冷战后亚太地缘政治格局与中国安全利益

冷战后,亚太地区地缘政治格局发生重大变化,中国的主导作用和地位进一步加强,中国在亚太的安全利益向纵深发展。同时,随亚太格局变化产生的国际矛盾斗争,对中国的安全利益构成严峻挑战。政治安全利益、军事安全利益、经济安全利益是中国在亚太地区安全利益的核心成分。政治安全利益内容广泛,包括国家统一、民族关系稳定、反对宗教势力渗透、维护政治稳定等;军事安全利益着重表现为捍卫祖国统一、维护领土完整、防范军事威胁以及军控和防止核扩散;经济安全利益涵盖金融安全、稳定的资金来源和良好的投资环境、资源安全特别是能源安全、市场安全、运输线安全、海外投资安全等。     

游客抽样调查中"拒答"现象的原因分析及应对措施——以崆峒山游客抽样调查为例

本文对游客抽样调查中的拒答现象和拒绝率进行了阐述和分析,探讨了拒答现象产生的原因和应对措施。指出：游客抽样调查中的拒答现象是值得重视又容易忽视的,是旅游流、旅游心理、旅游目的地类型和其他社会因素综合作用的结果,而非单纯地由游客心理决定。所以要降低拒绝率,需要从消除游客心理障碍和提高游客主动参与性入手,促使游客主动配合调查,减少拒绝现象,提高调查的成功率和准确率。     

Vested Interests and the Diffusion of Education Reform across the States

How do interest groups shape the diffusion of policies they oppose across the states? This study explores this question using the case of teachers' unions and education reform policies. Using a novel dataset on charter, voucher, and performance pay policies spanning 1992–2013, I find evidence that strength of the teachers' unions decreases the likelihood of performance pay and that additional strength is less impactful with more Democratic control of the legislature. Teachers' unions are weakly related to a lack of charter laws and do not impact voucher laws. The latter two policies are more strongly associated with policymaker learning and education reform advocacy groups, respectively. These findings suggest that vested interests most strongly impact the policies that most fundamentally threaten their organizational strength and that this effect is conditioned on the party in power; increases in interest group strength are not necessary when policymakers are already sympathetic.     

Defining the community of interest as thematic and cognitive regions

When deciding where to draw the boundaries for electoral districts, officials often strive to ensure that communities of interest are not split up but kept wholly within those boundaries. But what constitutes a community of interest is vague, with legal and academic sources describing either a thematic region with shared demographic and land-use traits, or a cognitive region that is meaningful to people and commonly agreed upon. This study, conducted in the city of Santa Barbara, California, seeks to identify communities of interest at the sub-city level as both thematic regions—by clustering Census tracts and land parcels according to classes of relevant variables—and cognitive regions—by surveying residents about the size and locational extent of their community and finding areas of agreement. We then assess the degree to which the two types of regions overlap as a way to evaluate how well the two meanings correspond. We also examine the amount of overlap between the two sets of regions and the city council electoral districts that were recently created in Santa Barbara. Our study finds that the two types of regions correspond relatively well to each other in this test city, but that the electoral districts correspond more to the thematic regions, understandable given that the district creation made no attempt to survey residents about their beliefs.     

The Influence of Soil Moisture,Temperature and Oxygen on the Oxic Decay of Organic Archaeological Deposits

The sensitivity of organic‐rich archaeological layers at Bryggen in Bergen, Norway, to changes in soil temperatures, water contents and oxygen concentrations is investigated. This is done by linking measurements of oxic decay at varying temperatures and water contents with on‐site monitoring data using a one‐pool decomposition model. The results show that the model can be used to elucidate the current in situ decay and to evaluate where and when the decay takes place. Future investigations need to include long‐term incubation experiments and decay studies at zero or very low oxygen contents in order to improve the robustness of predictions.     

