Factors underlying inflation in Russia 2000–2015

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of continuing inflation in Russia in the period from 2000 to 2015. Although factors causing high inflation changed during this period, such factors as money supply, wages, gas and electricity prices, and ruble exchange rate have been essential factors when analyzing inflation in Russia. This paper focuses on gas and electricity prices that represent state-regulated prices in natural monopoly sectors and that have been factors of price increases specific to Russia. They have been raised by the state in order to narrow the gap between their domestic and international prices. It is suggested that there was a turnaround in 2008 when the role of each inflation factor changed significantly. Concerning the rebound of inflation rate since 2014, the overwhelming influence of depreciation of the ruble is indicated. Institutional factors such as the monopolistic structure of the economy that have kept the inflation rate high in Russia are also suggested.     

Effective gas permeability of Tight Gas Sandstones as a function of capillary pressure – a non‐steady‐state approach

Single‐ and two‐phase (gas/water) fluid transport in tight sandstones has been studied in a series of permeability tests on core plugs of nine tight sandstones of the southern North Sea. Absolute (Klinkenberg‐corrected) gas permeability coefficients (k_gas__inf) ranged between 3.8 × 10^?16 and 6.2 × 10^?19 m² and decreased with increasing confining pressure (10–30 MPa) by a factor 3–5. Klinkenberg‐corrected (intrinsic) gas permeability coefficients were consistently higher by factors from 1.4 to 10 than permeability coefficients determined with water. Non‐steady‐state two‐phase (He/water) flow experiments conducted up to differential pressures of 10 MPa document the dynamically changing conductivity for the gas phase, which is primarily capillary‐controlled (drainage and imbibition). Effective gas permeability coefficients in the two‐phase flow tests ranged between 1.1 × 10^?17 and 2.5 × 10^?22 m², corresponding to relative gas permeabilities of 0.03% and 10%. In the early phase of the nonstationary flow regime (before establishment of steady‐state conditions), they may be substantially (>50%) lower. Effective gas permeability measurements are affected by the following factors: (i) Capillary‐controlled drainage/imbibition, (ii) viscous–dynamic effects (iii) and slip flow.     

The October 2008 Nový Kostel earthquake swarm and its gas geochemical precursor

A gas geochemical precursor anomaly was identified prior to the October 2008 Nový Kostel (Czech Republic) earthquake swarm with a peak magnitude M_L of 3.8. This anomaly was observed as a deviation of CO₂ concentrations from the long‐term annual CO₂ concentration trend in the gas extracted from the scree at the Nový Kostel and Old?i?ská gas monitoring stations, which are directly above the Plesná valley‐Po?átky and Mariánské Lázně fault systems. Both sites are located within the major focal zone of the NW Bohemian swarm earthquake region at the northern edge of the Cheb Basin. A decrease in CO₂ concentration started at Nový Kostel in September 2008, 17 days before the swarm, opposite to the usually increasing annual trend in the autumn period, and ended with a nearly coseismic drop immediately prior to the onset of the first swarm. The CO₂ concentrations at Old?i?ská, deviating from the annual trend, did not further increase after August 2008. The calculated horizontal strain field, based on the data of two permanent Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations, proved there was horizontal compression in this period. The increasing compression along the Plesná valley‐Po?átky and Mariánské Lázně fault systems during the stress build‐up reduced the fault permeability prior to this earthquake swarm as indicated by the decrease in CO₂ concentration. The 17‐day duration of the earthquake precursor at Nový Kostel and about 65 days at Old?i?ská lie within the range of the precursor times that are hypothesized worldwide for an M_L = 3.8 earthquake. The nature of earthquake precursors and their origin are discussed, for example, as an indication of changed fault permeability by stress build‐up in the case of the Nový Kostel swarm earthquake precursor or as fault opening in other cases.     

The New Economics of North American Arctic Oil

Over the past five years there has been a remarkable resurgence in oil and gas exploration in the North American Arctic. From completed disinterest only a half a decade ago the region has attracted billions of dollars in new investments from a host of different international oil companies. Unlike the past booms in the region, which inevitably ended in busts, this new wave of development is different. This article examines the changes in both the Arctic itself as well as the global energy environment and concludes that the North American Arctic will see slow bust sustained development over the coming decades, ultimately becoming one of the last great oil producing regions in the world.     

Atlas of the United States

In an attempt to distinguish between regional physical geography and the Soviet school of landscape science, the author defines the study objects of the two disciplines and provides a useful review of the present state of landscape science in the Soviet Union. Physical geography is said to be concerned with study of the entire geographical shell of the earth, ranging from the troposphere to the bottom of the layer of sedimentary rocks in the earth's crust. Landscape science focuses on the so-called landscape sphere, which is defined as the portion of the geographical shell that lies at or near the surface of the earth and is imbued with present-day life. Although some Soviet geographers treat the term “landscape” as a broad conceptual term (similar to climate), most investigators tend to give the term a classificatory or typological connotation, regarding landscape as the basic unit in a classification of natural geocomplexes. One landscape school focuses on the morphological structure of landscape, the other on model-building of the landscape mechanism.     

