A Tale of Two Cities: A Decomposition of Recent Fertility Changes in Shanghai and Hong Kong

In the past 20 years, Hong Kong and Shanghai's total fertility rates (TFR) have undergone drastic changes: first declining and then rebounding. We use a decomposition method to assess changes in the TFRs of these two cities during the period 1990–2010. During the period of decline from 1990 to 2000, the decrease in marital fertility rate (MFR) was the major cause behind Shanghai's TFR decline; the decrease in nuptiality and MFR were equally responsible for the decline in Hong Kong's TFR. During the 2000–2010 period, although the decline in nuptiality exerted downward pressure on TFR, both cities experienced an increase in TFR mainly due to an increase in the MFR. Analysis of the difference in TFR between the two cities in 2010/2011, also reveals that Hong Kong's marriage delay has a negative impact on fertility and it is the higher MFR that leads to a higher TFR than Shanghai's TFR. It also shows that a reduction of first- and second-order births is equally responsible for Shanghai's lower MFR. Despite the one-child policy in Shanghai, some couples continue to postpone their first births, while others have even chosen to be childfree (a preferred term to ‘childless’). The tempo distortion is diminishing more prominently in Hong Kong, while the decline in fertility aspiration adds much uncertainty to future fertility trends in Shanghai.     

Reflections on Ukraine's Current Economic Dilemma

A prominent specialist on economic transition in the former Soviet Union presents an overview of Ukraine's economic dilemma in the aftermath of the most recent elections in that country. The author, a former economic advisor to Ukraine's government and co-chair of the UN's Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine, relates his insights into the causes of three acute problems (inflation, corruption, and the lack of structural reforms). Focusing on the state of economic affairs in 2008, the paper, which includes data on economic growth and exchange rates, discusses inter alia the hryvnia's peg to the dollar and the potential consequences of rising food and commodity prices. Included in the analysis is a comparison with Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E58, E60, O52, P26. 34 references.     

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the country's economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the country's federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.     

China's Exchange Rate Controversy: A Balanced Analysis

A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as well as theoretical analysis of a variety of perspectives on the controversy surrounding China's currency, basing his paper on both. The author provides the historical background and comprehensive summaries, focusing on different viewpoints about whether China's currency is undervalued, and thus may contribute to global imbalances. In the paper, he divides observers involved in the controversy into two main camps, namely the ones who find China's trade balances to be sensitive to price effects through exchange rate adjustments and those who emphasize other factors as bearing the responsibility for China's large surpluses, including the U.S. credit bubble emerging before the global financial crisis, as well as a version of Dutch disease.     

1992年以来我国城镇居民居住消费的变化趋势

1992年之后,我国明确了建立社会主义市场经济体制的目标,城镇住房制度改革取得了实质性突破,城镇居民居住消费发生了深刻变化。居民购房公平自由,私有住房的比重急剧攀升,住房设施日益完善,居住环境不断优化,居住开支迅猛增长,城镇居民居住水平获得了前所未有的提高。然而受不正确的思想观念的影响,在居民居住消费过程中,一些诸如住宅私有率过高、住宅面积过大、一房伴终身等严重脱离实际需要和基本国情的问题日益突出。     

银元主币流通与上海洋厘行市的更替

墨西哥鹰洋成为近代中国流通最广的银元主币,历时长达60余年之久。1914年后开铸的袁世凯像新币,逐渐取代鹰洋成为流通中的主币。上海钱业公所和其后的上海钱业公会深谙流通中主币的消长变化态势,审时度势,先后于1915年和1919年取消龙洋和鹰洋行市。鹰洋行市的取消进一步促使国币通行成为主币,使货币兑换市场逐步走向统一,降低社会交易成本;同时也为废两改元准备了条件,促进了近代货币统一化进程。     

游客抽样调查中"拒答"现象的原因分析及应对措施——以崆峒山游客抽样调查为例

本文对游客抽样调查中的拒答现象和拒绝率进行了阐述和分析,探讨了拒答现象产生的原因和应对措施。指出：游客抽样调查中的拒答现象是值得重视又容易忽视的,是旅游流、旅游心理、旅游目的地类型和其他社会因素综合作用的结果,而非单纯地由游客心理决定。所以要降低拒绝率,需要从消除游客心理障碍和提高游客主动参与性入手,促使游客主动配合调查,减少拒绝现象,提高调查的成功率和准确率。     

明代科举各级考试的规模及其录取率

明中叶后,各省直的科考规模在四五千人至数万人之间,平均录取率估计在10%上下。乡试录取率,明初一般在10%上下;成、弘间定为5.9%;嘉靖末年又降为3.3%;而实际录取率又低于此。会试录取率,自洪武至万历中平均为8.6%;其中,洪武至永乐二年平均为21.7%,永乐四年至万历中期平均为8.4%。殿试规模和录取数在理论上皆等于同科会试录取数。永乐二年后,明廷共在51科14938名二、三甲进士中考选了1277名庶吉士,平均录取率为8.55%。上述录取率,都是在朝廷调控下形成的,并非完全自由竞争的结果。而之所以进行调控,又是由官缺的有限性和科举取士用途的单一性矛盾造成的。     

试析古希腊海事贷款高利率成因

海事贷款是古希腊海上贸易的主要“融资”形式之一。与其他形式的货币借贷相比,它的一个主要特征是利率高。公元前4世纪古希腊海事贷款的高利率主要受到了海事活动风险巨大、借贷双方身份特殊、资金供求关系紧张及海事贷款运作的特殊性等因素的影响。海事贷款古希腊海上贸易中起着“融资”和“保险”的双重作用。     

家庭生命周期对旅游者行为的影响研究

揭示家庭生命周期对旅游者行为的影响可以为家庭旅游精准营销提供依据.将城镇居民的家庭生命周期分为筑巢期、满巢Ⅰ期、满巢Ⅱ期、空巢期4个阶段,探究家庭生命周期对其旅游行为的影响,发现:①家庭生命周期影响旅游者的目的地选择行为,不同家庭生命周期旅游者的景区到访率距离衰减速率不同;②家庭生命周期影响旅游者的旅游活动类型偏好,满...