Rates of retrograde metamorphism and their implications for crustal rheology

The rate of reaction of a natural hornblende garnet granulite with water under a range of mid- to lower crustal conditions has been investigated experimentally. In runs of between 7 and 84 days small but measurable amounts of water were consumed, and sheet silicates (300°C, 300 MPa and 400°C, 400 MPa) and/or secondary actinolite (400°C, 400 MPa and 500°C, 500 MPa) were observed to have grown. When normalized to the surface area of the starting materials, hydration rates were in the range of 2–5 × 10⁻⁸ g m⁻² sec⁻¹. These reaction rates imply that a film of water that infiltrated a planar crack with a half width of 100 μm would be completely consumed within c. 100 years. These results imply that where water infiltrates the crust along faults or underlying shear zones in response to a deformation, it will remain as a free phase for only a finite period of time, which in some cases will be less than the repeat time for major earthquakes in the fault system. Thus, the rheology of fault zones and shear zones is likely to be cyclical, with the zone becoming stronger with time as water is consumed, and then weakened by infiltration of water after each rupture.     

Arenas of Power in Climate Change Policymaking

This article investigates the potential linkage between particular policy design ideas and distinctive patterns of politics and power relations. The research examines a sequence of four cases involving the use of the cap‐and‐trade policy design principally to combat global climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Through the lens of arenas of power framework, the comparative case analysis suggests the existence of consistent linkages between particular cap‐and‐trade design ideas, and distinct patterns of political conflict and empowerment. The article concludes with a brief consideration of what the findings suggest about the national politics of climate change policymaking in the United States in the near term, and more important, an assessment of the implications for the further development and refinement of policy theory.     

Play Nice or Pick a Fight? Cooperation as an Interest Group Strategy at Implementation

The open, multilevel nature of U.S. policymaking enables interest group activity throughout the policy process. At policy implementation, groups attempt to secure benefits or ameliorate legislated effects by devising cooperative or conflictual strategies to influence outcomes, especially when agency officials have discretion to design rules and negotiate agreements. Investigating group “street‐level” activity with respect to the Endangered Species Act, this research finds that policy context and resources shape the degree of information and access available to groups, which influences the strategies groups adopt. Groups with access and specialized information will attempt to change or influence policy outcomes cooperatively. Groups with limited technical information are more likely to fight implementation.     

Funding Faction or Buying Silence? Grants,Contracts, and Interest Group Lobbying Behavior

During the past decade, numerous congressional bills and amendments have attempted to curtail lobbying by nonprofit organizations that receive federal grants. These policy efforts grow out of an assumption that federal funds are encouraging advocacy at levels that are excessive and encourage additional government spending. Using survey data on more than 700 organizations based in Washington, DC, this article tests this assumption. The data show that for the most part, organizations receiving federal grants and contracts lobby no more frequently than similar organizations that do not receive such benefits. The exception is contacting federal agencies, which charitable organizations receiving federal funds do slightly more often than similar organizations without such funds. A multivariate analysis assesses federal funding together with other variables theorized to affect lobbying—federal tax status, resource levels, and the nature of the lobbying issue—confirming that while these other variables affect lobbying levels, federal funding does not.     

Geomorphic reconstruction of formation and recession processes of waterfalls of the Kaminokawa river basin on Osumi Peninsula,southern Kyushu,Japan

To assess the geomorphological importance of waterfall recession in volcanic bedrock, we examined recession rates of six waterfalls in the lower reaches of Kaminokawa river basin on the Osumi Peninsula in southern Kyushu. The examination was performed with an empirical equation that uses a dimensionless parameter obtained by dimensional analysis of relevant measured factors, including erosive force, size of waterfall, and bedrock resistance. Welded Ata ignimbrite, formed at approximately 110 ka, may have played an initiating role to maintain such waterfalls because it resists weathering more than other local rocks. Estimated recession rates for the six waterfalls range from 0.2 to 3.0 cm/y, which compare with estimated rates for waterfalls in another region characterised by welded ignimbrite. Comparison of equation‐derived recession rates of waterfalls with actual recession distances from confluences supports the idea that an original waterfall will subsequently split into two distinct waterfalls when it recesses past an upstream junction of two channels. Our findings revealed that all six waterfalls likely would have been at almost the same point lower in the watershed in the past, marking the general site of the original waterfall. Moreover, the ancestral original waterfall is highly likely to have started from a point between the caldera rim and present river mouth. There, a knickpoint was likely caused by the river dropping into an inner part of the caldera, possibly just after the eruption of the Ata ignimbrite. The waterfall erodes upstream away from the caldera basin, and this happens to be to the east.