexual citizenship: sentencing practices in Norwegian rape cases

This article maps and discusses the legal processing of rape cases in Norwegian appellate courts. Drawing on data from a multivariate regression analysis and a qualitative frame analysis, we examine the significance of space, accuser-convict prior relationship, the social context, accuser-convict marital relationship status, and convict racial background for grading of sentences in rape cases. The data-set consists of 176 rape cases that were processed in 2011 and 2012. Excluding acquittals and controlling for the application of relevant legal provisions, we find that sentences are reduced by 30% if the rape occurs in a private space as opposed to a public space. If the rape occurs at a party or is committed by a perpetrator who is a member of a racial majority, we find that sentences are reduced by 20%. A prior relationship between the victim and the perpetrator reduces sentencing by 18%. Results regarding victims of marital rape are inconclusive. The study concludes that sentencing is stratified according to the public/private divide, prior relationship, social context and race. Despite progress made on behalf of victims of domestic violence and a gradual implementation of stricter sentencing in line with legislative intentions, the legal processing of rape cases is permeated by race and gender discrimination.     

Access to capital markets and the geography of productivity leaders and laggards

This paper examines whether access to the capital market of convertible and nonconvertible bonds affects total factor productivity (TFP) for the population of Italian joint stock manufacturing companies, based in highly segmented local financial markets, between 2007 and 2017. The hypothesis, well grounded in the literature, is that long-term capital favors investment in intangibles and other risky assets necessary for productivity growth. To identify this effect, we exploit the exogenous shock of the Italian banking deregulation of the mid-1990s as an instrument for firm-level access to capital, interacted with distance from logistic networks. These reforms changed the distribution of the type of branches at the local level, increasing the share of joint stock banks, which have high connections to international capital markets. This geographical reallocation of banking activities ultimately affected firms' financial structure, favouring their access to capital, even when based in peripheral financial areas. Firms which issued instruments of market debt achieved higher levels of productivity and a higher probability to reach top percentiles of productivity distribution.     

An Illustration of the Use of an Atypicality Index in Provenancing British Stone Axes

An atypicality index has been used to compare the chemical compositions of 11 British prehistoric implements (axes and axe‐hammers, and a mace) with previously suggested and likely sources in South Wales (Group XIII spotted dolerite from the Carnmenyn area, and Group VIII rhyolite from Carnalw). Atypicality indices together with mineralogy indicate that only two out of six supposed Group XIII implements are likely to be Group XIII, and only one of the five rhyolite implements is likely to originate from Carnalw. These results provide statistical support for earlier provenancing of seven of the implements, and provide the first geochemical source information for four implements. The results illustrate the usefulness of the atypicality index in archaeology, and support the idea that Groups XIII and VIII comprise a larger variety of chemical types than previously thought. Further work is now needed to determine how prevalent this variety is within these implement groups.     

基于干旱脆弱性的农户系统体制转换及其影响机制——以榆中县中连川乡为例

通过问卷调查和半结构式访谈获取数据,基于社会-生态系统多体制视角,对农户系统体制及状态进行辨识,并构建农户对干旱的脆弱性指数对其进行评价;采用多元logistic模型识别农户系统体制转换影响因素,并从客观动因、主观动因和决定动因三方面,探讨农户系统体制转换的影响机制。研究表明:①研究区农户系统体制从传统农业体制,向新型农业体制和非农型体制转换。农户由于自身转化力不同,转换结果存在差异。②自然环境和社会经济发展驱动系统体制发生转换,农户期望(教育支出和家庭责任)决定转换方向,农户转变生计方式的能力(行为认知、劳动力比重和社会网络)决定转换程度,在其作用下,农户体制和状态出现差异并最终导致脆弱性分异。     

我国区域中心城市航空物流与宏观经济的匹配性及空间分布研究

通过建立计量分析模型研究区域中心城市航空物流与宏观经济的内在关系,提出匹配度参考系数和匹配性分析象限图,将我国航空物流与经济的匹配程度划分为六类:以航空物流为推动的高度匹配型、以经济为拉动的高度匹配型、航空物流为支撑的良性匹配型、经济为支撑的良性匹配型、航空物流为瓶颈的低度匹配型、经济为瓶颈的低度匹配型。以我国30座区域中心城市2000年至2013年的统计数据为样本,实证研究了航空物流与宏观经济的匹配程度和相互作用特点,并对各匹配类型提出了针对性的发展建议。研究结果表明,中国东部地区与西部地区的中心城市在匹配性上存在巨大差异,高度匹配型城市在地理空间上呈现出明显的"T"形分布特点。     

基于健康视角的城市就业者通勤模式选择及影响因素研究——以南京市为例

中国城市出现的居住和就业"空间不匹配"现象,对就业者日常通勤时间和方式产生了重要影响,进而影响就业者健康状况。依托南京市居民身体活动和健康状况问卷调查数据,根据不同通勤方式身体活动量的大小将就业者的通勤模式分为积极通勤、公共交通通勤和机动车通勤三种,构建多项Logistic回归模型探究城市就业者通勤模式的选择及相关影响因素。结果表明:(1)就业者对自身健康的主观认知和客观身体健康状况以及是否散步等健康行为显著影响通勤模式的选择;(2)通勤时间、加班等与工作相关的变量与就业者机动车通勤显著正相关,雨雪天气与积极通勤显著负相关;(3)个体社会经济属性中性别、年龄、家庭人口规模以及是否拥有小汽车等显著影响通勤模式选择。基于研究结果,本文对如何引导就业者选择更加积极和可持续的通勤模式提出了政策建议。     

Applying the technique of image classification to climate science: the case of Andalusia (Spain)

This paper proposes an empirical climate classification method based on the application of multivariate statistics. In this method, the technique of supervised and unsupervised image classification is used to classify the data and define climatic units. envi software is used to perform the image classification, specifically, the Iterative Self‐Organizing Data Analysis Technique algorithm. Supervised classification is also applied based on reference variables, fundamental parameters and a classifier. The obtained results display greater objectivity, reliability, operability, accessibility and reproducibility than previous climate classifications devised for the region of Andalusia (Spain), taking into account that these previous classifications were not based on quantitative criteria.     

旅游动机与旅游者重游意向的关系研究:基于logistic模型

了解旅游者的旅游动机以及哪些动机影响旅游者再一次重游行为,是旅游地经营管理的关键问题。本文从旅游动机出发,开发设计旅游测量问卷,以网上调查为手段,对旅游者的旅游动机和重游意向之间的关系进行了研究。通过对问卷的因子分析和主成分分析,首先提炼出了六项旅游动机公因子;然后通过logistic回归模型对旅游动机与旅游重游之间的因果关系进行测量。结果发现:旅游动机确实影响旅游者的重游决策,但并不是所有的旅游动机都会使旅游者产生重游意向。在所提炼的六项旅游动机公因子中,"休闲度假动机"和"学习提高动机"对旅游者的重游意向有着正向影响,重游概率随着这两个动机的提高而增大;"探新求异动机"与"获取声望动机"对旅游者的重游意向有负面影响,重游概率随着两方面动机的增高而减小;而"感情交流动机"与"外界刺激动机"与旅游者重游意向没有显著影响。