日韩东盟8国入境我国旅游与进出口贸易关系的研究

国际旅游与国际贸易是相互联系的,旅游引发贸易、贸易推动旅游。本文在前期研究工作的基础上,提出了一个旅游与贸易互动的三阶段模型,即旅游引发贸易、贸易推动旅游和偏好-容量限制3个阶段。以日韩东盟8国为例,选用1986年-2009年统计数据,分析了8国入境我国旅游与进出口贸易的关系,构建了入境客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易和进出口贸易3组24个推拉方程。在此基础上,以1992年和2002年为分界点,分析了各阶段入境客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易增长率的变化及弧弹性;依据每万人次入境旅游引发的进出口贸易强度,将日韩东盟8国划分为四种类型,分析了近10年来旅游引起进出口贸易强度的变化,为通过旅游拉动贸易或通过贸易推动入境旅游发展提供了科学依据。     

南京都市圈空间相互作用时空演变分析

利用改进引力模型并结合GIS 方法,分析2000 年以来南京都市圈县域尺度空间相互作用的时空演变,探讨圈域发展的问题与对策。结论如下：南京都市圈县市空间联系强度不断增强,南京主城与其它县市相互作用强度最高,其次为沿江各县市间、地级市主城区与其郊县间,南京、扬州、镇江、马鞍山等所辖县市间出现了联系强度较高的网络,有一体化发展趋势;历年县市潜力值都由最高峰的南京主城区为中心向四周递减,呈圈层式结构,在向外扩展过程中存在空间变异性,高潜力区沿江伸展,随着圈域内其它地区的发展,单一核心的结构开始发生变化;最后总结都市圈发展过程,提出圈域一体化发展的政策、交通、产业措施。     

Placing social interaction: An integrative approach to analyzing past built environments

A growing recognition of the vital role that built space plays in social reproduction has created a need for analytical methods and interpretive frameworks with which to investigate this relationship in archaeological datasets. I address this by developing an integrative approach that emphasizes the role of the built environment as the context for interactions through which social structures are created, transformed and reproduced. This approach uses access analysis to examine how buildings structure patterns of movement and encounter that allow social actors to engage in or avoid particular forms of interaction. With its focus on the topological properties of built space, however, access analysis does not take adequate account of a building’s symbolic aspects, especially architectural characteristics and furnishings that social actors mobilize in the creation of meaningful contexts for interaction. I therefore integrate access analysis with an examination of how built environments encode meanings and nonverbally communicate them to inhabitants and visitors, potentially influencing their actions and interactions. The integrative approach allows determination of probable contexts for various types of social interactions during which social identities could be displayed, negotiated and reified. I conclude by demonstrating the potential of this approach with an analysis of the monumental Ashlar Building from the Late Bronze Age (c. 1650–1100 BC) site of Enkomi, Cyprus.     

Opportunities and constraints for intensive agriculture in the Hawaiian archipelago prior to European contact

Intensive agricultural systems interact strongly and reciprocally with features of the lands they occupy, and with features of the societies that they support. We modeled the distribution of two forms of pre-European contact intensive agriculture – irrigated pondfields and rain-fed dryland systems – across the Hawaiian archipelago using a GIS approach based on climate, hydrology, topography, substrate age, and soil fertility. Model results closely match the archaeological evidence in defined locations. On a broader scale, we calculate that the youngest island, Hawai'i, could have supported 572 km² of intensive agriculture, 97% as rain-fed dryland field systems, while Kaua'i, the oldest island, could have supported 58 km², all as irrigated wetland systems. Irrigated systems have higher, more reliable yields and lower labor requirements than rain-fed dryland systems, so the total potential yield from Kaua'i (49k metric tons) was almost half that of Hawai'i (97k metric tons), although Kaua'i systems required only 0.05 of the agricultural labor (8400 workers, versus 165,000 on Hawai'i) to produce the crops. We conclude that environmental constraints to intensive agriculture across the archipelago created asymmetric production efficiencies, and therefore varying potentials for agricultural surplus. The implications both for the emergence of complex sociopolitical formations and for anthropogenic transformation of Hawaiian ecosystems are substantial.     

唐代镂空刻花涂金银香球及其西传

上世纪后半叶西安郊区出土四批八件银香球,其内部结构设计奇巧,设计原理与现代陀螺仪中的万向支架相同。在马穆鲁克王朝统治下的埃及和叙利亚,金属匠师对唐代香球进行了非常精确的仿制。13-15,世纪香球及其制造技术西传欧洲,对其时的科学技术发展产生了深远影响。     

Human corpse manipulation and the body as symbol: A case study from the Eastern Pampa–Patagonia transition (Argentina) during the Final Late Holocene

Human body manipulation and secondary burials are widespread funerary practices in many areas of the world. The archaeology of the Pampas and North-Eastern Patagonia, Argentina, is no exception. In this paper, archaeological case studies from the lower basin of the Colorado River during the Final Late Holocene (ca. 1000–250 years BP) are presented and discussed. Secondary burials were recovered that indicated an intentional manipulation of bodies. Evidences of cut marks and the coloring of bone surfaces were recorded. The bundles were composed of individuals of both sexes and diverse age categories. The Pampean region and North-Eastern Patagonia witnessed significant hunter–gatherer population dynamics during the last 1000 years BP. Climatic, ecologic, demographic, and economic explanations have been proposed as the background to these changes. In this paper, it is argued that accompanying these factors, as part of a broader socio-cultural scenario, were significant social interaction networks and processes of social complementarity between groups. In this context, it is proposed that the complexity observed in relation to the handling of bodies is part of a worldview in which the body was seen as material culture – as a symbol – that played an important role for the community in group identity maintenance in a cultural context undergoing significant organizational changes.     

