人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡的双重审视

本文针对中美贸易摩擦不断升级这一现状,提出在国际贸易中,由于各方更加关心以本国货币结算的贸易额度以及实物形式的贸易总量,因此只有在剔除了通货膨胀的条件下,以本国货币结算的贸易总额才能在一定程度上代表对外贸易的实物量的整体理论框架。并利用2006～2011年相关数据从中美两国各自视角对人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡的关系进行实证分析,揭示了两者动态关联性中更深层次的客观现实。研究结果表明：人民币汇率变动对中美贸易影响的程度和方向并不明确,人民币汇率不是中美贸易失衡的主要原因等结论。并提出政府应根据不同商品类别制订区别性政策,积极推进所有权统计体系的建立,加强亚洲国家间货币合作等政策建议。     

On the intrinsic accuracy and precision of luminescence dating techniques for fired ceramics

Luminescence dating techniques have been used extensively for archaeological and geological samples. Such techniques are based on thermally or optically stimulated signals. This paper presents simulations of several luminescence techniques for equivalent dose (ED) estimation for ceramic materials containing quartz. The simulations are carried out using a recently published comprehensive kinetic model for quartz, consisting of 11 electron and hole traps and centers. The complete sequence of the experimental protocols for several thermoluminescence (TL) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) techniques are simulated using the same set of kinetic parameters. The specific simulated protocols are: additive dose TL protocol, predose technique (both additive and multiple activation versions), phototransfer protocol, single aliquot regenerative optically stimulated luminescence (SAR-OSL) protocol, and SAR thermoluminescence protocol (SAR-TL). One hundred random variants of the natural samples were generated by keeping the transition probabilities between energy levels fixed, while allowing simultaneous random variations of the concentrations of the 11 energy levels. The relative intrinsic accuracy and precision of the protocols are simulated by calculating the equivalent dose (ED) within the model, for a given natural burial dose of the sample. The intrinsic accuracy of these techniques is estimated by simulating natural irradiation of the samples with a known burial dose, followed by simulation of the luminescence method used to recover the estimated dose ED. The percent difference between the burial dose and the ED value represents the simulated accuracy of the luminescence technique. The relative intrinsic precision of these techniques is estimated by fitting Gaussian probability functions to the ED values obtained with the 100 model variants. It is found that the various techniques can reproduce natural paleodoses in the range 10 mGy–10 Gy with a typical intrinsic accuracy of +1 to 10%. Techniques based on single aliquot protocols were found in general to be more precise than techniques requiring the use of multiple aliquots. In addition, techniques based on interpolation of experimental data were found to be consistently both more precise and accurate than those based on extrapolation of experimental data.     

Policy Coherence and Component-Driven Policymaking: Arctic Policy in Canada and the United States

This research extends theorizing about the implications of political environments to the content of policy areas. We consider the case of Arctic policy in Canada and the United States as an example of what we label as component-driven policymaking. We show how the lack of a clear constituency and the lack of a stable policy subsystem for the Arctic create a policy environment for which the politics of particular issues dominate Arctic policymaking. The result is a policy space labeled Arctic policy that lacks policy coherence. We suggest that similar features of component-based policymaking help explain limited policy coherence for a variety of policy areas such as policies for children, families, rural areas, urban areas, and women in the United States.     

论19、20世纪之交东欧犹太移民在美国的群体互助

从19世纪80年代持续到一战后初期,东欧犹太人为逃避俄国及其周边国家的反犹迫害浪潮而大批涌向美国。他们在老一辈美国犹太人的慷慨资助下渡过最初的困境后,就着手调动自己有限的资源创立帮助犹太新移民的慈善组织,并且按照乡镇或地区来源建立同乡会共渡生活难关。他们还将欧洲犹太社区中久已存在的无息贷款社移植到美国,无偿为有志创业者提供小额资金。这些互助组织有效地保障了整个东欧犹太移民群体在美国的生存和发展。     

内阁、国会与实力派军阀--20世纪20年代罗文干案始末

20世纪20年代初,军人干政,战乱不息,政府往往成为实力派军阀争夺私人利益的工具。罗文干案件本身的三起三落就体现了各种政治力量之间纷纭复杂的斗争,民主共和政治的衰微。但不能否认在此过程中也始终存在着一种追求国家政治现代化的积极、健康的力量。     

Testing Competing Explanations of Black Opinions on Affirmative Action

Using the 1996 National Black Election Study, I estimate black opinions of affirmative action by developing models that capture the effects of self‐interest, group consciousness, reference groups, and social justice. The method I used is ordered logit. An examination of the data show that, unlike many studies that examine the effects of self‐interest on public opinion, I find that self‐interest matters. I also find that black individuals also support affirmative action from a sense of group consciousness. The results also suggest that some support affirmative action consistent with the reference group theory and the pursuit of social justice.     

湿热加速老化法降低古籍修复用纸伸缩性的研究

纸张在浸湿和干燥过程中的伸缩性是影响古籍修复用纸使用性能的重要指标。为了改善新制修复用纸的伸缩率,实验采用湿热加速老化法处理6种修复用纸样品,测定和分析老化过程对纸样伸缩性的影响。结果表明湿热老化可以显著降低纸样的伸缩性,尤其是能明显降低修复用纸的横向伸缩率和干缩率,短时间的湿热老化就能将新制修复用纸的伸缩率降至接近老纸的水平。     

构建和谐政党重在形成良性的党内利益机制

和谐社会建设关键在党。构建和谐社会要真正发挥党的作用,又是以党内和谐为前提的。党内和谐就是要在党内听取不同的声音、整合不同的利益关系,最终形成强大的合力。能否在党内形成良好的利益分配、协调和运行机制,正是党内和谐的基础所在,也是和谐社会建设的重要方面。     

风景名胜区旅游发展与农村社区居民权益受损分析——以樟江风景名胜区为例

风景区旅游发展中农村社区权益的损害问题是当前旅游和法学研究中的薄弱领域,对其进行深入的研究对于促进社区参与和旅游可持续发展具有较为重要的实践意义。本文以贵州樟江风景名胜区为例,通过实地调查和访谈,从政治人身权利、经济权利和社会文化权利等方面梳理了风景名胜区农村社区居民的权益构成。并结合实地调研资料,阐述了土地征用、景区移民、旅游污染、旅游收入分配等对当地农村社区居民权益的损害问题。     

安徽省旅游业对经济增长拉动效应的实证研究——基于二维度与三指标的探讨

通过构建旅游业依存度、贡献率和拉动率三个指标,从时间和空间两个维度,本文探讨了安徽省旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应。结果表明,安徽省旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应逐渐加大;在中部六省中,安徽省旅游业拉动效应并不突出;在省域内部,各地市旅游业对经济增长拉动效应的空间非均衡现象较突出,且南强北弱的空间格局与旅游资源在等级上南高北低、景区在空间上“南热、中温、北冷”现状具有很强的共轭性。三个指标均具有相对性,当计算拉动效应时,应同时考虑区域尺度的因素。