THE USE OF ANALYTICAL METHODS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS FOR IDENTIFYING RURAL PLACES WITH GROWTH PROSPECTS: (with particular reference to Kaliningrad Oblast)

One of the key objectives in the rural development program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR is the consolidation of rural settlement in larger places. An example of the dispersed settlement pattern is Kaliningrad Oblast, which has a total of 1,527 rural places ranging from fewer than 5 to more than 2,000 inhabitants, with a total rural population of 195,529 (1970 census). The author shows that growth prospects are dependent on a combination of five factors—geographical setting and level of development; population; fixed assets in agriculture; nonfarm fixed assets; availability of services—and, using correlation analysis, identifies 283 places with prospects of future growth, ranging from 32 in the 51–100 size class to one of more than 2,000 population. The preservation of some small rural places is termed inevitable because many serve as outlying settlements for livestock subdivisions of collective and state farms, and dairy and beef cattle represents a characteristic type of farming in Kaliningrad Oblast.     

Ukraine's Geopolitical Choice, 2009

A noted specialist in international affairs and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine reviews and analyzes the history of independent Ukraine's relations with Russia and the West following the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The author proceeds to examine the multifaceted Western position toward Kyiv as it has evolved through June 2009, paying due attention to the European Union and NATO. He then discusses the factors contributing to the volatility of Ukrainian-Russian relations following the Orange Revolution of 2004, including a range of specific concerns as well as more general Russian desires for a compliant government that would pay deference to key Russian interests. Concluding sections focus on Ukraine's future geopolitical trajectory in the run-up to the country's presidential elections in early 2010 and on internal problems (constitutional, market, and energy reform) that will command urgent attention once the political situation stabilizes and the outlines of a constructive engagement that could be pursued by the West are at hand. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F500, F520, P200. 1 figure, 1 table, 39 references.     

Turkey's "New" Foreign Policy toward Eurasia

Two geographers specializing in Turkey's international relations examine the reframing of foreign policy issues under the country's Justice and Development Party (JDP; also known by its Turkish acronym AKP), in power since 2002. After first locating the JDP within Turkey's current political landscape, the authors investigate how notions of civilizational geopolitics have led to a "new geographic imagination" under JDP that has influenced foreign policy thinking. The authors argue that JDP foreign policy exhibits some continuity with that of earlier governments in terms of activist policies toward Central Eurasia (comprising the Middle East, Central Asia, and Transcaucasia), but are based on a new conceptual foundation that views Turkey not as part of Western civilization but as the emerging leader of its own "civilizational basin" (consisting of the former Ottoman territories plus adjoining regions inhabited by Muslim and Turkic peoples). They then explore the implications for Turkey's future relations with the Central Eurasian region (of which Turkey is assumed to be the leader) and countries of the West (viewed now as "neighbors" but no longer "one of us").     

Development of a multibottle gas‐tight fluid sampler WHATS II for Japanese submersibles/ROVs

This paper summarizes the design and performance of our recently developed gas‐tight fluid sampler WHATS II, especially designed to collect seafloor venting gas‐rich fluid from submersibles/remotely operated vehicles (ROVs). It consists of four 150‐cm³ stainless steel sample cylinders, eight ball valves, a motor‐driven arm, a rail, a peristaltic pump, a control unit, and a flexible Teflon tube connected to a titanium inlet tube. All the parts have been designed to be used at undersea as deep as 4000 m. The motor‐driven arm on the rail can open and close each of the four cylinders. By pumping out distilled water that has filled an open cylinder and the dead spaces of the sampler, we can fill the cylinder with sample fluid. WHATS II can take a maximum of four different gas‐tight samples in a series. The whole operation can be arranged from the cabin, etc., of a submersible/ROV. Use of only one motor to operate eight valves makes the sampler small, light (21 kg in sea water), and easy to handle. In addition, the sampler is able to collect an almost uncontaminated gas‐tight sample from the seafloor. To date, the sampler has been used in more than 90 dive surveys by Japanese submersibles/ROVs, including Shinkai 2000, Shinkai 6500, and Hyper Dolphin, with a success rate of >90%.     

Molecular transport of methane, ethane and nitrogen and the influence of diffusion on the chemical and isotopic composition of natural gas accumulations

Laboratory experiments have been performed to determine diffusion coefficients of natural gas components (methane, ethane and nitrogen) and isotope fractionation effects under simulated in situ pressure (up to 45 MPa effective stress) and temperature conditions (50–200°C) in water‐saturated pelitic and coarse‐grained rocks. Effective diffusion coefficients of molecular nitrogen (0.39 × 10^?11 to 21.6 × 10^?11 m² sec^?1 at 90°C) are higher than those for methane (0.18 × 10^?11 to 18.2 × 10^?11 m² sec^?1 at 90°C). Diffusive flux rates expressed in mass units are generally higher for N₂ than for CH₄. Both methane and (to a lesser extent) nitrogen diffusion coefficients decrease with increasing total organic carbon (TOC) content of the rock samples because of sorption processes on the organic matter. This effect decreases with increasing temperature. Effective diffusion coefficients increase upon a temperature increase from 50 to 200°C by a factor of four. Effective diffusion coefficients and steady‐state diffusive flux decrease with effective stress. Stationary diffusive fluxes drop by 50–70% for methane and 45–62% for nitrogen while effective diffusion coefficients are reduced by 38% (CH₄) and 32–48% (N₂), respectively. Isotope fractionation coefficients of diffusive transport are higher for methane (?1.56 and ?2.77‰) than for ethane (?0.84 and ?1.62‰). Application of the experimental results to geological systems show that diffusive transport has only a low transport efficiency. Significant depletion of natural gas reservoirs by molecular diffusion is only expected in cases of very poor caprock qualities (in terms of thickness and/or porosity) and over extended periods of geological time. Under these circumstances, the chemical and isotopic composition of a gas reservoir will change and maturity estimates based on these parameters may be deceptive. To account for these potential effects, nomograms have been developed to estimate diffusive losses and apply maturity corrections.