Bone reactions on a pliocene cetacean rib indicate short‐term survival of predation event

There is little osteological evidence of non‐lethal predation events in the archaeological or vertebrate paleontological record. A small section of Pliocene cetacean rib collected from the Yorktown Formation within the PCS Phosphate Mine (formerly Lee Creek Mine), Aurora, North Carolina, U.S.A., shows evidence of this kind of trophic interaction. In this case study, we offer a diagnosis of bone traumatic pathology in which three bone‐forming lesions on the partial rib are interpreted as the reaction to a bite inflicted by a macro‐predator, the first such report from a marine environment. In addition to the three well‐defined lesions, a thin layer of woven bone covers much of the remaining cortical bone. The combination of the three bone‐forming lesions and the thin layer of woven bone suggest the presence of an inflammatory process almost certainly caused by infection secondary to the trauma. Survival following the traumatic event was probably less than 6 weeks. The Neogene chondrichthyan fauna from this locality preserves several large predators, including Carcharocles megalodon, Carcharodon carcharias, Isurus xiphidon and Parotodus benedeni, which were all capable, at least in terms of their size, of having bitten the cetacean. Although most of the odontocetes known from the Yorktown Formation were too small to have inflicted this wound, some of the physeterids may have been large enough to have caused the lesions on the partial rib. This evidence of predation in Pliocene whale bone raises the possibility of similar lesions being found in whale bone recovered from archaeological sites. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time‐bubbles of nationalism: dynamics of solidarity ritual in lived time

The growth of modern nationalism can be attributed to structural causes, especially the growth of the strong bureaucratic state that penetrates society, creating cultural uniformity and national identity. But structurally based nationalism need not be very intense, or constant; even when institutionalised in periodic formal rituals, it can be routine, low in emotion – even boring. We need to explain sudden upsurges in popular nationalism, but also their persistence and fading in medium‐length periods of time. Nationalist surges are connected with geopolitical rises and falls in the power‐prestige of states: strong and expanding states absorb smaller particularistic identities into a prestigious whole; weaker and defeated states suffer delegitimation of the dominant nationality and fragment in sudden upsurges of localising nationalities. Passing from macro‐patterns to micro‐sociological mechanisms, conflict producing solidarity is a key mechanism: dramatic events focus widespread attention and assemble crowds into spontaneous ‘natural rituals’ – mass‐participation interaction rituals, as distinct from formal rituals. Evidence from public assemblies and the display of national symbols following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 (9/11) shows an intense period of three months, then gradual return to normal internal divisions by around six months. Spontaneous rituals of national solidarity are produced not only by external conflict but by internal uprisings, where an emotional upsurge of national identity is used to legitimate insurgent crowds and discredit regimes. Although participants experience momentary feelings of historic shifts, conflict‐mobilised national solidarity lives in a 3–6‐month time‐bubble, and needs to institutionalise its successes rapidly to have long‐term effects.     

A spatial interaction model of vote dispersion

How do votes disperse through a territory? Studies of spatial voting patterns have largely focused on the influence of local factors on voting. The “Friends and Neighbors” model (Key (1949)) explains the advantage of candidates running for office in the locality with which they are associated (Arzheimer and Evans (2012, 2014): Collignon and Sajuria (2018); Horiuchi et al. (2018); Jankowski (2016); Hunt (2020); Munis (2021)), and the “neighbor” effect helps to explain why votes spread. More recent studies have found that the dispersion of votes decreases with distance (Put et al. (2020); Arzheimer and Evans (2012)). However, we know little about how spatial patterns of voting emerge or the mechanism behind the neighbor effect. We argue that this effect depends on the neighbors’ access to information about a candidate, which is constrained by the way information flows. Although scholars have argued that information is a relevant driver explaining the dispersion of votes (Bowler et al. (1993); Arzheimer and Evans (2012); Evans et al. (2017); Campbell, Cowley, Vivyan, and Wagner (2019)), no research has examined the relevance of the network through which information flows. We propose that a spatial interaction model (Wilson (1971)) allows us to predict where this information flows or the voting pattern that will form. Taking advantage of a quasi-natural experiment in Brazilian legislative elections in 1974 and 1978, we show that votes spread through areas of influence created by a hierarchy of cities based on the flows of exchanges among them, including information. We then use our spatial interaction model to predict voting patterns in the elections of 1978 using data from the 1974 elections. Our findings show that the spatial interaction model results fit the data quite well and can help predict spatial patterns of voting.