Decomposing the crude divorce rate in five countries: Singapore,Taiwan, South Korea,the UK,and Australia

Over the past few decades, the level of divorce, measured by the crude divorce rate (CDR), has increased dramatically in both the East and the West, but has recently appeared to fall or level off in some countries. To investigate whether the recent decline or stabilisation of the CDRs reflects the real trends in divorce risk, a decomposition analysis was conducted on the changes in the CDRs over the past 20 years on two western and three East Asian countries, namely, the UK, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. The following is observed: the decline in the CDRs of the UK and Australia in the 1990s, and of Taiwan and Korea in the 2000s, was mainly due to shrinkage in the proportion of the married population rather than any reduction in divorce risk; only Australia experienced a genuine reduction in divorce risk between 2001 and 2011; and the continuous increase of Singapore’s divorce level between 1990 and 2010 may be is an unintentional effect of the government’s marriage promotion policies. The shift in the population age structure, and more importantly, the drastic decline in marriage, has seriously distorted the CDRs, making them unreliable indicators for monitoring divorce trends.     

Mortgage finance and culture

Using a nationally representative sample of 12,344 immigrants from 41 different countries of ancestry living in Spain in 2007, we find that the higher the housing‐loan penetration in the country of ancestry, the higher the likelihood of having a mortgage in Spain. Similarly, the higher the mortgage depth in the country of ancestry, the higher the present value of the monthly mortgage payments. Our results suggest that social norms regarding mortgage finance in the country of ancestry matter in determining immigrants’ mortgage finance in the host country. More specifically, the effect of social norms on the decision to have a mortgage (the extensive margin) and the amount of the mortgage payments (the intensive margin) is about one third and tenth the size of the effect of having a college degree on mortgage debt, respectively. Evidence of strong persistence of culture among those with longer tenure in the host country, those who immigrated as children or young adults, and second‐generation immigrants suggests that vertical transmission of beliefs (from parents to children) is a plausible channel of transmission. Perhaps most importantly, we find that cultural attitudes regarding property rights are most relevant when explaining individuals’ decision to get a mortgage, but those regarding credit information matter most when explaining the amount of the mortgage debt.     

The “Science” of Policy Development During Administrative Rulemaking

The legitimacy of government agencies rests in part on the premise that public administrators use scientific evidence to make policy decisions. Yet, what happens when there is no consensus in the scientific evidence—i.e., when the science is in conflict? I theorize that scientific conflict yields greater policy change during administrative policymaking. I assess this claim using data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). I identify policy change—what I refer to as “policy development” in this article—between the FDA's draft and final rules with a novel text analysis measure of shifts in regulatory restrictions. I then go on to find that more policy development does occur with scientific conflict. Moreover, using corresponding survey data, I uncover suggestive evidence that one beneficiary of such conflict may be participating interest groups. Groups lobby harder—and attempt to change more of the rule—during conflict, while an in‐survey experiment provides evidence of increased interest group influence on rule content when scientific conflict is high.     

An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

The Intersection of Narrative Policy Analysis and Policy Change Theory

Narrative policy analysis and policy change theory rarely intersect in the literature. This research proposes an integration of these approaches through an empirical analysis of the narrative political strategies of two interest groups involved in policy debate and change over an eight‐year period in the Greater Yellowstone Area. Three research questions are explored: (i) Is it possible to reconcile these seemingly disparate approaches? (ii) Do policy narrative strategies explain how interest groups expand or contain policy issues despite divergent core policy beliefs? (3) How does this new method of analysis add to the literature? One hundred and five documents from the Greater Yellowstone Coalition and the Blue Ribbon Coalition were content analyzed for policy narrative strategies: identification of winners and losers, diffusion or concentration of costs and benefits, and use of condensation symbols, policy surrogates, and science. Five of seven hypotheses were confirmed while controlling for presidential administration and technical expertise. The results indicate that interest groups do use distinctive narrative strategies in the turbulent policy environment.     

二十一世纪的中日关系

中日两国有着两千多年友好交往的历史,1972年中日恢复邦交正常化以来的30年间,发展是主流,从文化渊源上,日本是中国文化的最大受益国,然而,文化上的诸多貌似相同的因素,孕育了本质上的诸多不同之处,成为两国间产生摩擦的文化原因。二十一世纪的中日关系,定会坚定不移地向前发展,但是,一波三折地前行,似乎是中日关系发展的一种宿命,发展中日友好关系,符合两国人民的共同利益,只要日本正视并反省侵略战争的历史,以真诚的态度友好相处,中日两国友好关系的发展前景是无限美好的。     

犯罪地理学研究的新进展

本文简述了犯罪地理学研究进展的历史,揭示了犯罪地理学研究进展过程中各个阶段的特征。探讨了西方犯罪地理学研究的新进展,论述了实证主义、激进地理学思想、科际整合理论、GIS的引入是目前犯罪地理学发展的新趋势。此外,还探讨了中国犯罪地理学研究的新进展。最后,对21世纪的犯罪地理学研究进行了展望,阐述了犯罪地理学研究的12个热点课题,并指出21世纪将是犯罪地理学大发展的世纪。     

现代大众政治的兴起与其欧洲国际政治效应

以选民范围急剧扩大为主要的直接由来,中、西欧国家政治在19世纪末至20世纪初年普遍转变为现代大众政治。与此相伴,公众舆论对国家对外政策的影响变得显和频繁;各类(特别是殖民、经济和军事三类)利益集团积极干预甚至操纵对外政策的形成;很大程度上植根于大众非理性情感、并且多半由大众传媒表述和助长的极端民族主义和帝国主义则构成欧洲及世界政治中的一大恶性力量。总之,现代大众政治的兴起是欧洲传统外交和国际政治变更的一项重要原因。     

对我国新时期利益群体矛盾的动态分析

本文通过阐述我国新时期利益群体矛盾的表现形式,动态地分析了利益群体矛盾的成因,提出了正确处理新时期利益群体矛盾的指导思想、原则和对策。     

和谐社会构建中利益表达问题的分析与对策

本文从构建和谐社会的基本点——利益协调问题入手,阐述了利益诉求表达渠道对于建立利益协调机制的基础作用,分析了畅通利益诉求表达渠道在构建社会主义和谐社会全局中的重要意义。在总体上将社会利益诉求表达渠道划分为"官方渠道"和"民间渠道"两大类的基础上,分析了各条具体渠道应承担的职责、所存在的问题和应完善的方向。