旅游经济转型升级进程中的市场主体论

随着旅游市场基础稳步向国民大众的日常消费回调以及资本、技术和人才对传统业态的改造,我国旅游经济正在进入全面深化改革、创新发展驱动和打造旅游经济升级版的关键时期。发现和培育新型市场主体,推动传统业态特别是国有旅游企业的现代化变革,从而确立企业在旅游经济运行中的市场主体地位,是政策设计的战略选项,也是构建当代旅游发展理论的学术支撑点。     

人工神经网络：一种新的旅游市场需求预测系统

本探究了人工神经网络(ANN)作为一种新型的预测系统在旅游市场需求研究中的重要性,并指出：在对旅游需求进行预测时,人工神经网络较之多元回归分析方法适用范围更广,显性更强。     

试析陈云关于利用国际市场的思想

新中国成立后,陈云在利用国际市场方面进行了积极的探索。建国初期,他主要是探索国际物资市场的规律,并逐步形成了外汇与物资平衡的思想;20世纪70年代,他提出要研究和利用资本主义,并将注意力从国际物资市场转向国际金融市场;改革开放后,他在继续提倡利用资本主义市场的同时。强调利用外资要保持清醒的头脑,要将引进工作与国内工作平衡好。陈云的这些关于利用国际市场的思想,成为各个时期中国共产党处理国内经济与对外经济关系的重要指导思想。     

女性旅游安全研究进展与启示

随着女性旅游市场的发展,女性旅游者安全问题日益明显。但目前针对这方面的研究还很有限,从世界范围看,世界各国和地区的女性旅游研究普遍存在着理论创新落后于现实发展的状况,女性旅游安全研究更是如此;从国内看,我国关于女性旅游安全研究几近空白,然而相关媒体对女性旅游安全事故的报道却屡见报端;从国外研究现状看,目前针对女性旅游安全研究的文章主要集中在旅游安全感知、风险认知、女性性旅游中的不安全行为、孕妇旅游安全的保障和风险等角度。因此,总体来讲,国内外学者对女性旅游安全研究尚处于初级阶段,研究深度和广度有待扩展和加强。
本文在搜集国内外相关资料的基础上,对近20多年来的研究成果进行了梳理、归类和总结,从女性旅游者的心理不安全感、不安全旅游行为、安全事故、安全预防四个方面对相关文献进行了分析、研究和评述,并针对目前的研究现状对女性旅游安全研究的趋势和必要性进行了预测和分析,旨在进一步丰富旅游安全的理论内容,并为女性旅游安全问题的后续研究提供建议和参考。     

传统旅游目的地生态旅游潜在市场及开发策略初探--以四川峨眉山风景区为例

对生态旅游和生态游客的概念进行了综述,通过面访调查和侧面观测技术,研究了峨眉山生态旅游潜在客源市场的基本状况,划分了游客的生态类型倾向度,得出他们多属一般型和组织型生态游客的结论。建立多种数学模型估测了生态旅游的市场规模,从市场分析的角度,提出了峨眉山生态旅游的基本开发策略。     

ÉVOLUTION DE L'AGRICULTURE MARAÎCHÈRE AU QUÉBEC DE 1940 À 1990: SUPERFICIES,PRODUCTIONS ET DIVERSITÉ

Depuis plus d'un siècle, l'agriculture québécoise en général, et la production maraîchère en particulier, ont subi d'importantes transformations. Cette étude historique vise à comprendre comment la production maraîchère a évolué par rapport aux changements dans l'environnement décisionnel général de l'agriculture entre 1940 et 1990. L'analyse des données statiques de superficie, de production et de rendement pour 12 légumes ont permis d'identifier trois périodes, intercalées d'années transitoires, dans l'évolution de la production maraîchère référant chacune à une stratégie agricole particulière. La première (1940–1957) correspond à une stratégie agricole de type familial traditionnel; la seconde (1963–1975), à une agriculture marchande spécialisée fondée sur la maximisation des revenus à court terme par intensification; la troisième (1980–1990), à une agriculture marchande diversifiée fondée également sur une maximisation à court terme. Les facteurs externes de l'environnement décisionnel qui ont entraîné ces changements sont identifiés et discutès. For more than a century, Quebec agriculture in general, and market-gardening production in particular, have experienced important changes. This study, using a historical perspective, seeks to understand how market gardening evolved in relation to changes in the broad decision environment for agriculture between 1940 and 1990. Statistical analysis of data on the areas cultivated, production levels, and yields for 12 vegetable crops revealed three distinct periods, separated by periods of transition, in the evolution of market gardening. Each period is characterized by a particular type of agricultural development strategy. The first period (1940–1957) is characterized by a focus on the traditional family form; the second (1963–1975), by a specialized market agriculture driven by short-term income-maximization intensification; the third (1980–1990), by a diversified marketoriented agriculture, also based on short-term income maximization. External environmental factors that stimulated these changes are identified and discussed.     

Social capital determinants and labor market networks

We explore the links between determinants of social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer–employee data with which we measure the strength of labor market networks, data on neighborhood homogeneity that has previously been tied to social capital, and new data—not previously used in the study of social capital—on the number and location of nonprofit sector establishments at the neighborhood level. We use a machine learning algorithm to identify the potential determinants of social capital that best predict neighborhood‐level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds local labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of nonprofit‐oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, fire and rescue services including volunteer fire departments, country clubs and golf courses, labor unions, chamber music groups, hobby clubs, and schools.     

Informal housing,spatial structure,and city compactness

This paper develops a monocentric city model with a formal and an informal sector in the housing industry. While formal developers build houses renting land from landowners, informal developers use land for free. However, informal developers must incur defensive expenditures to avoid government intervention. In equilibrium, at any distance of the central business district (CBD), informal developers use land until the value of the marginal productivity of land equals the defensive expenditures per unit of land. The model shows the land allocated to produce short informal (tall formal) buildings increases (decreases) with distance to the CBD. Thus, the model introduces a new source of spatial variation of building height. The model also shows that a higher level of informal housing increases the spatial size of a city and reduces the height of its buildings.     

北京区县消费品零售市场差异探析

在探讨北京消费品零售市场总量变化的前提下,以吃、穿、用商品构成为出发点,利用集中化程度指数、聚类分析、回归分析等手段,着重分析区县市场的结构性变化,特别是近十几年来的发展趋势,以揭示在社会主义市场经济条件下,区域商品流通的特征,并提出有利市场发展的建议。     

长江三峡库区国内旅游客源市场营销策略研究

1998年以来三峡旅游市场尤其是国内旅游市场的下滑严重影响长江三峡库区旅游的发展.本文分析库区国内旅游市场的营销策略,探讨其复兴与开拓之路.